On February 15, 2025, Kook Capital LLC, a notable financial analytics firm, announced via Twitter that the memecoin supercycle appears to be waning, based on their analysis of app traffic data. The report highlighted that significant parabolic bursts in traffic were observed around the launches of high-profile memecoins such as $TRUMP and $CAR. Specifically, the traffic for $TRUMP surged by 300% on January 25, 2025, following its launch, and $CAR experienced a 250% increase in traffic on February 1, 2025 (KookCapitalLLC, 2025). However, despite these initial spikes, the data indicated that new users experienced significant losses, leading to a lack of return visits. This pattern suggests a decline in sustained interest in memecoins, with app traffic dropping by 60% from its peak levels by February 10, 2025 (KookCapitalLLC, 2025). This decline is a critical indicator of the memecoin market's health, signaling potential shifts in investor behavior and market dynamics.

The trading implications of this trend are significant for traders and investors focusing on memecoins. As of February 15, 2025, the trading volume for $TRUMP on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase has decreased by 75% from its peak on January 25, 2025, reflecting diminished interest (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Similarly, $CAR's trading volume on Uniswap saw a 65% decline from its peak on February 1, 2025 (Uniswap Analytics, 2025). These volume reductions suggest that the initial hype around these memecoins is fading, potentially leading to further price drops. Traders should consider exiting positions in these memecoins, as the data indicates a bearish outlook. Additionally, the average holding period for these tokens has decreased from 48 hours to 24 hours between January 25 and February 15, 2025, indicating a shift towards short-term trading strategies (Glassnode, 2025).

Technical indicators further support the bearish outlook for memecoins. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $TRUMP on February 15, 2025, was measured at 35, indicating an oversold condition but also reflecting a lack of buying pressure (TradingView, 2025). For $CAR, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on February 10, 2025, with the MACD line moving below the signal line, signaling potential further declines (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics also indicate a decrease in active addresses for both $TRUMP and $CAR, dropping by 50% and 45%, respectively, since their peak launch dates (CryptoQuant, 2025). This reduction in active addresses is a clear sign of waning interest and participation in these memecoins.

In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on memecoins from recent AI news. However, the overall sentiment in the crypto market, influenced by AI advancements, might indirectly affect memecoin trading volumes. For instance, the announcement of a new AI-driven trading platform on February 12, 2025, led to a 10% increase in trading volumes for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but no significant impact was observed on memecoins (CoinDesk, 2025). This suggests that while AI developments can influence broader market sentiment, their direct impact on niche markets like memecoins remains limited. Traders should monitor AI-related news for potential indirect effects on market sentiment and trading volumes, but as of now, no clear correlation exists between AI developments and memecoin performance.