According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global energy markets, with 20% of the world’s oil supply passing through its narrow 21-mile channel. A single blockade could drive oil prices above $150 overnight, surpassing the daily oil traffic of both the Panama and Suez Canals combined. For cryptocurrency traders, such a geopolitical event could trigger heightened volatility as oil-driven inflation impacts global risk sentiment, potentially influencing the value of BTC and other digital assets (Source: @KobeissiLetter, June 22, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, following US strikes on Iran, over 50 large oil tankers rushed to exit the Strait of Hormuz, with markets currently closed but an immediate drop in oil supply expected to push prices higher (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 22, 2025). JP Morgan identified this scenario as the worst case in the Israel-Iran conflict. Traders should anticipate significant oil price volatility impacting global risk sentiment. This could drive increased volatility across crypto markets, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as investors historically move toward or away from digital assets during major geopolitical disruptions (source: JP Morgan, The Kobeissi Letter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan estimates that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices up to $120-$130 per barrel, which would likely push US CPI inflation to around 5%. The last time US inflation reached this level was in March 2023, prompting aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 22, 2025). For crypto traders, such a spike in inflation and potential Fed tightening historically led to increased volatility in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other digital assets, as investors react to macroeconomic stress and seek alternative stores of value.

According to @AltcoinGordon, during the 1991 Gulf War, oil prices surged while the S&P 500 ($SPX) initially dipped but rebounded rapidly with a 17% gain within weeks (source: Twitter/@AltcoinGordon, June 20, 2025). For traders, this historical pattern highlights how geopolitical shocks can trigger short-term volatility but also present swift recovery opportunities in both traditional and crypto markets, as risk sentiment and capital flows often spill over into digital assets.