Potential Impact of Trump's Actions on Crypto Market Trends
According to Omkar Godbole, a delay in concrete actions from Trump could lead to a deeper price drop in the cryptocurrency market, despite the current market bounce. This suggests that traders should monitor political developments closely as they may significantly influence market dynamics.
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On March 3, 2025, Omkar Godbole, an analyst with a Master's in Management Studies in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), expressed concerns about the sustainability of the recent crypto market bounce. In a tweet at 10:45 AM UTC, Godbole stated, "Trump needs to walk the talk soon otherwise this crypto market bounce will likely translate into a deeper price drop" (Godbole, 2025). This statement was made in the context of a market that had seen a 7.2% increase in the total cryptocurrency market cap over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.3 trillion at 9:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The bounce was primarily driven by Bitcoin (BTC) which surged 8.5% to $52,300, and Ethereum (ETH) which rose 6.8% to $3,400 (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance reached $35 billion in the last 24 hours ending at 9:00 AM UTC, marking a significant increase from the $28 billion recorded the previous day (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase saw a volume of $15 billion, up from $12 billion the day before (Coinbase, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a spike in active addresses for both BTC and ETH, with BTC active addresses reaching 1.2 million and ETH active addresses at 800,000 as of 8:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025).
The implications of Godbole's statement for traders are significant. If President Trump fails to deliver on his promises regarding cryptocurrency regulation or support, the current market bounce could indeed reverse, leading to a deeper price drop. This sentiment is reflected in the increased volatility observed in the market, with the 30-day volatility index for BTC reaching 45% and for ETH at 38% as of 10:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (CryptoVol, 2025). Traders should closely monitor any upcoming announcements from the Trump administration, especially those related to crypto policy. The trading pairs BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT on Binance showed a slight increase in the bid-ask spread to 0.15% and 0.20% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty (Binance, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, stood at 62 (Greed) at 9:30 AM UTC, up from 55 (Neutral) the previous day (Alternative.me, 2025). This suggests that the market is currently driven by speculative buying, which could be vulnerable to negative news.
From a technical analysis perspective, BTC/USD is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $49,500 but below its 200-day moving average of $55,000 as of 10:30 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). This indicates a potential bearish divergence, which could be exacerbated by any negative news from Trump. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68, suggesting that the asset might be overbought and due for a correction (TradingView, 2025). ETH/USD, on the other hand, is trading above both its 50-day ($3,200) and 200-day ($3,100) moving averages, indicating a more bullish outlook, although its RSI of 72 also suggests overbought conditions (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on Kraken was $5 billion, while for ETH/USD it was $3 billion in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (Kraken, 2025). These volumes indicate strong market interest but also highlight the potential for a sharp reversal if the market sentiment shifts.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct developments that would immediately impact AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET) as of March 3, 2025. However, the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong. For instance, AGIX saw a 5.2% increase to $0.85 and FET rose 4.8% to $1.10 in the last 24 hours ending at 9:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX/USD on KuCoin was $100 million, and for FET/USD it was $150 million, indicating a growing interest in AI tokens (KuCoin, 2025). While there are no AI-specific news to report, the general market sentiment and movements in major cryptocurrencies continue to influence the performance of AI tokens. Traders should keep an eye on any AI developments that could potentially shift market sentiment and drive trading volumes in AI-related tokens.
The implications of Godbole's statement for traders are significant. If President Trump fails to deliver on his promises regarding cryptocurrency regulation or support, the current market bounce could indeed reverse, leading to a deeper price drop. This sentiment is reflected in the increased volatility observed in the market, with the 30-day volatility index for BTC reaching 45% and for ETH at 38% as of 10:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (CryptoVol, 2025). Traders should closely monitor any upcoming announcements from the Trump administration, especially those related to crypto policy. The trading pairs BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT on Binance showed a slight increase in the bid-ask spread to 0.15% and 0.20% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty (Binance, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, stood at 62 (Greed) at 9:30 AM UTC, up from 55 (Neutral) the previous day (Alternative.me, 2025). This suggests that the market is currently driven by speculative buying, which could be vulnerable to negative news.
From a technical analysis perspective, BTC/USD is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $49,500 but below its 200-day moving average of $55,000 as of 10:30 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). This indicates a potential bearish divergence, which could be exacerbated by any negative news from Trump. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68, suggesting that the asset might be overbought and due for a correction (TradingView, 2025). ETH/USD, on the other hand, is trading above both its 50-day ($3,200) and 200-day ($3,100) moving averages, indicating a more bullish outlook, although its RSI of 72 also suggests overbought conditions (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on Kraken was $5 billion, while for ETH/USD it was $3 billion in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (Kraken, 2025). These volumes indicate strong market interest but also highlight the potential for a sharp reversal if the market sentiment shifts.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct developments that would immediately impact AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET) as of March 3, 2025. However, the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong. For instance, AGIX saw a 5.2% increase to $0.85 and FET rose 4.8% to $1.10 in the last 24 hours ending at 9:00 AM UTC on March 3, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX/USD on KuCoin was $100 million, and for FET/USD it was $150 million, indicating a growing interest in AI tokens (KuCoin, 2025). While there are no AI-specific news to report, the general market sentiment and movements in major cryptocurrencies continue to influence the performance of AI tokens. Traders should keep an eye on any AI developments that could potentially shift market sentiment and drive trading volumes in AI-related tokens.
Omkar Godbole, MMS Finance, CMT
@godbole17Staff of MMS Finance.