According to @rovercrc, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has dropped to just 22% on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, its lowest level since late February. This marks a significant reversal from a peak of 66% in April, which was fueled by concerns over President Trump's tariff announcements and warnings from former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as cited in the report. The improved sentiment is reportedly driven by easing trade tensions with China and a market theory dubbed the 'TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out)' trade, where tariff threats are expected to be reversed. Major financial institutions are also more optimistic, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 12-month recession odds from 45% to 30%. This reduction in macroeconomic risk is generally viewed as bullish for risk-on assets, potentially improving trading sentiment for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and the broader digital asset market.

According to @rovercrc, while Bitcoin (BTC) holds firm above $107,000, with BTCUSDT trading around $108,026, several major altcoins are showing signs of profit-taking. The analysis notes that Dogecoin (DOGE) fell nearly 4%, Tron (TRX) slipped 5.5%, and other assets like XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) experienced losses up to 3%. Ether (ETH), despite recent outperformance, is also cooling off after briefly touching $2,800, now trading near $2,497. However, a Coinbase Research report projects a constructive outlook for the second half of 2025, fueled by improving macroeconomic conditions, corporate adoption, and regulatory clarity. The report highlights the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker jumping to 3.8% and anticipates Federal Reserve rate cuts. Progress on crypto legislation, such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, is expected to provide structural tailwinds for BTC. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus added that mainstream sentiment has turned positive, citing Circle's IPO and companies adopting BTC treasury strategies. Similarly, Thomas Perfumo of Kraken noted that spot ETFs are absorbing supply faster than anticipated within a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment, creating a virtuous cycle for the market.

According to @KobeissiLetter, trader sentiment on a U.S. recession has improved significantly, with odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket dropping to a low of 22%. This shift reflects easing trade tensions and more optimistic economic outlooks from institutions like Goldman Sachs, which cut its 12-month recession odds to 30%. In a widely expected move, the U.S. Federal Reserve held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. However, the Fed's updated projections signal a more hawkish stance, with forecasts for lower GDP growth in 2024 (down to 1.4% from 1.7%), higher inflation (PCE up to 3% from 2.7%), and fewer rate cuts expected in 2026 and 2027. Despite the less dovish long-term outlook, the crypto market showed minimal reaction, with Bitcoin (BTC) remaining stable around $104,200 immediately following the announcement, suggesting the decision was already priced in by traders.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has impacted cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 147,000, surpassing the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This robust data reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, with CME FedWatch odds for holding rates steady in July jumping to 95% post-report. Consequently, Bitcoin's price dipped from a monthly high of over $110,000 to just under $109,000. The provided market data confirms BTC trading around $108,058. In a broader context, the author also presents a long-term vision of an 'Automated Abundance Economy' where AI and automation could generate immense wealth, potentially distributed via Universal Basic Income (UBI), fundamentally altering the nature of work and the economy. This futurist perspective suggests a world where digital assets and decentralized systems could play a crucial role in a new economic paradigm driven by technology rather than traditional labor.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to potentially reach a new all-time high in July, driven by strong macroeconomic factors. The analysis points to U.S. equity indexes reaching record highs, which often leads to capital flowing into alternative assets like Bitcoin. The article highlights that the U.S. M2 money supply has hit a record $21.9 trillion, increasing overall market liquidity and the search for assets that can hedge against inflation. Furthermore, a post by Ray Dalio is cited, warning that rising U.S. government debt could lead to significant financial disruptions, potentially increasing the appeal of assets like BTC. The summary also notes a seasonal advantage, as July has historically been a positive month for Bitcoin, with average gains of around 7%.

According to @AltcoinGordon, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to challenge its all-time high, driven by powerful macroeconomic tailwinds and U.S. fiscal policy. The analysis highlights that President Trump's proposed 'Big Beautiful Bill' and his comments suggesting economic growth will offset deficits are strengthening the bull case for BTC as an inflation hedge. This sentiment is echoed by crypto analyst Will Clemente, who noted such policies make Bitcoin and gold preferable to U.S. Treasuries. Furthermore, hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warned that the bill could push U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio towards 130%, increasing the appeal of hard assets. With the U.S. M2 money supply at a record $21.9 trillion and a historically strong July for BTC, market conditions appear favorable. Technical analysis shows BTC finding support at $107,300 while trading near $108,000, with significant volume confirming upward momentum.

