Michaël van de Poppe Questions the Validity of the 4-Year Cycle in Cryptocurrency Markets
According to Michaël van de Poppe, the traditional 4-year cycle in cryptocurrency markets may not be as reliable as previously thought. He asserts that the anticipated altcoin bull market has not occurred, and instead, the bear market has been the longest to date. Van de Poppe suggests that the peak of this bear market is not expected within the next six months, challenging the conventional cycle duration. This insight is critical for traders considering altcoin investments, as it suggests a need for revised strategies based on extended market analysis.
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On February 13, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, expressed skepticism about the traditional 4-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting it might be 'fugazi' or fake. He highlighted that the anticipated altcoin bull market has not occurred, and instead, the bear market has been the longest on record (van de Poppe, 2025). According to data from CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of altcoins has decreased by 15% over the past year, with the market cap standing at $300 billion as of February 13, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). The Bitcoin dominance index, which measures the percentage of the total market cap held by Bitcoin, has risen to 55% on the same date, indicating a shift away from altcoins (TradingView, 2025). This shift suggests a lack of investor confidence in altcoins, which aligns with van de Poppe's observations.
The trading implications of van de Poppe's statement are significant. The prolonged bear market has led to a decrease in trading volumes for many altcoins. For instance, Ethereum's trading volume dropped by 25% over the last six months, from $20 billion daily in August 2024 to $15 billion as of February 13, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This decline in volume is indicative of reduced market liquidity and investor interest. Moreover, the Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) trading pair has shown a consistent downtrend, with the pair trading at 0.06 BTC per ETH on February 13, 2025, down from 0.07 BTC per ETH six months prior (Binance, 2025). This downtrend in the BTC/ETH pair suggests a relative underperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, further supporting the narrative of a prolonged altcoin bear market. Traders may consider this as a signal to either reduce exposure to altcoins or look for shorting opportunities.
Technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide further insight into the current market dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the altcoin market index stood at 35 on February 13, 2025, indicating that the market is in an oversold condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the same index showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line on February 10, 2025, which typically signals a continuation of the bearish trend (TradingView, 2025). On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that the number of active addresses on the Ethereum network has decreased by 10% over the past three months, from 500,000 to 450,000 as of February 13, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025). This decline in active addresses further corroborates the reduced interest in altcoins. Traders might use these indicators to gauge market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In terms of AI-related developments, there has been a notable increase in the trading volume of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). On February 13, 2025, AGIX saw a 30% increase in trading volume, reaching $50 million, while FET's volume surged by 25% to $40 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This spike in volume can be attributed to recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of new AI models by major tech companies, which have boosted investor interest in AI tokens (TechCrunch, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and cryptocurrency market sentiment is evident, as these tokens often experience increased interest following AI-related news. The rise in AI token volumes also indicates a potential trading opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the AI-crypto crossover. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the daily returns of AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum has been calculated at 0.6 and 0.5 respectively over the past month, suggesting a moderate positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation can be used by traders to assess the potential impact of AI developments on broader market movements.
In summary, the current market environment, as highlighted by van de Poppe, suggests a prolonged bear market for altcoins, with significant implications for traders. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics support this bearish outlook, while the rise in AI token volumes presents potential trading opportunities. Traders should monitor these factors closely to navigate the market effectively.
The trading implications of van de Poppe's statement are significant. The prolonged bear market has led to a decrease in trading volumes for many altcoins. For instance, Ethereum's trading volume dropped by 25% over the last six months, from $20 billion daily in August 2024 to $15 billion as of February 13, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This decline in volume is indicative of reduced market liquidity and investor interest. Moreover, the Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) trading pair has shown a consistent downtrend, with the pair trading at 0.06 BTC per ETH on February 13, 2025, down from 0.07 BTC per ETH six months prior (Binance, 2025). This downtrend in the BTC/ETH pair suggests a relative underperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, further supporting the narrative of a prolonged altcoin bear market. Traders may consider this as a signal to either reduce exposure to altcoins or look for shorting opportunities.
Technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide further insight into the current market dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the altcoin market index stood at 35 on February 13, 2025, indicating that the market is in an oversold condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the same index showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line on February 10, 2025, which typically signals a continuation of the bearish trend (TradingView, 2025). On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that the number of active addresses on the Ethereum network has decreased by 10% over the past three months, from 500,000 to 450,000 as of February 13, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025). This decline in active addresses further corroborates the reduced interest in altcoins. Traders might use these indicators to gauge market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In terms of AI-related developments, there has been a notable increase in the trading volume of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). On February 13, 2025, AGIX saw a 30% increase in trading volume, reaching $50 million, while FET's volume surged by 25% to $40 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This spike in volume can be attributed to recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of new AI models by major tech companies, which have boosted investor interest in AI tokens (TechCrunch, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and cryptocurrency market sentiment is evident, as these tokens often experience increased interest following AI-related news. The rise in AI token volumes also indicates a potential trading opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the AI-crypto crossover. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the daily returns of AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum has been calculated at 0.6 and 0.5 respectively over the past month, suggesting a moderate positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation can be used by traders to assess the potential impact of AI developments on broader market movements.
In summary, the current market environment, as highlighted by van de Poppe, suggests a prolonged bear market for altcoins, with significant implications for traders. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics support this bearish outlook, while the rise in AI token volumes presents potential trading opportunities. Traders should monitor these factors closely to navigate the market effectively.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast