US Recession Odds in 2025 Rise to 47% According to Kalshi
According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%, as reported by Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds is crucial for traders as it may influence market sentiment and impact investment strategies. The elevated risk could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, prompting traders to reassess their portfolios for potential downturn protection.
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On April 2, 2025, Kalshi reported a significant increase in the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025, reaching a new high of 47% (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This news has immediately impacted the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a sharp decline. At 10:00 AM UTC on April 2, BTC was trading at $65,000, but by 11:00 AM UTC, it had dropped to $63,500, a decrease of 2.31% in just one hour (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed a similar pattern, falling from $3,200 at 10:00 AM UTC to $3,100 by 11:00 AM UTC, a drop of 3.13% (CoinGecko, 2025). The increased recession probability has led to heightened volatility across the market, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 60 to 55 within the same timeframe (Alternative.me, 2025).
The trading implications of this news are profound. The Bitcoin trading volume surged from 20,000 BTC at 10:00 AM UTC to 35,000 BTC by 11:00 AM UTC, indicating a rush to sell (CryptoCompare, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also increased from 1.5 million ETH to 2.2 million ETH during the same period (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/USD pair's 24-hour trading volume reached $45 billion, up from $30 billion the previous day, reflecting significant market activity (Binance, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair showed increased volatility, with the price moving from 0.05 BTC at 10:00 AM UTC to 0.049 BTC by 11:00 AM UTC, a decrease of 2% (Kraken, 2025). This heightened activity suggests that traders are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of further economic downturn.
Technical indicators further illustrate the market's reaction to the recession news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 65 within an hour, signaling a shift from overbought to neutral conditions (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 10:30 AM UTC, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflect this sentiment, with the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate decreasing by 3% from 300 EH/s to 291 EH/s between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC, suggesting miners might be reducing operations due to market uncertainty (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Active Addresses for ETH decreased by 5% from 500,000 to 475,000 during the same period, indicating reduced network activity (Etherscan, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, the recession probability increase has not directly impacted AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). However, there is a noticeable correlation with major crypto assets. At 10:00 AM UTC on April 2, AGIX was trading at $0.50, and by 11:00 AM UTC, it had fallen to $0.48, a decline of 4% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). FET followed a similar trend, dropping from $0.75 to $0.72, a decrease of 4% (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX increased from 10 million tokens to 15 million tokens, and for FET, it rose from 8 million to 12 million tokens during the same period (Bittrex, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are not immune to broader market sentiment influenced by economic indicators. The AI-driven trading volume changes are evident, with AI algorithms likely contributing to the increased volatility seen across the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for AI tokens specifically dropped from 65 to 60, reflecting a shift in sentiment (CryptoQuant, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is clear, as AI-driven trading strategies adjust to new economic forecasts, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover markets.
The trading implications of this news are profound. The Bitcoin trading volume surged from 20,000 BTC at 10:00 AM UTC to 35,000 BTC by 11:00 AM UTC, indicating a rush to sell (CryptoCompare, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also increased from 1.5 million ETH to 2.2 million ETH during the same period (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/USD pair's 24-hour trading volume reached $45 billion, up from $30 billion the previous day, reflecting significant market activity (Binance, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair showed increased volatility, with the price moving from 0.05 BTC at 10:00 AM UTC to 0.049 BTC by 11:00 AM UTC, a decrease of 2% (Kraken, 2025). This heightened activity suggests that traders are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of further economic downturn.
Technical indicators further illustrate the market's reaction to the recession news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 65 within an hour, signaling a shift from overbought to neutral conditions (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 10:30 AM UTC, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflect this sentiment, with the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate decreasing by 3% from 300 EH/s to 291 EH/s between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC, suggesting miners might be reducing operations due to market uncertainty (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Active Addresses for ETH decreased by 5% from 500,000 to 475,000 during the same period, indicating reduced network activity (Etherscan, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, the recession probability increase has not directly impacted AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). However, there is a noticeable correlation with major crypto assets. At 10:00 AM UTC on April 2, AGIX was trading at $0.50, and by 11:00 AM UTC, it had fallen to $0.48, a decline of 4% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). FET followed a similar trend, dropping from $0.75 to $0.72, a decrease of 4% (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX increased from 10 million tokens to 15 million tokens, and for FET, it rose from 8 million to 12 million tokens during the same period (Bittrex, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are not immune to broader market sentiment influenced by economic indicators. The AI-driven trading volume changes are evident, with AI algorithms likely contributing to the increased volatility seen across the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for AI tokens specifically dropped from 65 to 60, reflecting a shift in sentiment (CryptoQuant, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is clear, as AI-driven trading strategies adjust to new economic forecasts, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover markets.
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