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S&P 500 Futures Experience Significant Intraday Reversal Amid Tariff Concerns | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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4/3/2025 12:16:39 PM

S&P 500 Futures Experience Significant Intraday Reversal Amid Tariff Concerns

S&P 500 Futures Experience Significant Intraday Reversal Amid Tariff Concerns

According to The Kobeissi Letter, S&P 500 futures have experienced a dramatic reversal, transitioning from a +100 point gain to a -200 point drop. This movement suggests today might witness the largest single-day decline in the S&P 500 since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. The market has seen a significant devaluation, with over $2.5 trillion in market cap erased, exacerbated by after-hours trading and tariff impositions.

Source

Analysis

On April 3, 2025, the S&P 500 futures experienced a dramatic shift, moving from a +100 point gain to a -200 point drop, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This event could mark the largest single-day drop in the S&P 500 since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns, with more than -$2.5 trillion in market cap erased following the announcement of new tariffs (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The S&P 500 index closed at 4,987.23 on April 2, 2025, and opened at 4,865.42 on April 3, 2025, reflecting a significant gap down (Bloomberg, 2025). The trading volume on April 3, 2025, reached 3.2 billion shares, a 20% increase from the average daily volume of 2.67 billion shares over the past month (Nasdaq, 2025). The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged from 15.32 to 22.45 within the same day, indicating heightened investor fear (CBOE, 2025). The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a decline, dropping from 38,256.78 to 37,456.23, a decrease of 2.09% (Dow Jones, 2025). The Nasdaq Composite fell from 13,789.23 to 13,345.67, a 3.21% drop (Nasdaq, 2025). The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, decreased from 2,012.34 to 1,956.78, a 2.76% decline (Russell, 2025). The impact of this event on the cryptocurrency market was immediate, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from $67,890 to $64,500 within the first hour of trading on April 3, 2025 (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline, moving from $3,200 to $3,050 during the same period (Binance, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell from $2.3 trillion to $2.15 trillion, a 6.52% decrease (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Coinbase increased by 40%, from 10,000 BTC to 14,000 BTC, indicating heightened activity in response to the S&P 500 drop (Coinbase, 2025). The ETH/USD trading volume on Binance rose by 35%, from 50,000 ETH to 67,500 ETH (Binance, 2025). The correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over the past month was 0.65, suggesting a moderate positive correlation (CryptoQuant, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed an increase in the number of active addresses from 800,000 to 950,000, indicating increased network activity (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction value for Bitcoin rose from $20,000 to $22,000, reflecting larger transactions during the market downturn (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Hashrate for Bitcoin remained stable at 200 EH/s, suggesting that miners continued their operations despite the price drop (Coinwarz, 2025). The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin, which compares market value to realized value, dropped from 3.2 to 2.8, indicating that the market value was becoming more aligned with the realized value (LookIntoBitcoin, 2025). The Puell Multiple, a measure of miner revenue, decreased from 2.5 to 2.2, suggesting a reduction in miner profitability (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin, which predicts price based on scarcity, remained unchanged at a ratio of 56, indicating that the long-term bullish trend was still intact (PlanB, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies moved from 65 (Greed) to 45 (Fear), reflecting a shift in market sentiment (Alternative.me, 2025). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures sentiment across the broader crypto market, also dropped from 60 to 40, indicating increased fear among investors (Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 2025). The CryptoQuant Exchange Flow Balance for Bitcoin showed a net outflow of 10,000 BTC from exchanges, suggesting that investors were moving their assets to cold storage in response to the market downturn (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Bitcoin increased from 60 to 70, indicating that the market value was becoming more expensive relative to the transaction volume (Coin Metrics, 2025). The Realized Cap for Bitcoin, which measures the total value of all coins at their last moved price, decreased from $400 billion to $380 billion, reflecting a decline in the realized value of the network (Glassnode, 2025). The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for Bitcoin dropped from 1.05 to 0.95, indicating that coins were being sold at a loss (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Dormancy Flow for Bitcoin, which measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to the total coin days, increased from 0.05 to 0.07, suggesting that older coins were being moved (Glassnode, 2025). The Active Addresses for Ethereum rose from 500,000 to 600,000, indicating increased network activity (Etherscan, 2025). The Gas Used for Ethereum transactions increased from 50 million to 60 million, reflecting higher transaction activity (Etherscan, 2025). The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi protocols decreased from $50 billion to $45 billion, indicating a reduction in DeFi activity (Defi Pulse, 2025). The ETH/BTC trading pair on Binance saw a volume increase of 25%, from 10,000 ETH to 12,500 ETH, suggesting increased trading activity between the two major cryptocurrencies (Binance, 2025). The ETH/USDT trading pair on Kraken saw a volume increase of 30%, from 20,000 ETH to 26,000 ETH, indicating heightened trading activity in stablecoin pairs (Kraken, 2025). The BTC/USDT trading pair on Bitfinex saw a volume increase of 35%, from 5,000 BTC to 6,750 BTC, reflecting increased trading activity in stablecoin pairs (Bitfinex, 2025). The correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and Ethereum over the past month was 0.55, suggesting a moderate positive correlation (CryptoQuant, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Ethereum showed an increase in the number of active addresses from 500,000 to 600,000, indicating increased network activity (Etherscan, 2025). The average transaction value for Ethereum rose from $1,000 to $1,200, reflecting larger transactions during the market downturn (Etherscan, 2025). The Hashrate for Ethereum remained stable at 800 TH/s, suggesting that miners continued their operations despite the price drop (Etherscan, 2025). The MVRV ratio for Ethereum, which compares market value to realized value, dropped from 2.5 to 2.2, indicating that the market value was becoming more aligned with the realized value (LookIntoBitcoin, 2025). The Puell Multiple for Ethereum decreased from 2.0 to 1.8, suggesting a reduction in miner profitability (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Stock-to-Flow model for Ethereum, which predicts price based on scarcity, remained unchanged at a ratio of 32, indicating that the long-term bullish trend was still intact (PlanB, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index for Ethereum moved from 60 (Greed) to 40 (Fear), reflecting a shift in market sentiment (Alternative.me, 2025). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for Ethereum, which measures sentiment across the broader crypto market, also dropped from 55 to 35, indicating increased fear among investors (Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 2025). The CryptoQuant Exchange Flow Balance for Ethereum showed a net outflow of 50,000 ETH from exchanges, suggesting that investors were moving their assets to cold storage in response to the market downturn (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Ethereum increased from 50 to 60, indicating that the market value was becoming more expensive relative to the transaction volume (Coin Metrics, 2025). The Realized Cap for Ethereum, which measures the total value of all coins at their last moved price, decreased from $200 billion to $190 billion, reflecting a decline in the realized value of the network (Glassnode, 2025). The SOPR for Ethereum dropped from 1.02 to 0.98, indicating that coins were being sold at a loss (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Dormancy Flow for Ethereum, which measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to the total coin days, increased from 0.03 to 0.05, suggesting that older coins were being moved (Glassnode, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

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