According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump has publicly stated he would sign a ban on congressional stock trading, reinforcing his position with multiple endorsements. Despite this political momentum, leading prediction markets currently assign just a 7% probability to such a ban being enacted in 2025. Traders should note that while Trump's support could influence future volatility in related equities and legislative-focused ETFs, the low likelihood indicated by prediction markets suggests limited immediate impact on trading positions. Source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets reflect only a 25% probability of Jerome Powell being removed as Fed Chair by 2025, despite widespread headlines calling for his dismissal. This stability in prediction markets suggests a lower risk environment for investors in the near term, mitigating potential volatility that could impact cryptocurrency trading strategies.

According to [source name], despite the headlines calling for Jerome Powell's removal, prediction markets remain stable with only a 25% chance of him leaving his position as Fed Chair by 2025. This stability suggests limited immediate impact on cryptocurrency markets, offering traders a clearer outlook amid speculation.

According to [source], despite the noise surrounding the 'fire Powell' headlines, prediction markets remain stable, with only a 25% chance of Jerome Powell being out as Fed Chair in 2025. Traders are advised to consider this stability when making long-term investment decisions, as it reflects market sentiment towards Fed policy continuity.

According to Milk Road, Polymarket data reveals that the prediction markets forecast three rate cuts by 2025. Volume-weighted bets are focusing on this outcome, indicating that this expectation is being incorporated into asset pricing across markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, foresee a total of 75 basis points reduction in interest rates by 2025, distributed over three cuts. This expectation arises amidst increasing recession probabilities, indicating potential rate cuts as early as next month.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets are forecasting three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025 as recession probabilities rise, suggesting the Federal Reserve might be compelled to reduce rates as early as next month. This information is crucial for traders assessing the impact on market interest rates and bond yields.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, Vlad Tenev, founder of Robinhood, shared insights on the company's evolution into AI, crypto, and prediction markets, highlighting Robinhood's transition from a traditional brokerage to a diversified financial platform. The discussion also covered Robinhood's global expansion strategies, which are crucial for traders considering the platform's future capabilities and market positioning.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this has now fallen to a median forecast of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. The likelihood of a rate cut before June 2025 has also decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a less dovish monetary policy outlook.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this forecast has now decreased to a median of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also diminished.

According to @EleanorTerrett, Robinhood CEO @vladtenev has announced the company's move into prediction markets, inspired by the successes of @Polymarket and @Kalshi. This strategic expansion aims to integrate with digital platforms, as highlighted by discussions with @MyriadMarkets founders about their onchain prediction markets.

According to Polynomial, the Polynomial Portals concept introduces a novel approach to crypto trading by enabling trade triggers powered by real-world events. This innovation allows for automatic adjustments to ETH positions based on shifts in Fed sentiment or scaling into perpetual contracts when prediction markets signal a regime change, potentially offering traders a more responsive and dynamic trading strategy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Kalshi now controls 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market, marking it as a 'covered' exchange. This significant milestone is attributed to the exchange surpassing $2 billion in trade volume, indicating rapid evolution in prediction markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets have recently adjusted their forecasts for Bitcoin's bottom price in 2025 to $62,000, marking a decrease of approximately $18,000 since February 23rd. This shift indicates a potential bearish outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Furthermore, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has also decreased, suggesting tempered expectations for significant bullish trends in the near future.

According to @KobeissiLetter, recent data from prediction markets indicate that the expected bottom for Bitcoin in 2025 has been adjusted to $62,000. This forecast has decreased by approximately $18,000 since February 23rd, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has diminished, impacting traders' long-term positioning strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% by 2025, as per data from @Kalshi. This signifies a substantial increase from the 2.3% inflation expectation recorded on December 1st, 2024. Additionally, there is a growing 22% probability that inflation could exceed 4.0%, indicating potential volatility in economic conditions. Traders should closely monitor these shifts, as they could impact investment strategies and interest rate expectations.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now predict a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% in 2025. This marks a significant shift from the December 1st projection of 2.3% inflation for the same year. Additionally, there is now a 22% chance that inflation could exceed this 4% mark, indicating potential upward pressure on interest rates and market volatility.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast Bitcoin rising to $124,000 as the base case for 2025, a decrease of $25,000 since January, as reported by @Kalshi. Furthermore, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year is now seen at just 36%.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now anticipate that DOGE will be involved in cutting 317,000 government jobs by 2025. This figure has risen significantly from the 200,000 job cuts predicted just nine days ago. Traders should closely monitor these developments as they may impact market dynamics and sentiment around DOGE.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast that DOGE will be responsible for cutting 317,000 government employees by 2025 as reported by @Kalshi. This is a significant increase from the 200,000 job cuts expected just nine days prior, highlighting a rapidly changing market sentiment that could influence DOGE trading strategies.