According to @rovercrc, a report from Coinbase Research outlines a constructive outlook for crypto markets in the second half of the year, driven by several key factors. A strengthening U.S. macroeconomic backdrop, indicated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker jumping to 3.8% QoQ, is easing recession fears and boosting investor sentiment. The report suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is set to benefit from these tailwinds, as well as its appeal as an inflation hedge amid declining dollar dominance. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is improving with the Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill and the potential CLARITY Act, which would define roles for the SEC and CFTC. Corporate adoption is also increasing, supported by new mark-to-market accounting rules, though this introduces risks related to debt-funded crypto purchases. While over 80 crypto ETF applications are under SEC consideration, the report notes that altcoins may lag behind Bitcoin unless they experience specific catalysts like individual ETF approvals.

According to @cas_abbe, a constructive outlook for crypto markets in the second half of 2025 is fueled by an improving macroeconomic backdrop and significant regulatory progress. A Coinbase Research report highlights that stronger U.S. growth, indicated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker jumping to 3.8% QoQ, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are strengthening investor sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC). The report suggests BTC is poised to benefit from these tailwinds, even as altcoins may lag without specific catalysts. On the regulatory front, the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and the CLARITY Act to define SEC and CFTC oversight are advancing, with rulings on over 80 crypto ETF applications potentially arriving by October. Separately, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing a tax amendment to waive taxes on crypto transactions under $300 and, crucially for traders and investors, to tax staking and mining rewards only when the assets are sold, not upon acquisition. This could significantly simplify tax obligations and encourage wider crypto adoption.

According to @burrytracker, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned for a potential surge to a new all-time high, with some analysts now forecasting a price of $200,000 by the end of the year. This bullish outlook is supported by several factors, including softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, as cited by Matt Mena of 21Shares. The analysis also points to a record-high U.S. M2 money supply ($21.9 trillion) and warnings from figures like Ray Dalio about rising national debt, pushing investors toward assets like BTC. With U.S. equity markets already at record highs and July historically being a strong month for Bitcoin, the confluence of these macro tailwinds suggests significant upward potential for the cryptocurrency.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the stronger-than-expected U.S. June jobs report has significantly altered market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, impacting Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the forecast of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. In response to this robust economic data, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000 after recently topping $110,000 for the first time in a month. The strong labor market data reinforces the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy, with traders on CME FedWatch increasing the odds of rates holding steady in July from 75% to 95% immediately following the report. Consequently, the probability of a September rate cut declined from 95% to 78%. Analysts at HTX Research had previously noted that a strong jobs report could trigger a technical correction for BTC if it breaks below the $104,000 support level.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's updated projections indicate fewer rate cuts in the coming years than previously anticipated, with rates now expected to be 3.6% in 2026. This hawkish revision is supported by a surprisingly strong June jobs report, which saw the creation of 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, far exceeding the forecast of 110,000. Following the robust employment data, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000. The strong labor market signals that the Fed can remain patient before easing monetary policy, which led traders to significantly lower their odds for a July rate cut from 25% to just 5%, according to CME FedWatch data.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned for significant gains, with a year-end price target of $200,000 now considered 'firmly in play' by some analysts following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, stated that the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could be a major bullish catalyst, potentially accelerating BTC's move to $120,000 if it breaks the $105,000-$110,000 range. The analysis is supported by several macroeconomic factors, including record highs in U.S. equity markets, a surging U.S. M2 money supply, and growing concerns over government debt, as highlighted by Ray Dalio. These conditions, combined with traders now pricing in approximately two Fed rate cuts this year, are expected to drive capital into risk assets like Bitcoin, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. At the time of the report, BTC was trading around $107,755.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a period of low volatility despite trading near its all-time high, currently around $109,000. NYDIG Research highlights that this decline in both realized and implied volatility makes options trading relatively inexpensive for traders. This environment presents a cost-effective opportunity to use calls for upside exposure and puts for downside protection, especially for positioning ahead of potential market-moving catalysts in July. Furthermore, strong macroeconomic tailwinds are supporting BTC's price. The U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record $21.9 trillion, and concerns over rising government debt, as noted by Ray Dalio, are pushing investors towards alternative assets. Historically, July has been a positive month for Bitcoin, averaging gains of around 7%, which could fuel a push towards new record highs.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to potentially reach a new all-time high, driven by strong macroeconomic tailwinds. These factors include U.S. equity indexes hitting record highs, which often leads to capital flowing into alternative assets like BTC, and a record U.S. M2 money supply of $21.9 trillion, increasing liquidity in the financial system. The analysis also cites hedge fund founder Ray Dalio's concerns over rising U.S. government debt, which may push investors towards assets that preserve purchasing power. Historically, July has also been a seasonally strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains around 7%. Despite these bullish signals, Gerry O’Shea of Hashdex notes that the majority of financial advisors are not yet recommending crypto to clients. Their primary concerns are volatility, energy consumption, and perceived links to criminality. However, O'Shea predicts this hesitation will not last, highlighting that key themes for 2025 will be Bitcoin and stablecoins, which could increase interest in underlying platforms like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

