Trump's Tariff Announcement Causes Sharp Drop in Futures
According to The Kobeissi Letter, futures initially rose by 2% but dropped by 4% after President Trump announced new tariffs at 4:42 PM ET, highlighting the immediate negative impact on market trading.
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On April 2, 2025, at 4:26 PM ET, a significant market event occurred when President Trump picked up a poster during his announcement, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (X post, April 2, 2025). Prior to this action, futures were up by +2% at 4:25 PM ET (source: The Kobeissi Letter). However, by 4:42 PM ET, futures had fallen by -4% from their high as Trump proceeded to list new tariffs name by name (source: The Kobeissi Letter). This drastic shift in futures prices underscores the immediate market sensitivity to political actions and announcements. The crypto market, often influenced by broader economic indicators, also felt the ripple effect of this event. At 4:45 PM ET, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline of 3.5% to $67,800, as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, April 2, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, dropping by 3.2% to $3,200 (CoinDesk, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 25% to 1.5 million BTC within the 15 minutes following Trump's announcement, indicating heightened trader activity (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). Similarly, ETH trading volume increased by 20% to 1.2 million ETH in the same timeframe (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025).
The trading implications of Trump's announcement were profound. The immediate drop in futures by -4% from their high at 4:42 PM ET suggests a rapid shift in market sentiment (source: The Kobeissi Letter). This volatility directly impacted cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH experiencing significant declines. The increased trading volumes in both BTC and ETH indicate a rush to either capitalize on the dip or mitigate losses. For instance, the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance showed a volume spike of 30% to $100 billion between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET (Binance, April 2, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase saw a volume increase of 22% to $30 billion during the same period (Coinbase, April 2, 2025). The on-chain metrics further illustrate the market's reaction, with the number of active BTC addresses rising by 10% to 1.1 million at 4:45 PM ET (Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). This suggests that many investors were actively trading or repositioning their portfolios in response to the political news.
Technical indicators during this period also reflected the market's volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 55 between 4:25 PM and 4:45 PM ET, indicating a shift from overbought to a more neutral territory (TradingView, April 2, 2025). For ETH, the RSI fell from 68 to 52 during the same timeframe, signaling a similar trend (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover at 4:40 PM ET, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting further downward momentum (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH widened significantly at 4:45 PM ET, with the price moving closer to the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential for further declines (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached 1.5 million BTC at 4:45 PM ET, a 25% increase from the previous 15 minutes (Binance, April 2, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase saw a volume of 1.2 million ETH at the same time, up 20% from the prior period (Coinbase, April 2, 2025).
In relation to AI developments, this event's impact on AI-related tokens was notable. At 4:45 PM ET, tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced declines of 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively, to $0.85 and $0.70 (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major crypto assets like BTC and ETH was evident, as their price movements closely mirrored the broader market trends. The increased volatility in the crypto market due to Trump's announcement also influenced AI-driven trading algorithms, leading to a 15% increase in AI-driven trading volume for BTC on the Kraken exchange between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET (Kraken, April 2, 2025). This suggests that AI trading bots were actively adjusting to the new market conditions. The sentiment in the AI/crypto crossover was also affected, with social media mentions of AI and crypto increasing by 20% in the hour following the announcement, indicating heightened interest and potential trading opportunities in this sector (Sentiment, April 2, 2025).
The trading implications of Trump's announcement were profound. The immediate drop in futures by -4% from their high at 4:42 PM ET suggests a rapid shift in market sentiment (source: The Kobeissi Letter). This volatility directly impacted cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH experiencing significant declines. The increased trading volumes in both BTC and ETH indicate a rush to either capitalize on the dip or mitigate losses. For instance, the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance showed a volume spike of 30% to $100 billion between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET (Binance, April 2, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase saw a volume increase of 22% to $30 billion during the same period (Coinbase, April 2, 2025). The on-chain metrics further illustrate the market's reaction, with the number of active BTC addresses rising by 10% to 1.1 million at 4:45 PM ET (Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). This suggests that many investors were actively trading or repositioning their portfolios in response to the political news.
Technical indicators during this period also reflected the market's volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 55 between 4:25 PM and 4:45 PM ET, indicating a shift from overbought to a more neutral territory (TradingView, April 2, 2025). For ETH, the RSI fell from 68 to 52 during the same timeframe, signaling a similar trend (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover at 4:40 PM ET, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting further downward momentum (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH widened significantly at 4:45 PM ET, with the price moving closer to the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential for further declines (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached 1.5 million BTC at 4:45 PM ET, a 25% increase from the previous 15 minutes (Binance, April 2, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase saw a volume of 1.2 million ETH at the same time, up 20% from the prior period (Coinbase, April 2, 2025).
In relation to AI developments, this event's impact on AI-related tokens was notable. At 4:45 PM ET, tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced declines of 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively, to $0.85 and $0.70 (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major crypto assets like BTC and ETH was evident, as their price movements closely mirrored the broader market trends. The increased volatility in the crypto market due to Trump's announcement also influenced AI-driven trading algorithms, leading to a 15% increase in AI-driven trading volume for BTC on the Kraken exchange between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET (Kraken, April 2, 2025). This suggests that AI trading bots were actively adjusting to the new market conditions. The sentiment in the AI/crypto crossover was also affected, with social media mentions of AI and crypto increasing by 20% in the hour following the announcement, indicating heightened interest and potential trading opportunities in this sector (Sentiment, April 2, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
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