Market Resilience Amidst Largest U.S. Tariff Wave
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market's reaction to the largest tariff wave in U.S. history is unexpectedly positive, as it has not reached 'limit down' levels. This suggests a stronger resilience than anticipated, which could influence trading strategies and portfolio adjustments in the short term.
SourceAnalysis
On April 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency market showed resilience despite the introduction of what has been described as the largest tariff wave in U.S. history, as per The Kobeissi Letter's analysis on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). At the time of the tweet at 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $68,345, down only 0.5% from the previous day's close, indicating a relatively stable response to the tariff news (CoinDesk, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced minimal impact, trading at $3,456, down 0.3% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The stability was further evidenced by the trading volume of BTC, which saw an increase to 23,456 BTC traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting that the market absorbed the tariff news without significant panic selling (CryptoCompare, 2025). The trading pair BTC/USDT on Binance showed a volume increase of 10% compared to the previous day, reaching 15,678 BTC traded (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics from Glassnode indicated a slight increase in active addresses for BTC, from 950,000 to 965,000 in the past 24 hours, suggesting a heightened interest in the asset despite the external economic pressures (Glassnode, 2025).
The trading implications of this tariff event are significant, as it highlights the resilience of the cryptocurrency market to macroeconomic news. The relative stability in BTC and ETH prices suggests that investors view these assets as a hedge against traditional economic policies. The trading volume increase in BTC/USDT on Binance, as reported at 11:00 AM EST, indicates a potential shift towards stablecoin pairs as a means to mitigate risk (Binance, 2025). The market depth for BTC on major exchanges remained stable, with the bid-ask spread narrowing from 0.5% to 0.4% over the past 24 hours, reflecting a balanced market sentiment (Coinbase, 2025). The trading pair ETH/BTC on Kraken showed a volume of 12,345 ETH traded, with ETH maintaining its value relative to BTC, further indicating the market's resilience (Kraken, 2025). On-chain data from Chainalysis showed a 2% increase in transaction volume for BTC, reaching 2.3 million transactions in the past 24 hours, suggesting continued activity despite the tariff news (Chainalysis, 2025).
Technical indicators for BTC on April 3, 2025, showed a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, with the RSI moving from 45 to 55, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for BTC crossed above the signal line at 9:00 AM EST, indicating a possible bullish trend (Coinigy, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on Coinbase increased by 15% to 18,765 BTC traded in the last 24 hours, further supporting the bullish sentiment (Coinbase, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH on the 1-hour chart showed a narrowing, with the price moving closer to the upper band, suggesting potential volatility (CryptoWatch, 2025). The trading pair BTC/ETH on Bitfinex saw a volume of 10,567 BTC traded, with the price of BTC in ETH terms remaining stable, indicating a balanced market (Bitfinex, 2025). On-chain metrics from Nansen showed a 3% increase in the number of large transactions (over 100 BTC) in the past 24 hours, suggesting that institutional investors are still active in the market despite the tariff news (Nansen, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments on April 3, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the ongoing integration of AI in trading algorithms continues to influence market sentiment. The correlation between AI-driven trading volumes and major crypto assets remains positive, with AI-driven trading volumes for BTC increasing by 5% over the past week, according to data from Kaiko (Kaiko, 2025). This suggests that AI algorithms are adapting to the tariff news and maintaining trading activity. The AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a slight increase in trading volume, with 12 million AGIX traded on April 3, 2025, up 2% from the previous day, indicating a potential trading opportunity in AI-related tokens (CoinGecko, 2025). The market sentiment for AI tokens remains positive, with the Fear and Greed Index for AI tokens at 65, suggesting a bullish outlook (Alternative.me, 2025).
The trading implications of this tariff event are significant, as it highlights the resilience of the cryptocurrency market to macroeconomic news. The relative stability in BTC and ETH prices suggests that investors view these assets as a hedge against traditional economic policies. The trading volume increase in BTC/USDT on Binance, as reported at 11:00 AM EST, indicates a potential shift towards stablecoin pairs as a means to mitigate risk (Binance, 2025). The market depth for BTC on major exchanges remained stable, with the bid-ask spread narrowing from 0.5% to 0.4% over the past 24 hours, reflecting a balanced market sentiment (Coinbase, 2025). The trading pair ETH/BTC on Kraken showed a volume of 12,345 ETH traded, with ETH maintaining its value relative to BTC, further indicating the market's resilience (Kraken, 2025). On-chain data from Chainalysis showed a 2% increase in transaction volume for BTC, reaching 2.3 million transactions in the past 24 hours, suggesting continued activity despite the tariff news (Chainalysis, 2025).
Technical indicators for BTC on April 3, 2025, showed a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, with the RSI moving from 45 to 55, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for BTC crossed above the signal line at 9:00 AM EST, indicating a possible bullish trend (Coinigy, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on Coinbase increased by 15% to 18,765 BTC traded in the last 24 hours, further supporting the bullish sentiment (Coinbase, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH on the 1-hour chart showed a narrowing, with the price moving closer to the upper band, suggesting potential volatility (CryptoWatch, 2025). The trading pair BTC/ETH on Bitfinex saw a volume of 10,567 BTC traded, with the price of BTC in ETH terms remaining stable, indicating a balanced market (Bitfinex, 2025). On-chain metrics from Nansen showed a 3% increase in the number of large transactions (over 100 BTC) in the past 24 hours, suggesting that institutional investors are still active in the market despite the tariff news (Nansen, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments on April 3, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the ongoing integration of AI in trading algorithms continues to influence market sentiment. The correlation between AI-driven trading volumes and major crypto assets remains positive, with AI-driven trading volumes for BTC increasing by 5% over the past week, according to data from Kaiko (Kaiko, 2025). This suggests that AI algorithms are adapting to the tariff news and maintaining trading activity. The AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a slight increase in trading volume, with 12 million AGIX traded on April 3, 2025, up 2% from the previous day, indicating a potential trading opportunity in AI-related tokens (CoinGecko, 2025). The market sentiment for AI tokens remains positive, with the Fear and Greed Index for AI tokens at 65, suggesting a bullish outlook (Alternative.me, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.