Prediction Markets Anticipate 75 Basis Points Rate Cut by 2025
According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, foresee a total of 75 basis points reduction in interest rates by 2025, distributed over three cuts. This expectation arises amidst increasing recession probabilities, indicating potential rate cuts as early as next month.
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On April 3, 2025, prediction markets indicated a significant shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy, forecasting three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points throughout the year, according to data from Kalshi (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This anticipation arises as the probability of an impending recession increases, with markets now betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as May 2025 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This development has immediate repercussions across financial markets, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector where assets are often sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
In response to these predictions, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable price movement, rising from $60,000 to $62,500 within the first hour of the news breaking on April 3, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 15% over the same period, indicating heightened investor interest and potential accumulation in anticipation of a more favorable monetary environment (CryptoQuant, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a similar trend, with its price increasing from $3,200 to $3,350, and a 12% increase in trading volume (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair on Binance showed increased liquidity, with the spread narrowing by 10 basis points, suggesting more efficient market conditions (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics for both BTC and ETH revealed a significant increase in active addresses by 8% and 6% respectively, signaling broader market participation (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical analysis of the BTC/USD pair on April 3, 2025, shows the asset breaking above its 50-day moving average at $61,000, which could signal the start of a bullish trend if sustained (TradingView, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC climbed to 68, indicating strong buying pressure but also nearing overbought territory (Investing.com, 2025). ETH/USD displayed a similar pattern, with the price crossing the 50-day moving average at $3,300, and an RSI of 65 (TradingView, 2025). The 24-hour trading volume for BTC reached $30 billion, while ETH's volume was recorded at $15 billion, both reflecting significant market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These metrics suggest a robust response to the interest rate cut expectations, with traders actively positioning themselves for potential future gains.
The anticipation of interest rate cuts has also influenced AI-related tokens, such as SingularityNET (AGIX), which saw its price increase by 5% to $0.80 on April 3, 2025, following the news (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was observed at 0.75 and 0.72 respectively, suggesting a strong linkage driven by broader market sentiment (CryptoCompare, 2025). This correlation presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, as investors might look to diversify their portfolios into AI tokens that could benefit from the expected economic stimulus. The trading volume for AGIX increased by 20% on the same day, indicating growing interest in AI-driven assets amidst macroeconomic shifts (KuCoin, 2025). Additionally, sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of AI and cryptocurrency, reflecting a broader market optimism fueled by the interest rate cut predictions (Sentiment, 2025).
In response to these predictions, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable price movement, rising from $60,000 to $62,500 within the first hour of the news breaking on April 3, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 15% over the same period, indicating heightened investor interest and potential accumulation in anticipation of a more favorable monetary environment (CryptoQuant, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a similar trend, with its price increasing from $3,200 to $3,350, and a 12% increase in trading volume (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair on Binance showed increased liquidity, with the spread narrowing by 10 basis points, suggesting more efficient market conditions (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics for both BTC and ETH revealed a significant increase in active addresses by 8% and 6% respectively, signaling broader market participation (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical analysis of the BTC/USD pair on April 3, 2025, shows the asset breaking above its 50-day moving average at $61,000, which could signal the start of a bullish trend if sustained (TradingView, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC climbed to 68, indicating strong buying pressure but also nearing overbought territory (Investing.com, 2025). ETH/USD displayed a similar pattern, with the price crossing the 50-day moving average at $3,300, and an RSI of 65 (TradingView, 2025). The 24-hour trading volume for BTC reached $30 billion, while ETH's volume was recorded at $15 billion, both reflecting significant market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These metrics suggest a robust response to the interest rate cut expectations, with traders actively positioning themselves for potential future gains.
The anticipation of interest rate cuts has also influenced AI-related tokens, such as SingularityNET (AGIX), which saw its price increase by 5% to $0.80 on April 3, 2025, following the news (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was observed at 0.75 and 0.72 respectively, suggesting a strong linkage driven by broader market sentiment (CryptoCompare, 2025). This correlation presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, as investors might look to diversify their portfolios into AI tokens that could benefit from the expected economic stimulus. The trading volume for AGIX increased by 20% on the same day, indicating growing interest in AI-driven assets amidst macroeconomic shifts (KuCoin, 2025). Additionally, sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of AI and cryptocurrency, reflecting a broader market optimism fueled by the interest rate cut predictions (Sentiment, 2025).
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