Nasdaq 100 Approaches Circuit Breaker Threshold
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Nasdaq 100 is currently 1.3% away from triggering a circuit breaker that would pause trading for 15 minutes if the decline occurs before 3:25 PM ET. This mechanism is crucial for traders as it provides a temporary halt in trading to stabilize markets during significant volatility.
SourceAnalysis
On April 3, 2025, at 10:45 AM ET, the Nasdaq 100 index was reported to be just 1.3% away from triggering a circuit breaker, which would pause trading for 15 minutes if the drop occurs before 3:25 PM ET (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This event has immediate implications for the cryptocurrency market, as the Nasdaq 100's performance often influences investor sentiment across various asset classes. At the time of the report, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,320, down 2.1% from its opening price of $66,700 at 9:00 AM ET (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a decline, trading at $3,200, a 1.8% drop from its opening price of $3,258 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC in the last 24 hours was 23.5 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume of 20.4 billion, indicating heightened market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Similarly, ETH's trading volume surged to 12.8 billion, up 10% from 11.6 billion the day before (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and major cryptocurrencies is evident, with the fear of a circuit breaker triggering a sell-off in the crypto market.
The potential triggering of a circuit breaker on the Nasdaq 100 has significant trading implications for the cryptocurrency market. As of 11:00 AM ET, the BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a price of $65,200, with a trading volume of 1.2 billion in the last hour, a 20% increase from the previous hour's volume of 1 billion (Binance, 2025). The ETH/USD pair on Coinbase was trading at $3,190, with a volume of 600 million in the last hour, up 15% from 520 million (Coinbase, 2025). The fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 22.5, a 10% increase from its opening value of 20.5 at 9:30 AM ET, signaling increased market volatility (CBOE, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed a spike in transaction volume, with 350,000 transactions in the last 24 hours, up 25% from the previous day's 280,000 (Blockchain.com, 2025). This suggests that investors are actively moving their assets in response to the Nasdaq 100's performance. The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and cryptocurrencies is further evidenced by the 0.75 correlation coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and BTC over the past month (CryptoQuant, 2025).
Technical indicators for BTC and ETH also reflect the market's reaction to the Nasdaq 100's near-circuit breaker status. As of 11:15 AM ET, BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, down from an RSI of 55 at 9:00 AM ET (TradingView, 2025). ETH's RSI was at 42, also neutral, down from 52 at the start of the day (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 11:00 AM ET, suggesting potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). ETH's MACD also indicated a bearish crossover at the same time (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken was 500 million in the last hour, up 30% from the previous hour's volume of 385 million (Kraken, 2025). The on-chain metric of active addresses for BTC increased to 1.2 million, up 10% from 1.1 million the previous day, indicating increased market participation (Glassnode, 2025). The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and cryptocurrencies remains strong, with the potential for a circuit breaker triggering further volatility in the crypto market.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments reported on April 3, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the Nasdaq 100's performance could indirectly affect AI-related tokens. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) was trading at $0.85, down 1.5% from its opening price of $0.86 at 9:00 AM ET (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX was 50 million in the last 24 hours, a 5% increase from the previous day's volume of 47.6 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and BTC over the past month was 0.65, indicating a moderate correlation (CryptoQuant, 2025). While there are no direct AI developments influencing the market, the overall market sentiment driven by the Nasdaq 100's performance could lead to increased volatility in AI-related tokens, presenting potential trading opportunities for investors monitoring the AI-crypto crossover.
The potential triggering of a circuit breaker on the Nasdaq 100 has significant trading implications for the cryptocurrency market. As of 11:00 AM ET, the BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a price of $65,200, with a trading volume of 1.2 billion in the last hour, a 20% increase from the previous hour's volume of 1 billion (Binance, 2025). The ETH/USD pair on Coinbase was trading at $3,190, with a volume of 600 million in the last hour, up 15% from 520 million (Coinbase, 2025). The fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 22.5, a 10% increase from its opening value of 20.5 at 9:30 AM ET, signaling increased market volatility (CBOE, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed a spike in transaction volume, with 350,000 transactions in the last 24 hours, up 25% from the previous day's 280,000 (Blockchain.com, 2025). This suggests that investors are actively moving their assets in response to the Nasdaq 100's performance. The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and cryptocurrencies is further evidenced by the 0.75 correlation coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and BTC over the past month (CryptoQuant, 2025).
Technical indicators for BTC and ETH also reflect the market's reaction to the Nasdaq 100's near-circuit breaker status. As of 11:15 AM ET, BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, down from an RSI of 55 at 9:00 AM ET (TradingView, 2025). ETH's RSI was at 42, also neutral, down from 52 at the start of the day (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 11:00 AM ET, suggesting potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). ETH's MACD also indicated a bearish crossover at the same time (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken was 500 million in the last hour, up 30% from the previous hour's volume of 385 million (Kraken, 2025). The on-chain metric of active addresses for BTC increased to 1.2 million, up 10% from 1.1 million the previous day, indicating increased market participation (Glassnode, 2025). The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and cryptocurrencies remains strong, with the potential for a circuit breaker triggering further volatility in the crypto market.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments reported on April 3, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the Nasdaq 100's performance could indirectly affect AI-related tokens. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) was trading at $0.85, down 1.5% from its opening price of $0.86 at 9:00 AM ET (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX was 50 million in the last 24 hours, a 5% increase from the previous day's volume of 47.6 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and BTC over the past month was 0.65, indicating a moderate correlation (CryptoQuant, 2025). While there are no direct AI developments influencing the market, the overall market sentiment driven by the Nasdaq 100's performance could lead to increased volatility in AI-related tokens, presenting potential trading opportunities for investors monitoring the AI-crypto crossover.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.