According to Evan (@StockMKTNewz), JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that he expects continued market volatility and would not rule out the possibility of a US recession (source: Twitter, May 15, 2025). For crypto traders, heightened volatility in traditional markets often translates into increased trading volumes and price swings across major digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Dimon's caution signals a likely risk-off sentiment in legacy finance, which could drive more capital into or out of crypto markets depending on investor risk appetite, making it essential for crypto market participants to closely watch macroeconomic developments.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, if the US economy is nearing a business cycle bottom due to recession, Bitcoin has shown an average gain of +1,746% from ISM index bottoms to peaks in past cycles (source: Twitter/@Andre_Dragosch, May 7, 2025). This historical data highlights a highly favorable risk/return profile for crypto traders considering new entries as the macroeconomic cycle turns. The correlation between ISM cycle lows and Bitcoin's explosive upward moves provides a compelling trading signal for those seeking to capitalize on the next business cycle upturn.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, commodities have been steadily pricing in a US recession over the past two months, reflecting ongoing market concerns about economic slowdown and its direct influence on interest rate expectations. The analysis suggests that a recession scenario is increasingly seen by traders as the key path to achieving sustainably lower rates, which could have significant implications for commodities futures, macro-driven trading strategies, and crypto assets sensitive to rate movements (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, commodities markets have been pricing in a potential US recession over the past two months, which is reflected in sustained downward price trends. This ongoing movement suggests traders are anticipating that a recession could be the primary driver for sustainably lower interest rates, which may impact asset allocation and trading strategies across commodities, equities, and crypto markets. The analysis highlights the importance for traders to monitor macroeconomic signals and commodity price action when planning positions, as persistent weakness in commodities often precedes shifts in monetary policy and risk appetite (source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).

According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience during the likely US recession, experiencing only a -30% max drawdown compared to a -75% retracement during the Covid recession in 2020. This indicates Bitcoin's maturation as a financial asset, offering potential trading opportunities for investors seeking stability in the crypto market.

According to Crypto Rover, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett firmly stated that he is 100% not expecting a recession in the U.S., suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. This statement could potentially strengthen investor confidence in cryptocurrency markets, notably Bitcoin, as the absence of a recession signals economic stability, which is often positive for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of a recession occurring in the United States this year has increased to 59%, as reported by @Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies as investors may seek to hedge against potential economic downturns. Traders might consider reallocating assets towards more defensive sectors or exploring options in safe-haven assets in anticipation of increased market volatility.

According to André Dragosch, a webinar featuring Bradley Duke and Matt Hougan will address whether the US economy is heading towards a recession and its potential effects on Bitcoin and other cryptoassets. This discussion is relevant for traders looking to understand macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency markets.

According to André Dragosch, Chinese monetary and credit policy tends to ease counter-cyclically to US business cycles. In times of US recession, the US Dollar Index (DXY) tends to decrease, increasing the probability of Chinese reflation. This scenario is mostly bullish for Bitcoin due to anticipated Dollar depreciation and global money supply expansion (source: André Dragosch, Twitter).

According to Cas Abbé, Trump's tariff announcement led to significant market turmoil, causing S&P 500 futures to lose $2 trillion within 15 minutes. Additionally, $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over 4 hours. Bitcoin also experienced a sharp decline, dropping from $88,500 to $83,000 in just an hour. This market reaction highlights increased volatility and trading risks, with US recession odds rising to 50%.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%, as reported by Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds is crucial for traders as it may influence market sentiment and impact investment strategies. The elevated risk could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, prompting traders to reassess their portfolios for potential downturn protection.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies, prompting traders to consider risk management and hedging strategies in their portfolios.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is currently navigating between macro uncertainty and a decline in US regulatory uncertainty. He suggests that once the macro uncertainty, particularly regarding a US recession, is fully anticipated or reflected, Bitcoin could experience a significant rally.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling heightened market concerns over economic downturns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling growing market concerns over a potential economic downturn.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have surged to 43% due to the escalating trade war. This represents the highest recession probability since November 17th, as reported by @Kalshi. Traders should consider the potential impacts on market volatility and economic growth forecasts.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, US recession fears have resurfaced, which could significantly impact Bitcoin trading as investors might seek safe-haven assets. The correlation between macroeconomic trends and cryptocurrency markets suggests traders should monitor economic indicators closely. (Source: André Dragosch, Twitter)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US professional and business services sector has lost 248,000 jobs since May 2023, marking a significant contraction for 17 consecutive months. This is the longest streak since 2008. The downturn in this sector may influence investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets, as reduced employment can lead to decreased disposable income and potentially less investment in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. This trend should be closely monitored by traders as it could impact market liquidity and volatility.