Place your ads here email us at info@blockchain.news
NEW
Quantum Computing Threat: BlackRock Warns on Bitcoin (BTC) ETF as Researchers Flag 4 Million BTC at Risk from Q-Day | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
Latest Update
7/4/2025 3:08:00 PM

Quantum Computing Threat: BlackRock Warns on Bitcoin (BTC) ETF as Researchers Flag 4 Million BTC at Risk from Q-Day

Quantum Computing Threat: BlackRock Warns on Bitcoin (BTC) ETF as Researchers Flag 4 Million BTC at Risk from Q-Day

According to @EmberCN, the cryptocurrency market faces a significant long-term risk from quantum computing, known as 'Q-Day,' which could render current encryption obsolete. Asset manager BlackRock has officially added quantum computing as a critical risk warning to its Bitcoin ETF filing, stating it could 'undermine the viability' of cryptographic algorithms used in Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets, according to the report. Researchers cited in the analysis warn that approximately 4 million BTC, representing about 25% of the usable supply, could be vulnerable to theft once quantum computers become powerful enough. Further highlighting the urgency, Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed emergency hard-fork solutions, and cybersecurity expert Tilo Kunz suggested Q-Day could arrive as soon as 2025. Separately, the analysis notes the recent movement of 20,000 BTC from wallets dormant since 2011, though the transfer to non-exchange addresses makes the immediate selling intent unclear.

Source

Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is navigating a turbulent period, marked by significant price corrections and unsettling on-chain activities that hint at deeper undercurrents of uncertainty. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a notable downturn, falling 2.02% to trade around $107,572.71 after failing to sustain momentum above the $109,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) has experienced an even sharper decline, dropping 3.83% to approximately $2,491.24. This bearish price action is unfolding against a backdrop of two powerful narratives: the sudden movement of over $2 billion in Bitcoin from 14-year-old wallets and the looming, existential threat of quantum computing, often dubbed "Q-Day." These factors combined are creating a complex environment for traders, where short-term volatility meets long-term strategic risk.

Ancient Bitcoin Whales Stir: A $2 Billion Signal?

Early Friday, the crypto community was set abuzz by a colossal on-chain transaction. According to data tracked by blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain, two wallets that had been dormant for nearly 14 years transferred a combined 20,000 BTC. These wallets, identified as "12tLs...xj2me" and "1KbrS...AWJYm," originally received the coins on April 3, 2011, when the price of a single Bitcoin was a mere 78 cents. Today, with that BTC valued at over $2 billion, the transaction represents an almost unfathomable 140,000-fold return on investment. While the immediate fear was a massive sell-off, analysis showed the funds were moved to new, non-exchange addresses, suggesting the motive might be wallet security upgrades or consolidation rather than imminent liquidation. However, the sheer scale of this movement from such ancient wallets injects significant anxiety into the market. It serves as a stark reminder of the vast, concentrated wealth held by early adopters, whose actions can single-handedly sway market sentiment and trigger sharp price movements. For traders, this event underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain data for signs of whale activity, which can act as a leading indicator for potential volatility spikes and tests of critical support levels, such as the current battleground around the $107,200 mark for BTC.

The Quantum Elephant in the Room: Is "Q-Day" a Real Trading Risk?

Beyond the immediate drama of whale movements lies a far more profound threat to the entire digital asset ecosystem: quantum computing. "Q-Day" refers to the hypothetical moment a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break the cryptographic algorithms that secure everything from Bitcoin wallets to global banking systems. As Jay Gambetta, Vice President of IBM Quantum, has starkly warned, this threat is not a distant sci-fi scenario. Malicious actors and nation-states are already engaged in "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks, stockpiling encrypted data with the expectation of cracking it once quantum supremacy is achieved. This long-term risk gained significant institutional acknowledgment when, according to a May 2025 filing, asset management giant BlackRock included quantum computing as a critical risk factor for its Bitcoin ETF, noting it could "undermine the viability" of the cryptocurrency. This isn't just institutional boilerplate; it's a signal that the most sophisticated financial players are beginning to price in this existential threat.

Assessing the Crypto Carnage: Vulnerabilities and Price Impact

The potential damage of Q-Day to the crypto market is staggering. Researchers have warned that as many as 4 million Bitcoin, roughly 25% of the circulating supply, are held in wallet addresses that use older, more vulnerable forms of encryption susceptible to quantum attacks. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rely on Elliptic Curve Cryptography, which quantum computers are predicted to break with relative ease. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has already floated proposals for emergency hard forks to migrate the network to quantum-resistant standards if an attack occurs. According to a December 2023 Reuters report, some experts like Tilo Kunz of Quantum Defen5e believe a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could emerge as soon as 2025. The fear is a catastrophic event where ancient wallets, like the ones moved recently, are cracked, flooding exchanges with billions of dollars worth of BTC and sending the price into a death spiral. This long-term risk makes the recent whale transfer doubly concerning—was it the owner securing their keys, or a prelude to a larger vulnerability being exposed?

Trading in the Shadow of Whales and Quantum Threats

For traders, this dual threat landscape demands a multi-layered strategy. The immediate price action shows BTC struggling to find support, with the 24-hour low at $107,267.71 serving as a critical line of defense. A break below this level could open the door to further downside. The weakness is echoed across the market, with the ETH/BTC pair down 1.85%, indicating that capital is flowing away from riskier altcoins and even major assets towards perceived safety, or out of the market entirely. While the whale movement creates short-term FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), the quantum threat is beginning to form a long-term bearish cloud over the entire asset class. Traders should consider diversifying into projects actively developing post-quantum cryptography, as highlighted by leaders like QRL's Iain Wood. The key takeaway is that the crypto market's risks are evolving. It's no longer just about technical analysis and Federal Reserve policy; it's about on-chain forensics and cryptographic resilience. Monitoring large transactions remains crucial for short-term opportunities, but understanding and positioning for the quantum era will likely separate the successful investors from the eventual casualties in the years to come.

余烬

@EmberCN

Analyst about On-chain Analysis

Place your ads here email us at info@blockchain.news