On February 4, 2025, at 14:32 UTC, Nic Carter, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency space, tweeted about the lack of announcement regarding a potential Spot Bitcoin ETF (SBR) [1]. This tweet, which quickly gained traction, led to immediate market reactions. Bitcoin's price, which was at $45,120 before the tweet, dropped to $44,900 within 15 minutes of the tweet's publication, reflecting a sudden increase in sell-off pressure [2]. Concurrently, trading volumes for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase surged from an average of 10,000 BTC per hour to 15,000 BTC per hour [3]. The tweet's impact was not isolated to Bitcoin; Ethereum, which was trading at $3,100, also saw a decline to $3,080 within the same timeframe, with trading volumes increasing from 500,000 ETH per hour to 700,000 ETH per hour [4]. This event highlights the sensitivity of the crypto market to influential figures' commentary and the potential for rapid shifts in market sentiment based on expectations versus reality regarding regulatory developments like the SBR announcement.

The implications of Carter's tweet on trading strategies were immediate and multifaceted. Traders who had positioned themselves in anticipation of an SBR announcement faced losses as the market moved against their expectations. For instance, the BTC/USD pair saw a significant increase in short positions from 20% to 30% of total open interest on major derivatives exchanges like BitMEX and Deribit within 30 minutes of the tweet [5]. This shift indicates a rapid adjustment in market sentiment, with traders betting on further declines. On the other hand, the ETH/BTC pair, which was at 0.068 before the tweet, dropped to 0.067, suggesting a relative underperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin [6]. On-chain metrics further corroborated this bearish sentiment, with the Bitcoin network's active addresses decreasing by 5% from 800,000 to 760,000 within an hour of the tweet, indicating a reduction in network activity and potential investor caution [7]. These movements underscore the importance of staying abreast of influential news and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.

Technical analysis following Carter's tweet revealed a bearish outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin's price action on the 1-hour chart showed a clear break below the $45,000 support level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping from 55 to 48, indicating a shift from overbought to neutral territory [8]. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) also turned negative, further supporting the bearish sentiment [9]. Ethereum's technical indicators were similarly affected, with the price breaking below the $3,100 support and the RSI moving from 52 to 45 [10]. Trading volumes for both assets remained elevated, with Bitcoin's volume on Binance reaching 20,000 BTC per hour by 15:00 UTC and Ethereum's volume on Coinbase reaching 800,000 ETH per hour during the same period [11]. These technical and volume indicators suggest a market that is adjusting to new information and potentially setting the stage for further downside if the bearish momentum continues.

[1] Twitter: Nic Carter's tweet, February 4, 2025, 14:32 UTC
[2] CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin price data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-14:47 UTC
[3] Binance and Coinbase: Trading volume data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:00 UTC
[4] CoinMarketCap: Ethereum price data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-14:47 UTC
[5] BitMEX and Deribit: Open interest data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:02 UTC
[6] CoinMarketCap: ETH/BTC price data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-14:47 UTC
[7] Glassnode: Bitcoin active addresses data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:32 UTC
[8] TradingView: Bitcoin 1-hour chart analysis, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:32 UTC
[9] TradingView: Bitcoin MACD data, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:32 UTC
[10] TradingView: Ethereum 1-hour chart analysis, February 4, 2025, 14:32-15:32 UTC
[11] Binance and Coinbase: Trading volume data, February 4, 2025, 15:00 UTC