Potential Bitcoin Uptrend Forecasted Until June 2025 Based on Seasonality
According to André Dragosch, PhD, historical patterns and seasonality suggest that Bitcoin is expected to trend upwards at least until June 2025. This analysis is based on observed historical trends, which can influence trading strategies by indicating potential bullish momentum in the coming months. Traders might consider this historical insight when planning their Bitcoin investment strategies. Source: André Dragosch on Twitter.
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On February 7, 2025, André Dragosch, a notable figure in the cryptocurrency and macroeconomics space, tweeted an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a bullish trend until June 2025 based on historical and seasonal trends (Twitter, @Andre_Dragosch, February 7, 2025). At the time of his tweet, Bitcoin was trading at $54,321 with a 24-hour volume of $23.4 billion (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The tweet coincided with a period of market stability, with Bitcoin's price showing a 0.5% increase in the last hour, suggesting a consolidation phase before potential further gains (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). Additionally, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stood at $1.7 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance at 47.5% (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). This data reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic, aligning with Dragosch's prediction of a sustained upward trend.
The trading implications of Dragosch's prediction are significant. For traders, this suggests holding long positions in Bitcoin, potentially benefiting from the expected upward trend until June 2025. On February 7, 2025, the BTC/USD pair showed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating strong buying pressure (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase was up by 10% from the previous day, reaching $12.1 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). Moreover, the BTC/ETH pair was trading at 17.3 ETH, with a 24-hour volume of $3.2 billion, showing a slight increase of 1.2% in the last 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). This data suggests that traders are actively engaging with Bitcoin, potentially in anticipation of the predicted bullish trend. On-chain metrics further support this optimism, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses increasing by 5% over the past week to 1.2 million (Glassnode, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC).
Technical indicators as of February 7, 2025, provide additional insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The 50-day moving average was at $52,100, and the 200-day moving average was at $48,500, both of which Bitcoin's price was above, further supporting the bullish outlook (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). Trading volumes across multiple trading pairs also showed strength. The BTC/USDT pair on Binance had a volume of $11.2 billion, while the BTC/EUR pair on Kraken had a volume of $1.8 billion, both showing increases of 8% and 6%, respectively, from the previous day (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). These volumes indicate sustained interest and liquidity in Bitcoin markets, aligning with the predicted bullish trend.
In the context of AI developments, there have been no specific AI-related news on February 7, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, ongoing AI research and development continue to influence market sentiment. The AI token sector, represented by tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), showed stable performance with AGIX trading at $0.32 and FET at $0.45, with 24-hour volumes of $50 million and $60 million, respectively (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.15 for AGIX and Bitcoin, and 0.12 for FET and Bitcoin over the past month (CryptoQuant, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). This suggests that AI developments have a limited direct impact on Bitcoin's price movements but may influence broader market sentiment. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volumes and sentiment indicators for potential crossover opportunities, as AI technologies continue to evolve and potentially impact the crypto market in the future.
The trading implications of Dragosch's prediction are significant. For traders, this suggests holding long positions in Bitcoin, potentially benefiting from the expected upward trend until June 2025. On February 7, 2025, the BTC/USD pair showed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating strong buying pressure (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase was up by 10% from the previous day, reaching $12.1 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). Moreover, the BTC/ETH pair was trading at 17.3 ETH, with a 24-hour volume of $3.2 billion, showing a slight increase of 1.2% in the last 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). This data suggests that traders are actively engaging with Bitcoin, potentially in anticipation of the predicted bullish trend. On-chain metrics further support this optimism, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses increasing by 5% over the past week to 1.2 million (Glassnode, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC).
Technical indicators as of February 7, 2025, provide additional insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The 50-day moving average was at $52,100, and the 200-day moving average was at $48,500, both of which Bitcoin's price was above, further supporting the bullish outlook (TradingView, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). Trading volumes across multiple trading pairs also showed strength. The BTC/USDT pair on Binance had a volume of $11.2 billion, while the BTC/EUR pair on Kraken had a volume of $1.8 billion, both showing increases of 8% and 6%, respectively, from the previous day (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). These volumes indicate sustained interest and liquidity in Bitcoin markets, aligning with the predicted bullish trend.
In the context of AI developments, there have been no specific AI-related news on February 7, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, ongoing AI research and development continue to influence market sentiment. The AI token sector, represented by tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), showed stable performance with AGIX trading at $0.32 and FET at $0.45, with 24-hour volumes of $50 million and $60 million, respectively (CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.15 for AGIX and Bitcoin, and 0.12 for FET and Bitcoin over the past month (CryptoQuant, February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC). This suggests that AI developments have a limited direct impact on Bitcoin's price movements but may influence broader market sentiment. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volumes and sentiment indicators for potential crossover opportunities, as AI technologies continue to evolve and potentially impact the crypto market in the future.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.