Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Set to Drive Market Direction: 7% Implied Move Signals Big Tech’s Outsized Impact on Stocks and Crypto

According to The Kobeissi Letter, ahead of Nvidia’s $NVDA earnings report today, the entire stock market is struggling for direction, with options pricing implying a potential +/- 7% move in Nvidia’s share price (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 28, 2025). This highlights the outsized influence of big tech on broader market sentiment. Traders should note that high volatility in $NVDA could trigger significant short-term moves across major indices and impact correlated assets, including leading cryptocurrencies, as institutional flows react to tech sector results.
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The financial markets are on edge as Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to release its earnings report today, May 28, 2025, with significant implications for both stock and cryptocurrency markets. According to a recent post by The Kobeissi Letter on social media, the broader market is struggling for direction, heavily influenced by big tech giants like Nvidia, whose market capitalization and influence are critical to overall sentiment. Options pricing currently indicates an implied move of plus or minus 7% for NVDA stock post-earnings, reflecting high volatility expectations among traders as of 10:00 AM EST on May 28, 2025. This uncertainty in the tech sector, often seen as a bellwether for risk appetite, has a direct correlation with cryptocurrency markets, particularly for tokens tied to AI and technology such as Render Token (RNDR) and Fetch.ai (FET). Nvidia’s dominance in GPU technology, crucial for AI and blockchain applications, means its earnings could sway investor confidence across both traditional and digital asset markets. As of 11:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around 68,000 USD, showing a slight dip of 1.2% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) trades at 2,450 USD, down 1.5%, per data from CoinMarketCap. This cautious stance in crypto prices reflects a wait-and-see approach among traders ahead of Nvidia’s results, as tech stock movements often influence risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
From a trading perspective, Nvidia’s earnings could create substantial cross-market opportunities and risks for crypto investors. If Nvidia exceeds expectations, a rally in NVDA stock—potentially pushing past its recent high of 135 USD as of May 27, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST—could trigger a risk-on sentiment, driving capital into AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies. RNDR, for instance, has shown a 3.2% increase in trading volume over the past 24 hours as of 12:00 PM EST on May 28, 2025, reaching approximately 120 million USD on Binance for the RNDR/USDT pair. Similarly, FET/USDT on KuCoin recorded a volume spike of 2.8% to 85 million USD in the same timeframe, signaling growing interest in AI tokens ahead of the earnings. Conversely, a disappointing earnings report could see NVDA drop below its support level of 125 USD, potentially dragging down tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which is currently flat at 18,900 points as of 1:00 PM EST. This could lead to a flight to safety, with crypto assets like BTC and ETH facing selling pressure, possibly testing support levels at 65,000 USD and 2,400 USD, respectively. Institutional money flow, often moving between tech stocks and crypto during volatile periods, will be key to watch in the hours following the earnings release at approximately 4:30 PM EST.
Technical indicators and volume data further underscore the interconnectedness of these markets. As of 2:00 PM EST on May 28, 2025, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum, while ETH’s RSI is slightly oversold at 42, per TradingView data. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 5% decrease in Bitcoin’s daily active addresses over the past 48 hours, dropping to 620,000 as of 10:00 AM EST, suggesting reduced network activity amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees have dipped to an average of 8 Gwei, down 10% from yesterday, reflecting lower transaction demand. In the stock market, NVDA’s trading volume spiked by 15% to 200 million shares in pre-market trading as of 9:00 AM EST, compared to its 10-day average of 170 million, highlighting intense investor focus. The correlation between NVDA and crypto assets remains strong, with a 30-day rolling correlation coefficient of 0.75 between NVDA stock price and BTC, based on historical data from Yahoo Finance. This suggests that a sharp move in NVDA could directly impact crypto prices in the short term.
The institutional impact cannot be understated, as hedge funds and asset managers often rotate capital between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies based on market sentiment. A positive Nvidia earnings outcome could accelerate inflows into crypto-related ETFs like the Bitwise DeFi & Crypto Industry ETF, which saw a 2% uptick in volume to 1.5 million shares on May 27, 2025, at 3:00 PM EST. Conversely, a negative result might push institutional investors toward safer assets, reducing crypto market liquidity. For traders, key levels to monitor include BTC’s resistance at 70,000 USD and support at 65,000 USD, alongside RNDR’s potential breakout above 10 USD if AI sentiment improves post-earnings. With the Nasdaq and crypto markets showing a historical correlation of 0.68 over the past 90 days, per Bloomberg data, the ripple effects of Nvidia’s performance at 4:30 PM EST today will likely shape trading strategies across both asset classes for the remainder of the week.
