Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Strengthens Amid Dollar Weakness and Tech Rally

Bitcoin has surged nearly 10% from its weekend lows, with BTC trading at $107,188.46 against USDT as of the latest data, reflecting a 0.14% gain over the past 24 hours. This rebound is bolstered by a weakening U.S. dollar index, which plummeted to 97.27 early Thursday, its lowest level since February 2022, according to TradingView data. The dollar's decline, driven by growing expectations of a July Federal Reserve rate cut and disappointing housing and consumer confidence reports, eases global financial conditions and fuels risk appetite in markets. Andre Dragosch, director and head of research - Europe at Bitwise, emphasized on X that the DXY's drop to multi-year lows has bullish implications for Bitcoin, as it signals potential money supply growth and increased capital flows into risk assets.

Nvidia's Record High and Strong Correlation with Bitcoin

Simultaneously, Nvidia shares soared 4.33% on Wednesday to a record high of $154.30, underscoring its role as a key indicator for technology and AI-driven markets. Both NVDA and Bitcoin have demonstrated a robust positive correlation since their late 2022 lows, with the 90-day correlation coefficient at 0.80 as of writing, indicating synchronized upward trends. This rally was preceded by a bullish golden cross in Nasdaq futures, reinforcing a broader risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin's price action shows resilience, with BTCUSDT hitting a 24-hour high of $108,209.12 and low of $106,803.73, suggesting key resistance near $108,200 and support around $106,800. Trading volume for BTCUSDT stands at 7.46676 BTC, pointing to steady accumulation, while Ethereum, trading at $2,449.57 with a 0.96% gain, mirrors this strength with its own high of $2,515.00.

Recession Signals from Bonds and Consumer Data

Bond markets are flashing recession warnings, as the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note tumbled to 3.76% early Thursday, the lowest since May 2, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.27%, widening the yield curve spread in a phenomenon known as bull-steepening. Historically, this pattern has preceded economic downturns, as noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter on X, who warned that a further drop in the two-year yield could signal Fed policy missteps. Complementing this, consumer confidence data from the Conference Board revealed a drop to 93 in June, with the expectations index sinking to 69—well below the 80 threshold that typically indicates an impending recession. These developments heighten market anxiety and amplify the case for Fed intervention.

Trading Opportunities Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Traders are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts, with interest rate swaps now factoring in about four basis points of easing for the July meeting, up from near zero a week ago, and a total of 60 basis points by year-end, according to Bloomberg. This shift, coupled with falling oil prices, supports Bitcoin's bull case, as lower rates typically weaken the dollar and boost alternative assets. For crypto traders, Bitcoin's current levels offer clear entry points: a break above $108,200 resistance could target $110,000, with stop-losses near $106,800 support. Ethereum, at $2,449.57, shows similar potential, with resistance at $2,515 and support at $2,391.53. Altcoins like Solana's SOLETH pair, up 2.595% to $0.068, and Avalanche's AVAXBTC, surging 6.733%, present additional opportunities in a risk-on environment. Monitoring volume spikes, such as ADAETH's 1.838% rise to $0.00030470, can help identify momentum plays, but traders should remain cautious of recession risks that could trigger volatility.