According to @doctortraderr, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is in a standoff, trading above $105,500 while caught between patient long-term holders and an increase in leveraged trading. On-chain data from Glassnode shows a dominant 'HODLing' behavior, with long-term holder supply surging to 14.7 million BTC and the Liveliness metric declining, indicating older coins remain dormant. Concurrently, institutional demand remains strong, with QCP reporting $2.2 billion in net inflows to spot BTC ETFs last week. However, QCP also notes that rising leveraged long positions are creating a fragile equilibrium. Technical analysis points to conflicting signals: while the Dollar Index (DXY) suffering its worst crash since 1991 is a long-term bullish tailwind for BTC, the 14-day stochastic indicator suggests an imminent risk of a price drop below $100,000 as it crosses down from the overbought region.

According to @Pentosh1, softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data has significantly strengthened Bitcoin's (BTC) bull case, with analysts now seeing a potential surge to $200,000 by the end of the year. Matt Mena, a research strategist at 21Shares, stated that the recent CPI report could be the catalyst that accelerates BTC's momentum, bringing a $200K target "firmly in play." The cooling inflation has increased trader expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with swaps pricing in approximately two 25-basis-point cuts this year, as cited in the report. Further bolstering this outlook, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest point since February 2022, a development described by Bitwise's Andre Dragosch as "very bullish" for Bitcoin. Additionally, the analysis highlights a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 between BTC and Nvidia (NVDA) stock, which recently achieved a new record high, suggesting a shared risk-on sentiment. Recessionary signals, such as a steepening yield curve and declining consumer confidence, are also viewed as potential drivers for capital inflow into Bitcoin.

According to KobeissiLetter, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past $108,000, driven by key institutional and macroeconomic factors. The rally is supported by JPMorgan's filing for a crypto-related trademark and news that asset manager Purpose is set to launch a spot XRP exchange-traded fund in Canada. On the macro front, a falling US Dollar Index (DXY), which hit its lowest level since March 2022, is seen as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, a view shared by Bitwise's Andre Dragosch. Furthermore, a strong positive correlation of 0.80 has been observed between BTC and AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), which just hit a record high, signaling continued risk-on appetite. Bitfinex analysts suggest recent market action resembles a "capitulation-style setup" that could mark a local bottom, contingent on BTC holding the $102,000-$103,000 support level. While altcoins like XRP and Chainlink (LINK) have posted gains, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard believes Bitcoin remains the primary market driver and a sustained altcoin season is not yet confirmed. Traders are now closely watching the Federal Reserve, as Chair Powell's upcoming remarks are expected to drive market volatility.

According to Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, the dollar index (DXY) fell to 97.27, the lowest since February 2022, based on TradingView data, which could boost bitcoin's price due to easing financial conditions. Concurrently, Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit a record high with a 90-day correlation coefficient of 0.80 to BTC, indicating strong risk-on sentiment. Kurt S. Altrichter noted that yield curve steepening and consumer confidence dropping to 69, below the recession threshold per Conference Board data, signal recession risks. Traders are pricing in Fed rate cuts, with around 60 basis points of easing expected this year according to Bloomberg and CME FedWatch tool, potentially supporting BTC gains.

According to market analysts, Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded nearly 10% from weekend lows, supported by the dollar index dropping to 97.27, the lowest level since February 2022, as per TradingView data. This dollar weakness eases financial conditions and boosts risk assets like BTC. Nvidia (NVDA) shares surged to a record high with a strong 90-day correlation to BTC at 0.80, signaling positive market sentiment. Yield curve steepening and falling consumer confidence to 69, below the recession threshold of 80 according to the Conference Board, suggest impending economic risks. Traders are pricing in Fed rate cuts, with swaps indicating easing, which could further support BTC gains.

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), a decline in the US Dollar combined with a rise in commodity prices typically signals heightened inflation risk. For traders, this scenario historically results in increased demand for inflation hedges like Bitcoin, as fiat currencies lose purchasing power (source: Twitter, May 8, 2025). Monitoring the Dollar Index (DXY) and major commodity price trends is critical for crypto investors seeking to anticipate inflows into Bitcoin and other digital assets during inflationary cycles.