Sui (SUI) Gains Momentum with Record TVL but Faces Short-Term Bearish Signals

Joerg Hiller Jul 18, 2025 04:47

Sui (SUI) surged 35.4% this month, hitting record TVL of $2.219 billion. Despite bullish momentum, technical indicators highlight short-term bearish risks.

1. Executive Summary

Sui (SUI), a leading Layer 1 blockchain, has captured the spotlight with a remarkable 35.4% price surge in July, setting an all-time high Total Value Locked (TVL) of $2.219 billion. However, recent technical indicators suggest that short-term bearish signals could temper this momentum. This article explores Sui’s recent market developments, technical trends, trading signals, and price outlook.

2. Recent Market Developments

• 📅 July 14, 2025: Sui recorded a 44% monthly surge, positioning itself as the best-performing Layer 1 asset in July. The blockchain’s TVL reached $2.219 billion, driven by strong liquidity inflows. This growth reflects heightened investor confidence and increasing adoption of Sui-based DeFi platforms.
  Impact: Positive – Bullish momentum fueled by strong fundamentals.

• 📅 July 16, 2025: SUI rose to $4.1081 before retracing to $3.9889, accompanied by a bearish engulfing candlestick and overbought RSI conditions. The 24-hour trading volume stood at 52.2 million SUI, equivalent to $210 million in turnover.
  Impact: Negative – Bearish technical signals raise concerns about short-term volatility.

3. Technical Analysis

Sui’s current price action and technical indicators highlight both upside potential and near-term risks:

• Price Overview:

  • Current Price: $4.15
  • 24h Change: +5.56%
  • 24h High/Low: $4.15 / $3.91
  • Volume: $321,932,277

• Moving Averages:

  • SMA_7: $3.85
  • SMA_20: $3.28
  • SMA_50: $3.12
  • SMA_200: $3.26
  • EMA_12: $3.65
  • EMA_26: $3.37
    Trend: Strong bullish momentum as price trades above key moving averages, signaling continued upward pressure.

• Momentum Indicators:

  • RSI (14): 72.18 (Overbought)
  • MACD: 0.2873 (Bullish, but narrowing histogram suggests weakening momentum)
  • Stochastic %K: 99.95 (Overbought)
  • Stochastic %D: 93.68
    Trend: Overbought signals indicate potential for short-term correction.

• Bollinger Bands:

  • Upper Band: $4.25
  • Middle Band: $3.28
  • Lower Band: $2.31
  • %B: 0.9481
    Trend: Price approaching the upper band, indicating overextension.

• Key Levels:

  • Resistance 2: $4.15
  • Resistance 1: $4.15
  • Pivot: $4.07
  • Support 1: $2.65
  • Support 2: $2.29

4. Trading Strategy and Signals

Short-Term Strategy:
Traders should adopt a cautious approach due to overbought conditions indicated by RSI and Stochastic oscillators. The bearish engulfing pattern near $4.10 suggests a potential pullback.

• Entry Point: $3.85 (near SMA_7 support).
• Stop Loss: $3.65 (below EMA_12).
• Take Profit: $4.25 (upper Bollinger Band).

Long-Term Strategy:
Sui’s strong fundamentals, including record TVL and sustained adoption, make it an attractive long-term investment. Look for dips near $3.28 (SMA_20) for accumulation.

5. Price Predictions and Outlook

• Short-Term: Expect a correction toward $3.85–$4.00, given overbought technicals and potential profit-taking.
• Medium-Term: Bullish momentum could resume if Sui consolidates above $4.00, targeting $4.50–$5.00.
• Long-Term: With rising TVL and adoption, Sui could challenge its 52-week high of $5.29 by year-end, provided market conditions remain favorable.

6. Risk Analysis

While Sui’s fundamentals remain robust, several risks could impact price performance:
- Overbought Conditions: High RSI and Stochastic values increase the likelihood of short-term corrections.
- Macro Factors: Broader crypto market volatility or adverse regulatory developments could dampen sentiment.
- Key Support Levels: A breach below $3.65 could trigger a deeper pullback toward $3.28 or lower.

7. Conclusion

Sui (SUI) has emerged as a standout performer in July, driven by strong market momentum and record-breaking TVL. While short-term technical indicators warn of potential corrections, Sui’s long-term outlook remains optimistic. Traders should monitor key support levels and overbought conditions, while long-term investors may consider accumulating on dips.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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