According to @FoxNews, the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year has surged to 52% on the prediction market Polymarket, following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. A closure of the strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil consumption passes according to the Middle East Forum Observer, could cause a significant oil price shock. JPMorgan analysts predict crude oil prices could jump to $120-$130 per barrel, potentially leading to stagflation, a negative outcome for financial assets including cryptocurrencies. While the broader crypto market has remained stable with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $108,000, a Solana-based digital oil memecoin (OIL) has skyrocketed over 400%, per DEXTools.io data, reacting to the geopolitical tensions. Iranian politicians are reportedly leaning towards the closure, though the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council, as stated by France 24 correspondent Saeed Azimi.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 has increased to 47% despite ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. This shift suggests that markets are currently pricing in only a short-lived conflict, leading to reduced risk premiums in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor developments closely, as a confirmed nuclear agreement could further stabilize oil prices and decrease volatility for cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, which often react to geopolitical uncertainty. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 18, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold is maintaining its strength, signaling that markets do not expect a major global conflict despite ongoing Israel-Iran tensions. Oil prices have risen by approximately 2% today, reflecting immediate geopolitical concerns, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.50%. Market sentiment, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter, suggests these factors are not expected to pose a significant long-term headwind. For cryptocurrency traders, this relative market stability and risk-on sentiment could support continued resilience in major assets like BTC and ETH, as traditional safe havens such as gold absorb short-term shocks. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 17, 2025)

According to Cas Abbé on Twitter, despite widespread concerns about a potential World War 3, key market indicators such as the S&P 500 being only 2% below its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $100,000, oil trading below $100 per barrel, and gold remaining under $4,000 suggest that global financial markets are not currently pricing in a significant geopolitical crisis. This resilience highlights ongoing bullish sentiment in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency market, indicating that traders do not perceive imminent global conflict as a high-probability event at this time (source: Cas Abbé, Twitter, June 17, 2025).