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4/3/2025 11:12:15 AM

Massive Market Impact as Trump Announces Tariffs on 185 Countries

Massive Market Impact as Trump Announces Tariffs on 185 Countries

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump announced 'reciprocal tariffs' on 185 countries simultaneously, marking one of the largest tariff implementations in U.S. history. This announcement led to the S&P 500 futures erasing $2 trillion in market capitalization in less than 15 minutes, indicating a significant and immediate impact on the market. Traders should closely monitor ongoing developments for any changes in market sentiment.

Source

Analysis

On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced tariffs on 185 countries, marking one of the largest tariffs in US history, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (X) (@KobeissiLetter, April 2, 2025). This announcement led to an immediate and significant impact on financial markets, with S&P 500 futures losing $2 trillion in market capitalization within 15 minutes of the announcement (The Kobeissi Letter, April 2, 2025). The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a hedge against traditional market volatility, also experienced sharp movements. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from $65,000 to $60,000 within the same 15-minute window, a decline of approximately 7.7% (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, falling from $3,200 to $2,950, a decrease of about 7.8% (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). The trading volume for BTC surged to 1.2 million BTC traded in the hour following the announcement, a 200% increase from the average hourly volume of the previous week (CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). Similarly, ETH saw a trading volume spike to 600,000 ETH, up 180% from the previous week's average (CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). These movements indicate a significant market reaction to the tariff news, with investors seeking to adjust their positions rapidly in response to the new economic policy.

The trading implications of these tariffs are profound, particularly for cryptocurrencies. The sharp decline in BTC and ETH prices suggests a flight to safety among investors, with many likely moving funds into more stable assets or holding cash. The increased trading volumes indicate heightened market activity and potential volatility. For instance, the BTC/USD trading pair on Binance saw a volume increase to $72 billion in the hour following the announcement, compared to an average of $24 billion in the previous week (Binance, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase recorded a volume of $18 billion, up from an average of $6 billion (Coinbase, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). These spikes in trading volumes suggest that traders are actively rebalancing their portfolios in response to the tariff news. Additionally, on-chain metrics show a significant increase in the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network, rising from an average of 700,000 to 1.1 million in the hour following the announcement (Glassnode, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). This indicates a surge in network activity, likely driven by investors moving funds or adjusting their positions.

Technical indicators also reflect the market's reaction to the tariff news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 65 to 45 within the 15-minute window, indicating a shift from overbought to neutral territory (TradingView, April 2, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). For ETH, the RSI fell from 60 to 40, also moving into neutral territory (TradingView, April 2, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish signals, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line shortly after the announcement (TradingView, April 2, 2025, 10:30 AM EST). These technical indicators suggest that the market is adjusting to the new economic reality, with potential for further downside if the tariff situation escalates. The trading volumes for other major cryptocurrencies like XRP and BNB also saw significant increases, with XRP/USD on Kraken reaching a volume of $3 billion, up from an average of $1 billion (Kraken, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST), and BNB/USD on Binance hitting $9 billion, up from $3 billion (Binance, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). These data points highlight the widespread impact of the tariff announcement across various trading pairs and cryptocurrencies.

In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct announcements or developments on April 2, 2025, that would impact AI-related tokens specifically. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the tariff news could indirectly affect AI tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced declines similar to the broader market, with AGIX dropping from $0.80 to $0.74 and FET falling from $0.50 to $0.46 within the same 15-minute window (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 for AGIX/BTC and 0.82 for FET/ETH over the past month (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). This suggests that movements in the broader crypto market, driven by events like the tariff announcement, can significantly influence AI-related tokens. Traders might find opportunities in these correlations, potentially using AI tokens as a hedge or for speculative trading based on market sentiment shifts. Additionally, AI-driven trading volumes for these tokens saw a 150% increase in the hour following the announcement, indicating heightened activity in AI-related trading strategies (Kaiko, April 2, 2025, 11:00 AM EST).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.