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Quantum Computing Threat: Could 4 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Be at Risk by 2025? Crypto's Q-Day Apocalypse Looms | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/5/2025 12:02:00 PM

Quantum Computing Threat: Could 4 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Be at Risk by 2025? Crypto's Q-Day Apocalypse Looms

Quantum Computing Threat: Could 4 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Be at Risk by 2025? Crypto's Q-Day Apocalypse Looms

According to @QCompounding, the cryptocurrency market faces an imminent existential threat from quantum computing, termed 'Q-Day,' which could render current encryption methods for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) obsolete. The analysis highlights a warning from researchers that 4 million BTC, or about 25% of the usable supply, are vulnerable to theft once quantum computers become sufficiently powerful. This risk is amplified by 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' attacks, where encrypted data is being collected today for future decryption, a threat underscored by IBM Quantum's Jay Gambetta. Notably, BlackRock has added quantum computing as a critical risk factor in its Bitcoin ETF filing. While some experts project Q-Day is five to seven years away, sources like Tilo Kunz suggest it could arrive as soon as 2025. The proposed solution, migrating to post-quantum cryptography, presents its own trading risks, with estimates suggesting potential network downtime of 75 days for Bitcoin. In contrast, the analysis also points to the rapid growth of stablecoins, which are enabling a 'streaming economy' with near-instant, low-cost payments on Ethereum Layer 2 networks, potentially freeing up trillions in capital for investment. For traders, this presents a dual narrative: a catastrophic security risk versus a revolutionary shift in financial infrastructure.

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Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a complex landscape, balancing immediate technological advancements against looming existential threats. While major assets show mixed short-term performance, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding firm above the $108,000 mark and Ethereum (ETH) experiencing a slight pullback to around $2,513, deeper undercurrents are shaping the future of digital asset trading. Bitcoin, trading at $108,175.52 on the BTC/USDT pair, shows minimal volatility with a 0.04% change, but its foundational security is facing an unprecedented challenge. Similarly, Ethereum, down 0.78% against USDT, is at the heart of two conflicting narratives: a revolution in financial plumbing and a potential cryptographic apocalypse.



The Quantum Shadow: Is 'Q-Day' Already Priced In?



The concept of "Q-Day"—the moment a quantum computer can break current cryptographic standards—is no longer theoretical fodder for academics. It's a tangible risk that has now entered the institutional lexicon. In a landmark move in May 2025, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, explicitly included quantum computing as a critical risk factor in its Bitcoin ETF filing. The filing warned that quantum advances could fundamentally "undermine the viability" of the cryptographic algorithms that secure not only Bitcoin but the entire digital economy. This isn't a distant threat. According to Jay Gambetta, Vice President of IBM Quantum, malicious actors are already engaging in "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks, stockpiling encrypted data with the expectation of decrypting it once quantum capabilities are achieved. For traders, this raises a critical question: what is the real-world value of an asset if its core security could be compromised? Researchers estimate that as many as 4 million BTC, roughly 25% of the usable supply, are vulnerable to quantum attacks due to their legacy address formats. This potential supply shock could catastrophically flood the market, dwarfing the current 24-hour BTC/USDT volume of just 5 BTC and sending prices into a tailspin.



Ethereum's Existential Dilemma



Ethereum is in a similar, if not more complex, predicament. Its reliance on Elliptic Curve Cryptography makes it equally vulnerable. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has already acknowledged the threat, proposing emergency hard-forks as a potential, albeit drastic, solution. Such an event would require pausing the entire Ethereum blockchain for an indeterminate period, a move that would sow chaos across the DeFi and NFT ecosystems. The current price of the ETH/BTC pair, sitting at 0.02332 after a 0.55% decline, reflects short-term sentiment but fails to capture the magnitude of this long-term risk. A forced, multi-day or even multi-week network shutdown, as researchers at the University of Kent suggest could be necessary for a quantum-resistant upgrade, would shatter investor confidence and could lead to a permanent de-pegging of value from its pre-fork state.



The Counter-Narrative: The Dawn of Streaming Money



Simultaneously, a powerful bullish narrative is unfolding, centered on the very efficiency of blockchains like Ethereum. The rise of stablecoins, which now represent approximately 1% of the U.S. M2 money supply and are growing at 55% annually, is revolutionizing how value is transferred. The key enabler is the dramatic reduction in transaction costs on Ethereum Layer 2 networks, where fees are now routinely below one cent. This economic shift makes "streaming money"—instantaneous, granular payments—a reality. For corporations, this could unlock trillions in working capital by eliminating the need for large, localized cash buffers. For individuals, it could mean daily payroll and real-time billing. This narrative of profound utility provides a strong fundamental tailwind for ETH. The significant trading volume in pairs like SOL/ETH, which saw 164 ETH traded and a 2.59% price increase, indicates that traders are actively seeking high-throughput ecosystems capable of supporting this new financial paradigm. The question for traders is how to weigh this immediate, tangible utility against the abstract but catastrophic quantum risk.



For the savvy trader, this dichotomy presents a unique challenge and opportunity. The market is not yet pricing in the quantum premium. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are valued based on their current network effects and future utility, not their long-term cryptographic resilience. This suggests a potential portfolio strategy that balances high-utility assets like ETH and SOL with an allocation to emerging quantum-resistant projects. While Solana (SOL) trades robustly at $148.03, its long-term viability is tied to the same cryptographic assumptions as Ethereum. The real alpha may lie in identifying and investing in the infrastructure that will survive Q-Day. As warned by Iain Wood of QRL, by 2035, all viable blockchains will need to be post-quantum secure. The transition will be messy and fraught with risk, but for those who position correctly now, the rewards could be generational. The current market is a game of musical chairs, with traders enjoying the music of L2 scaling and stablecoin growth, all while the quantum computer slowly approaches to turn the music off.

Compounding Quality

@QCompounding

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