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US June Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts, Delaying Fed Rate Cuts and Causing Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dip | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/3/2025 12:33:59 PM

US June Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts, Delaying Fed Rate Cuts and Causing Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dip

US June Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts, Delaying Fed Rate Cuts and Causing Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dip

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. June jobs report significantly exceeded expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and impacting the cryptocurrency market. The economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, surpassing the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This strong economic data reinforces the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy. Consequently, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July surged from 75% to 95% following the report, according to CME FedWatch data. In the immediate aftermath, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000, after briefly topping $110,000 for the first time in a month.

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Analysis

Strong Jobs Data Jolts Rate Cut Expectations and Halts Bitcoin's Rally


The cryptocurrency market faced an abrupt shift in sentiment on Thursday following the release of a surprisingly robust U.S. June jobs report. The data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly outpacing the 110,000 consensus forecast. This unexpected strength was further compounded by a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, beating expectations of 4.3%. This powerful economic data immediately altered the landscape for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), as it reinforces the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and dampens hopes for an imminent interest rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has consistently argued for patience, citing a strong economy, and this report provides substantial evidence to support his position. The immediate market reaction saw the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in its upcoming July meeting soar from 75% to 95%, according to CME FedWatch tool data. This dramatic repricing underscores the market's pivot towards a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment, creating a significant headwind for assets that thrive on liquidity and lower borrowing costs.



Bitcoin's Price Action: Technical Levels to Watch


Just hours before the report, Bitcoin was demonstrating bullish momentum, successfully breaking the $110,000 barrier for the first time in approximately a month. The BTCUSDT pair registered a 24-hour high of $110,493.51. However, the positive jobs data acted as a powerful catalyst for a reversal. In the minutes following the release, the price of BTC dipped sharply, falling below $109,000 before finding some stability. At the time of this analysis, BTCUSDT is trading around $109,967, indicating a battle between buyers and sellers at this crucial psychological level. The rejection from the $110,500 area now establishes it as a formidable short-term resistance. Traders will be closely monitoring the 24-hour low of $107,915.10 as the first major support level. A sustained break below this point could trigger further selling pressure, potentially targeting lower support zones. The trading volume of over 88 BTC on this pair suggests significant activity as traders digest the macroeconomic news. In contrast to crypto's dip, traditional markets reacted positively, with U.S. stock index futures rising and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking nine basis points to 4.36%, reflecting a classic risk-off rotation away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin in the face of higher rates.



Altcoin Market Reacts with Mixed Signals


The ripple effects of the macroeconomic news were felt across the altcoin market, though the performance was not uniform. While Bitcoin's immediate trajectory turned bearish, several major altcoins displayed notable strength, suggesting capital rotation and idiosyncratic catalysts are also at play. The ETHBTC pair, a key indicator of Ethereum's strength relative to Bitcoin, posted a significant gain of 4.55% to trade at 0.02389 BTC. This indicates that some traders may be moving capital into Ethereum, perhaps in anticipation of its own specific drivers. Similarly, Avalanche (AVAX) showed impressive momentum, with the AVAXBTC pair surging 6.73% on a substantial volume of nearly 860 BTC. Cardano (ADA) also outperformed, with ADABTC climbing 5.9% to a new 24-hour high. However, not all altcoins shared this fate. The SOLBTC pair dipped slightly by 0.23%, and BNBBTC remained largely flat. This divergence highlights a key theme for traders: in a market dominated by macro uncertainty, asset selection becomes paramount. While a hawkish Fed outlook is a drag on the entire crypto space, tokens with strong individual narratives or technical setups can still find pockets of bullish momentum.



Looking ahead, the trading landscape has been fundamentally reshaped. The focus now shifts from a potential July rate cut to the Fed's September meeting, for which traders still price a 78% chance of a cut, down from 95% before the jobs report. A subtle dovish point within the otherwise hawkish report was the slightly cooler-than-expected wage growth; average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month, missing the 0.3% forecast. This could be a silver lining for bulls, as slowing wage inflation is a key metric the Fed watches. However, the headline payroll and unemployment numbers are overwhelmingly dominant in the current narrative. With U.S. markets closing early on Thursday and remaining shut Friday for the July 4th holiday, traders should be cautious of potentially thin liquidity and heightened volatility. For Bitcoin, the path forward is now contingent on its ability to reclaim the $110,000 level. Failure to do so could confirm a local top and usher in a period of consolidation or correction as the market fully digests the delay in anticipated monetary easing.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.

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