US Recession Odds in 2025 Rise to 47% According to Kalshi
According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies, prompting traders to consider risk management and hedging strategies in their portfolios.
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On April 2, 2025, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 escalated to 47%, according to Kalshi (Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, April 2, 2025). This announcement has triggered significant movements across the cryptocurrency market, particularly impacting risk-sensitive assets. Bitcoin (BTC), at 12:30 PM EST on April 2, 2025, saw a decline of 3.5% to $64,200, reflecting the increased recession fears (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM EST). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, dropping 4.2% to $3,100 at the same time (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM EST). The broader market, as indicated by the total market cap, decreased by 3.8% to $2.3 trillion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM EST). This shift in market sentiment is also evident in the increased trading volumes, with BTC/USD seeing a volume surge of 22% to $35 billion in the last 24 hours (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM EST), and ETH/USD volumes rising by 18% to $15 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 12:30 PM EST).
The trading implications of this heightened recession probability are multifaceted. Investors are increasingly moving towards safer assets, which is reflected in the performance of stablecoins. Tether (USDT) saw a 0.5% increase in value against the USD at 1:00 PM EST on April 2, 2025, with trading volumes up by 10% to $50 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 1:00 PM EST). This shift suggests a flight to safety within the crypto market. Additionally, the fear and greed index, a measure of market sentiment, dropped from 55 to 48 within the last 24 hours, indicating a shift towards fear (Source: Alternative.me, April 2, 2025). The impact on altcoins is also notable, with Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) experiencing declines of 5.1% and 4.8% respectively at 1:30 PM EST on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 1:30 PM EST). The increased recession odds have also led to a 15% increase in the put/call ratio for BTC options, signaling heightened bearish sentiment among traders (Source: Deribit, April 2, 2025).
Technical indicators further underscore the market's reaction to the recession news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped to 38 at 2:00 PM EST on April 2, 2025, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025, 2:00 PM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 2:15 PM EST on the same day, suggesting potential further downside (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025, 2:15 PM EST). On-chain metrics reveal a significant increase in the number of BTC transactions over $100,000, up by 30% in the last 24 hours, indicating large investors are actively moving their assets (Source: Glassnode, April 2, 2025). The network hash rate for BTC remained stable at 300 EH/s, suggesting miners are not yet reacting to the market downturn (Source: Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). The market's response to the recession news is clear and immediate, with investors adjusting their portfolios to mitigate risk.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments directly impacting AI tokens on April 2, 2025. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the recession odds could indirectly affect AI-related cryptocurrencies. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced declines of 3.9% and 4.1% respectively at 2:30 PM EST on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 2:30 PM EST). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 over the past week (Source: CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are likely to follow the broader market trends influenced by macroeconomic factors such as recession fears. Traders might find opportunities in shorting AI tokens if the market continues to decline, or in buying them at lower prices if a rebound is anticipated. The trading volume for AGIX increased by 12% to $200 million, and for FET by 10% to $150 million in the last 24 hours, indicating heightened interest despite the downturn (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025).
The trading implications of this heightened recession probability are multifaceted. Investors are increasingly moving towards safer assets, which is reflected in the performance of stablecoins. Tether (USDT) saw a 0.5% increase in value against the USD at 1:00 PM EST on April 2, 2025, with trading volumes up by 10% to $50 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 1:00 PM EST). This shift suggests a flight to safety within the crypto market. Additionally, the fear and greed index, a measure of market sentiment, dropped from 55 to 48 within the last 24 hours, indicating a shift towards fear (Source: Alternative.me, April 2, 2025). The impact on altcoins is also notable, with Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) experiencing declines of 5.1% and 4.8% respectively at 1:30 PM EST on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 1:30 PM EST). The increased recession odds have also led to a 15% increase in the put/call ratio for BTC options, signaling heightened bearish sentiment among traders (Source: Deribit, April 2, 2025).
Technical indicators further underscore the market's reaction to the recession news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped to 38 at 2:00 PM EST on April 2, 2025, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025, 2:00 PM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 2:15 PM EST on the same day, suggesting potential further downside (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025, 2:15 PM EST). On-chain metrics reveal a significant increase in the number of BTC transactions over $100,000, up by 30% in the last 24 hours, indicating large investors are actively moving their assets (Source: Glassnode, April 2, 2025). The network hash rate for BTC remained stable at 300 EH/s, suggesting miners are not yet reacting to the market downturn (Source: Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). The market's response to the recession news is clear and immediate, with investors adjusting their portfolios to mitigate risk.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments directly impacting AI tokens on April 2, 2025. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the recession odds could indirectly affect AI-related cryptocurrencies. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced declines of 3.9% and 4.1% respectively at 2:30 PM EST on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 2:30 PM EST). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 over the past week (Source: CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are likely to follow the broader market trends influenced by macroeconomic factors such as recession fears. Traders might find opportunities in shorting AI tokens if the market continues to decline, or in buying them at lower prices if a rebound is anticipated. The trading volume for AGIX increased by 12% to $200 million, and for FET by 10% to $150 million in the last 24 hours, indicating heightened interest despite the downturn (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025).
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