According to @FarsideUK, Bitcoin's (BTC) bull momentum is reinforced by significant institutional adoption signals, such as a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider cryptocurrency holdings for mortgages. The analysis highlights that this is complemented by a favorable macro environment, including a Federal Reserve plan to overhaul bank capital rules and a weakening U.S. dollar. Further supporting the trend, spot BTC ETFs recorded 12 straight days of net inflows, totaling $548 million on one day, while corporations like Metaplanet continue to accumulate BTC. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich notes the total crypto market cap is approaching a critical volatility threshold of $3.40–$3.55 trillion. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates long-term holders are remaining steadfast, though QCP Capital has observed a rise in leverage, which could lead to increased volatility.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly surpassing the 110,000 forecast and pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This robust data reinforces the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy, diminishing trader expectations for a near-term rate cut. In response to the news, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) saw a modest dip to just under $109,000 after briefly topping $110,000. Concurrently, the crypto market is facing severe security challenges, with a TRM Labs report indicating a record $2.1 billion was stolen in the first half of 2025. The report attributes $1.6 billion of these losses to North Korean-linked hacking groups, highlighting a shift towards more lucrative infrastructure-level breaches over traditional DeFi exploits.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. June jobs report significantly exceeded expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and impacting the cryptocurrency market. The economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, surpassing the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This strong economic data reinforces the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy. Consequently, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July surged from 75% to 95% following the report, according to CME FedWatch data. In the immediate aftermath, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000, after briefly topping $110,000 for the first time in a month.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has significant implications for cryptocurrency traders. The economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, beating the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This robust data caused the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to dip modestly to just under $109,000 shortly after the release, following a recent climb above $110,000. The strong employment figures reinforce the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy, leading traders to drastically alter rate cut expectations. Citing CME FedWatch data, the report notes that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July jumped from 75% to 95%, while the odds of a rate cut by September fell from 95% to 78%. This shift suggests a less favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin in the short term, as higher interest rates can reduce liquidity.

According to @rovercrc, Ether (ETH) has experienced a significant price surge, climbing to an intraday high of $2,873.46, driven by positive macroeconomic developments and strong institutional interest. The rally was fueled by a tentative U.S.–China trade framework and a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report, which boosted risk appetite. Reinforcing this bullish sentiment, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts that flows into spot Ethereum ETFs will accelerate significantly in the second half of the year, citing the powerful narrative of stablecoins and tokenized stocks moving onto the Ethereum network. This institutional adoption is further evidenced by Robinhood building on Arbitrum, record levels of staked ETH reaching 34.65 million tokens (28.7% of supply), and futures open interest surpassing $21.7 billion. From a trading perspective, ETH has established a new support band at $2,750–$2,760, with key upside resistance levels at $2,900 and the psychological $3,000 mark.

According to @CryptoMichNL, while Bitcoin (BTC) and gold remain under pressure due to U.S. macroeconomic data pointing towards potential stagflation, the Bitcoin-to-Gold (BTC/XAU) price ratio is showing significant strength. The analysis highlights that recent data, including a higher-than-expected core PCE price index, has weighed on the assets even as the Nasdaq hits new records (source: @CryptoMichNL). However, the BTC/XAU ratio surged over 10% last week, confirming a breakout from a bullish flag pattern. This technical formation signals a likely continuation of the uptrend, with analysis suggesting the ratio could rally towards 42.00, potentially surpassing its previous all-time high and indicating strong outperformance for Bitcoin relative to gold (source: @CryptoMichNL).