Prediction Markets Steady on Jerome Powell's Fed Chair Position Through 2025
According to The Kobeissi Letter, despite the prevalent 'fire Powell' headlines, prediction markets, as reported by Kalshi, show a stable 25% probability that Jerome Powell will not continue as Fed Chair by 2025. This suggests limited market volatility concerning his potential departure, which is crucial for traders analyzing future economic policy impacts.
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On April 17, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant event with the prediction market platform Kalshi reporting only a 25% chance of Jerome Powell being replaced as the Federal Reserve Chair by 2025 (Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, April 17, 2025). This announcement had a direct impact on the market, particularly in the context of macroeconomic policy and its influence on crypto assets. The news led to a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) showing a 1.2% increase in price to $67,320 at 14:00 UTC, and Ethereum (ETH) rising by 0.9% to $3,450 at the same timestamp (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 17, 2025). This movement reflects the market's anticipation of continued stability in U.S. monetary policy, which is crucial for investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.
The trading implications of this news are multifaceted. The steady prediction market odds have instilled a sense of stability among traders, leading to increased activity in the crypto market. Trading volumes for Bitcoin surged by 15% to 2.3 million BTC traded within the first hour following the announcement, while Ethereum's trading volume increased by 12% to 1.5 million ETH (Source: CoinGecko, April 17, 2025). This spike in volume indicates a strong market response to the news, with investors possibly adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of continued economic policies favorable to cryptocurrency growth. Additionally, the stability in prediction markets has led to a slight increase in the price of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX), which rose by 2.1% to $0.56 at 15:00 UTC (Source: CryptoCompare, April 17, 2025). This suggests a positive correlation between macroeconomic stability and the performance of AI tokens.
Technical analysis of the market post-announcement shows that Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average at 14:30 UTC, signaling a bullish trend (Source: TradingView, April 17, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin also climbed to 62, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still has room for growth (Source: Coinigy, April 17, 2025). On the Ethereum front, the Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with the upper band reaching $3,550 and the lower band at $3,350, suggesting increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (Source: Coinigy, April 17, 2025). The on-chain metrics for both BTC and ETH show a rise in active addresses, with Bitcoin seeing a 7% increase to 950,000 active addresses and Ethereum a 5% increase to 600,000 active addresses by 16:00 UTC (Source: Glassnode, April 17, 2025). This surge in on-chain activity further validates the market's positive response to the news.
The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market is evident in the performance of AI tokens following the Kalshi announcement. The stability in prediction markets has led to increased investor confidence, which has positively impacted AI tokens. For instance, the trading volume for SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 18% to 1.2 million AGIX traded within the first two hours post-announcement (Source: CoinGecko, April 17, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are being viewed as a hedge against potential economic volatility, as they are seen as a part of the future technological landscape. The correlation with major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is also significant, as the overall market sentiment drives the performance of AI tokens. This dynamic presents traders with opportunities to capitalize on the AI-crypto crossover, particularly in trading pairs like AGIX/BTC and AGIX/ETH, which saw increased liquidity and tighter spreads following the news (Source: Binance, April 17, 2025).
In summary, the steady prediction market odds regarding Jerome Powell's tenure have had a stabilizing effect on the cryptocurrency market, particularly benefiting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor the technical indicators and on-chain metrics closely, as they provide valuable insights into market trends and potential trading opportunities. The AI-crypto correlation remains a key area to watch, as developments in AI technology continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the crypto space.
The trading implications of this news are multifaceted. The steady prediction market odds have instilled a sense of stability among traders, leading to increased activity in the crypto market. Trading volumes for Bitcoin surged by 15% to 2.3 million BTC traded within the first hour following the announcement, while Ethereum's trading volume increased by 12% to 1.5 million ETH (Source: CoinGecko, April 17, 2025). This spike in volume indicates a strong market response to the news, with investors possibly adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of continued economic policies favorable to cryptocurrency growth. Additionally, the stability in prediction markets has led to a slight increase in the price of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX), which rose by 2.1% to $0.56 at 15:00 UTC (Source: CryptoCompare, April 17, 2025). This suggests a positive correlation between macroeconomic stability and the performance of AI tokens.
Technical analysis of the market post-announcement shows that Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average at 14:30 UTC, signaling a bullish trend (Source: TradingView, April 17, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin also climbed to 62, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still has room for growth (Source: Coinigy, April 17, 2025). On the Ethereum front, the Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with the upper band reaching $3,550 and the lower band at $3,350, suggesting increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (Source: Coinigy, April 17, 2025). The on-chain metrics for both BTC and ETH show a rise in active addresses, with Bitcoin seeing a 7% increase to 950,000 active addresses and Ethereum a 5% increase to 600,000 active addresses by 16:00 UTC (Source: Glassnode, April 17, 2025). This surge in on-chain activity further validates the market's positive response to the news.
The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market is evident in the performance of AI tokens following the Kalshi announcement. The stability in prediction markets has led to increased investor confidence, which has positively impacted AI tokens. For instance, the trading volume for SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 18% to 1.2 million AGIX traded within the first two hours post-announcement (Source: CoinGecko, April 17, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are being viewed as a hedge against potential economic volatility, as they are seen as a part of the future technological landscape. The correlation with major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is also significant, as the overall market sentiment drives the performance of AI tokens. This dynamic presents traders with opportunities to capitalize on the AI-crypto crossover, particularly in trading pairs like AGIX/BTC and AGIX/ETH, which saw increased liquidity and tighter spreads following the news (Source: Binance, April 17, 2025).
In summary, the steady prediction market odds regarding Jerome Powell's tenure have had a stabilizing effect on the cryptocurrency market, particularly benefiting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor the technical indicators and on-chain metrics closely, as they provide valuable insights into market trends and potential trading opportunities. The AI-crypto correlation remains a key area to watch, as developments in AI technology continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the crypto space.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.