According to The Kobeissi Letter, global central banks added a net 12 tonnes of gold in April 2025, following 17 tonnes in March, marking the 23rd consecutive month of net gold purchases. Leading buyers included the National Bank of Poland, the Czech National Bank, the People's Bank of China, and the Central Bank of Turkey (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 5, 2025). This sustained accumulation signals persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. For crypto traders, the continued gold buying trend may indicate lingering risk aversion and could influence capital flows into digital assets as investors seek alternatives to traditional stores of value.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 1-year US credit default swaps (CDS) have climbed to 52 basis points, marking levels close to the highest seen since 2023. Excluding the 2023 debt ceiling crisis, this is the most expensive US default insurance in 12 years, reflecting heightened concerns over US government credit risk (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 31, 2025). For crypto traders, increased US default risk typically drives demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins as investors hedge against traditional market instability. This trend could boost crypto market volumes and volatility in the near term as macro uncertainty rises.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) consistently underestimates long-term US federal debt increases, with 2001 projections missing the mark by $9.5 trillion by 2011 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 29, 2025). This persistent underestimation highlights ongoing fiscal uncertainty, which has historically driven increased demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins as investors seek hedges against US dollar devaluation. Traders should monitor macroeconomic signals and debt policy developments, as continued debt growth can fuel volatility and upward momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has risen to 43% following President Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs. This increased risk of economic slowdown is expected to heighten volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, as traders may seek safe-haven alternatives or adjust positions in response to macroeconomic uncertainty (Source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter, Kalshi). Crypto traders should monitor cross-asset flows and US economic data closely for potential price swings.

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), US Treasury yields are not moving significantly, prompting discussions about the possible reintroduction of tariffs as a policy tool. Historically, tariff announcements have sparked risk-off sentiment, leading to increased volatility in both equity and cryptocurrency markets as traders seek safe-haven assets or hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Stock Talk Twitter, May 23, 2025). Crypto traders should closely monitor any official tariff policy signals, as past events have correlated with Bitcoin and altcoin price swings.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since 1971, the US Dollar has lost 98.94% of its value against gold and the British Pound has declined by 99.42%, highlighting a dramatic erosion in the purchasing power of major fiat currencies (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 22, 2025). This long-term devaluation intensifies the appeal of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are often positioned as hedges against fiat currency depreciation. For crypto traders, these statistics reinforce the narrative of digital assets as alternative stores of value, especially amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since 1971, the US Dollar has lost 98.94% of its value against gold, while the British Pound has dropped by 99.42% during the same period (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 22, 2025). This long-term trend highlights significant fiat currency depreciation, underscoring gold's status as a store of value. For crypto traders, this persistent decline in fiat value strengthens the narrative for digital assets like Bitcoin as alternative hedges against currency debasement. Monitoring fiat-to-gold performance can help traders anticipate shifts in demand for cryptocurrencies, especially during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to @godbole17, the recent rise in long-end bond yields across advanced economies is not due to increased growth or inflation expectations, but rather reflects market doubts about fiscal sustainability. This environment increases the likelihood of large-scale Yield Curve Control (YCC) measures in the future. Traders should note that such macro uncertainty typically drives inflows into safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin (BTC), as evidenced by previous market cycles. Monitoring yield movements and fiscal policy announcements is crucial for anticipating volatility and potential upward momentum in gold and BTC prices (Source: Twitter/@godbole17, May 18, 2025).

According to Brad Freeman (@StockMarketNerd), optimism is rising for a potential U.S.-China trade deal this summer following tonight's news release (source: Twitter, May 7, 2025). This renewed confidence in global economic relations is leading to increased risk appetite among traders, which is historically linked to positive momentum in the cryptocurrency market. Investors are closely monitoring developments, as a successful trade agreement could fuel further gains in major crypto assets by reducing macroeconomic uncertainty and stimulating capital flows into digital assets.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is currently navigating between macro uncertainty and a decline in US regulatory uncertainty. He suggests that once the macro uncertainty, particularly regarding a US recession, is fully anticipated or reflected, Bitcoin could experience a significant rally.