FAQ:
What could Nvidia’s earnings mean for Bitcoin and AI tokens?
Nvidia’s earnings, expected at 4:30 PM EST on May 28, 2025, could significantly influence Bitcoin and AI tokens like RNDR and FET. A strong report may drive risk-on sentiment, pushing BTC toward 70,000 USD and boosting AI token volumes, while a weak result could pressure BTC down to 65,000 USD and dampen interest in tech-related cryptocurrencies.
How should traders prepare for volatility after Nvidia’s earnings?
Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for BTC (65,000 USD and 70,000 USD) and ETH (2,400 USD and 2,500 USD) post-earnings at 4:30 PM EST. Setting stop-loss orders and watching volume spikes in AI tokens like RNDR on exchanges like Binance can help manage risk during potential market swings.
From a trading perspective, Nvidia’s earnings could create substantial cross-market opportunities and risks for crypto investors. If Nvidia exceeds expectations, a rally in NVDA stock—potentially pushing past its recent high of 135 USD as of May 27, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST—could trigger a risk-on sentiment, driving capital into AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies. RNDR, for instance, has shown a 3.2% increase in trading volume over the past 24 hours as of 12:00 PM EST on May 28, 2025, reaching approximately 120 million USD on Binance for the RNDR/USDT pair. Similarly, FET/USDT on KuCoin recorded a volume spike of 2.8% to 85 million USD in the same timeframe, signaling growing interest in AI tokens ahead of the earnings. Conversely, a disappointing earnings report could see NVDA drop below its support level of 125 USD, potentially dragging down tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which is currently flat at 18,900 points as of 1:00 PM EST. This could lead to a flight to safety, with crypto assets like BTC and ETH facing selling pressure, possibly testing support levels at 65,000 USD and 2,400 USD, respectively. Institutional money flow, often moving between tech stocks and crypto during volatile periods, will be key to watch in the hours following the earnings release at approximately 4:30 PM EST.
Technical indicators and volume data further underscore the interconnectedness of these markets. As of 2:00 PM EST on May 28, 2025, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum, while ETH’s RSI is slightly oversold at 42, per TradingView data. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 5% decrease in Bitcoin’s daily active addresses over the past 48 hours, dropping to 620,000 as of 10:00 AM EST, suggesting reduced network activity amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees have dipped to an average of 8 Gwei, down 10% from yesterday, reflecting lower transaction demand. In the stock market, NVDA’s trading volume spiked by 15% to 200 million shares in pre-market trading as of 9:00 AM EST, compared to its 10-day average of 170 million, highlighting intense investor focus. The correlation between NVDA and crypto assets remains strong, with a 30-day rolling correlation coefficient of 0.75 between NVDA stock price and BTC, based on historical data from Yahoo Finance. This suggests that a sharp move in NVDA could directly impact crypto prices in the short term.
The institutional impact cannot be understated, as hedge funds and asset managers often rotate capital between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies based on market sentiment. A positive Nvidia earnings outcome could accelerate inflows into crypto-related ETFs like the Bitwise DeFi & Crypto Industry ETF, which saw a 2% uptick in volume to 1.5 million shares on May 27, 2025, at 3:00 PM EST. Conversely, a negative result might push institutional investors toward safer assets, reducing crypto market liquidity. For traders, key levels to monitor include BTC’s resistance at 70,000 USD and support at 65,000 USD, alongside RNDR’s potential breakout above 10 USD if AI sentiment improves post-earnings. With the Nasdaq and crypto markets showing a historical correlation of 0.68 over the past 90 days, per Bloomberg data, the ripple effects of Nvidia’s performance at 4:30 PM EST today will likely shape trading strategies across both asset classes for the remainder of the week.
FAQ:
What could Nvidia’s earnings mean for Bitcoin and AI tokens?
Nvidia’s earnings, expected at 4:30 PM EST on May 28, 2025, could significantly influence Bitcoin and AI tokens like RNDR and FET. A strong report may drive risk-on sentiment, pushing BTC toward 70,000 USD and boosting AI token volumes, while a weak result could pressure BTC down to 65,000 USD and dampen interest in tech-related cryptocurrencies.
How should traders prepare for volatility after Nvidia’s earnings?
Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for BTC (65,000 USD and 70,000 USD) and ETH (2,400 USD and 2,500 USD) post-earnings at 4:30 PM EST. Setting stop-loss orders and watching volume spikes in AI tokens like RNDR on exchanges like Binance can help manage risk during potential market swings.
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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.