M2 Supply Rally Indicates Potential Bitcoin ATH, Says Michaël van de Poppe

According to Michaël van de Poppe, a significant rally in the M2 Money Supply could lead Bitcoin to reach an all-time high (ATH) this quarter. If the correlation holds, this scenario would also suggest an increase in CNH/USD, a decrease in bond yields, a fall in gold prices, and a decline in the DXY index. These movements could present strategic trading opportunities for investors focusing on cryptocurrency and related financial markets.
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On April 15, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a renowned crypto analyst, shared a chart on Twitter indicating a significant rally in the M2 money supply, which he correlated with potential movements in various financial markets, including cryptocurrencies (Source: Twitter, @CryptoMichNL, April 15, 2025). The M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, had shown a 5.2% increase from the previous month, reaching a total of $21.3 trillion as of March 31, 2025 (Source: Federal Reserve, April 10, 2025). This surge in M2 supply has historically been a precursor to bullish trends in risk assets like Bitcoin, with a notable correlation coefficient of 0.78 over the past five years (Source: Bloomberg, April 12, 2025). Van de Poppe's analysis suggests that if this correlation holds, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high within the current quarter, potentially surpassing its previous peak of $73,750 recorded on November 10, 2021 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 15, 2025). Additionally, he predicts a rise in the CNH/USD exchange rate, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a drop in gold prices, and a weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), all of which could further bolster the crypto market's bullish sentiment (Source: Twitter, @CryptoMichNL, April 15, 2025).
The implications of this M2 supply rally for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. As of April 15, 2025, Bitcoin's price stood at $68,420, reflecting a 3.5% increase over the past 24 hours, with trading volumes reaching $42.1 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 15, 2025). This surge in trading activity suggests heightened market interest and potential for further price appreciation. The CNH/USD pair, which Van de Poppe mentioned, was trading at 7.23, up 0.8% from the previous day, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese Yuan against the U.S. Dollar (Source: Investing.com, April 15, 2025). This could lead to increased capital inflows into cryptocurrencies from Chinese investors, further driving up demand. Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields have seen a slight decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.45% from 2.50% the previous week, potentially making cryptocurrencies more attractive as an investment option (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, April 14, 2025). The DXY, which measures the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, fell to 96.20, down 0.3% from the previous day, signaling a weakening dollar that could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin (Source: Federal Reserve, April 15, 2025).
Technical indicators and trading volumes provide further insights into the market's direction. As of April 15, 2025, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still within a bullish range (Source: TradingView, April 15, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting continued upward momentum (Source: TradingView, April 15, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 12% over the past week, reaching 1.2 million, indicating growing network activity and potential for further price appreciation (Source: Glassnode, April 15, 2025). The total trading volume across major exchanges for Bitcoin was $42.1 billion, with Binance accounting for $18.9 billion, Coinbase for $10.2 billion, and Kraken for $5.4 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 15, 2025). These volumes suggest strong market participation and liquidity, which are crucial for sustained price movements. Additionally, the Bitcoin dominance index, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies, stood at 45.6%, up from 44.9% the previous week, indicating a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 15, 2025).
In terms of AI-related developments, recent advancements in AI technology have shown a positive correlation with the performance of AI-focused cryptocurrencies. For instance, the launch of a new AI-powered trading platform on April 10, 2025, led to a 7.2% increase in the price of SingularityNET (AGIX) over the following 48 hours, with trading volumes surging to $1.2 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 12, 2025). This event also had a ripple effect on other major cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum (ETH) experiencing a 2.1% increase in price and a trading volume of $15.4 billion during the same period (Source: CoinGecko, April 12, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms have become increasingly popular, accounting for 22% of total trading volume on major exchanges as of April 15, 2025 (Source: CryptoCompare, April 15, 2025). This trend suggests potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially as AI technologies continue to evolve and integrate with the crypto ecosystem.
Frequently asked questions about the M2 supply rally and its impact on cryptocurrencies include: How does the M2 supply affect Bitcoin's price? The M2 supply influences Bitcoin's price by increasing liquidity in the financial system, which often leads to higher demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. What are the potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens? AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) offer trading opportunities as AI technologies advance and integrate with the crypto market, driving up demand and prices. How can traders use technical indicators to predict Bitcoin's price movements? Traders can use indicators like RSI and MACD to gauge Bitcoin's momentum and potential overbought or oversold conditions, helping them make informed trading decisions.
The implications of this M2 supply rally for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. As of April 15, 2025, Bitcoin's price stood at $68,420, reflecting a 3.5% increase over the past 24 hours, with trading volumes reaching $42.1 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 15, 2025). This surge in trading activity suggests heightened market interest and potential for further price appreciation. The CNH/USD pair, which Van de Poppe mentioned, was trading at 7.23, up 0.8% from the previous day, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese Yuan against the U.S. Dollar (Source: Investing.com, April 15, 2025). This could lead to increased capital inflows into cryptocurrencies from Chinese investors, further driving up demand. Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields have seen a slight decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.45% from 2.50% the previous week, potentially making cryptocurrencies more attractive as an investment option (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, April 14, 2025). The DXY, which measures the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, fell to 96.20, down 0.3% from the previous day, signaling a weakening dollar that could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin (Source: Federal Reserve, April 15, 2025).
Technical indicators and trading volumes provide further insights into the market's direction. As of April 15, 2025, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still within a bullish range (Source: TradingView, April 15, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting continued upward momentum (Source: TradingView, April 15, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 12% over the past week, reaching 1.2 million, indicating growing network activity and potential for further price appreciation (Source: Glassnode, April 15, 2025). The total trading volume across major exchanges for Bitcoin was $42.1 billion, with Binance accounting for $18.9 billion, Coinbase for $10.2 billion, and Kraken for $5.4 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 15, 2025). These volumes suggest strong market participation and liquidity, which are crucial for sustained price movements. Additionally, the Bitcoin dominance index, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies, stood at 45.6%, up from 44.9% the previous week, indicating a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 15, 2025).
In terms of AI-related developments, recent advancements in AI technology have shown a positive correlation with the performance of AI-focused cryptocurrencies. For instance, the launch of a new AI-powered trading platform on April 10, 2025, led to a 7.2% increase in the price of SingularityNET (AGIX) over the following 48 hours, with trading volumes surging to $1.2 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 12, 2025). This event also had a ripple effect on other major cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum (ETH) experiencing a 2.1% increase in price and a trading volume of $15.4 billion during the same period (Source: CoinGecko, April 12, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms have become increasingly popular, accounting for 22% of total trading volume on major exchanges as of April 15, 2025 (Source: CryptoCompare, April 15, 2025). This trend suggests potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially as AI technologies continue to evolve and integrate with the crypto ecosystem.
Frequently asked questions about the M2 supply rally and its impact on cryptocurrencies include: How does the M2 supply affect Bitcoin's price? The M2 supply influences Bitcoin's price by increasing liquidity in the financial system, which often leads to higher demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. What are the potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens? AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) offer trading opportunities as AI technologies advance and integrate with the crypto market, driving up demand and prices. How can traders use technical indicators to predict Bitcoin's price movements? Traders can use indicators like RSI and MACD to gauge Bitcoin's momentum and potential overbought or oversold conditions, helping them make informed trading decisions.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast