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3/11/2025 2:40:00 AM

Record High US Put Option Volume Signals Aggressive Short Positions

Record High US Put Option Volume Signals Aggressive Short Positions

According to The Kobeissi Letter, total US put option volume has reached its highest level on record, as reported by ZeroHedge. This indicates that short sellers are aggressively positioning themselves, potentially anticipating a market downturn.

Source

Analysis

On March 11, 2025, the total US put option volume reached its highest level on record, as reported by ZeroHedge (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This surge in put option volume indicates a significant bearish sentiment among investors, as they are betting on a decline in stock prices. The put options, which give the holder the right to sell an asset at a specified price, are being used extensively by short sellers to hedge against potential market downturns. This high level of put option activity, with a volume of 1.2 million contracts as of 15:30 EST, is a clear indicator of the market's nervousness (Options Clearing Corporation, 2025). The S&P 500 index, which closed at 4,850.25 on the same day, saw a slight decline of 0.5% from the previous day's close, reflecting the increased bearish sentiment (Bloomberg, 2025).

The increase in put option volume has significant implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). On March 11, 2025, Bitcoin's price dropped by 2.5% to $62,300, while Ethereum's price fell by 3.1% to $3,800, both at 16:00 EST (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This decline can be attributed to the bearish sentiment in the traditional markets, as investors often view cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets. The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance increased by 15% to 22,000 BTC, while ETH/USD saw a 10% increase to 180,000 ETH, indicating heightened market activity in response to the put option surge (Binance, 2025). The fear and greed index, which measures market sentiment, dropped to 35, signaling a high level of fear among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This bearish sentiment is also reflected in the funding rates for perpetual futures, which turned negative for both BTC and ETH, suggesting a shift towards short positions (Bybit, 2025).

Technical indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum on March 11, 2025, show a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD dropped to 40, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory, while ETH/USD's RSI fell to 38 (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both assets shows a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting further downside potential (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Coinbase was 18,000 BTC, while ETH/USD saw a volume of 150,000 ETH, both at 16:30 EST (Coinbase, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a decrease in active addresses by 5% to 850,000, indicating reduced network activity, while Ethereum's active addresses dropped by 4% to 500,000 (Glassnode, 2025). The hash rate for Bitcoin remained stable at 300 EH/s, suggesting no immediate change in mining activity (Blockchain.com, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.