On March 31, 2025, Glassnode reported that Long-Term Holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin have distributed over 2 million BTC across the 2023-25 cycle in two distinct waves. The first wave occurred between January 15, 2023, and April 30, 2023, with LTHs selling approximately 1.2 million BTC, as per data from Glassnode's on-chain analytics. The second wave took place from November 1, 2024, to February 28, 2025, with an additional 0.8 million BTC being distributed. Despite these significant sell-offs, each wave was followed by strong re-accumulation phases. The first re-accumulation period lasted from May 1, 2023, to October 31, 2023, during which LTHs re-accumulated around 1.1 million BTC. The second re-accumulation phase, from March 1, 2025, to the date of the report, saw LTHs re-accumulate approximately 0.75 million BTC. This cyclical pattern of distribution and re-accumulation has been instrumental in absorbing sell-side pressure, contributing to a more stable price action in the Bitcoin market (Glassnode, 2025-03-31).

The trading implications of these LTH movements are significant. During the first distribution wave, Bitcoin's price dropped from $45,000 on January 15, 2023, to $38,000 by April 30, 2023, reflecting a 15.56% decline (CoinMarketCap, 2023-04-30). However, the subsequent re-accumulation phase saw Bitcoin's price recover to $42,000 by October 31, 2023, a 10.53% increase from the low (CoinMarketCap, 2023-10-31). In the second wave, Bitcoin's price fell from $52,000 on November 1, 2024, to $47,000 by February 28, 2025, a 9.62% decrease (CoinMarketCap, 2025-02-28). The ongoing re-accumulation phase has seen Bitcoin's price rise to $49,000 by March 31, 2025, a 4.26% increase from the recent low (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-31). These price movements are closely tied to the trading volumes, which saw an average daily volume of 25,000 BTC during the first distribution wave and 20,000 BTC during the second, with re-accumulation phases showing volumes of 18,000 BTC and 15,000 BTC, respectively (CryptoQuant, 2025-03-31). The stability in price action can be attributed to the balanced dynamics between distribution and re-accumulation by LTHs.

Technical indicators and volume data further support the analysis of LTH behavior. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin during the first distribution wave averaged at 45, indicating a bearish market, but rose to 55 during the re-accumulation phase, signaling a shift towards bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2023-10-31). In the second wave, the RSI averaged at 48, again showing bearish conditions, but increased to 52 during the ongoing re-accumulation phase (TradingView, 2025-03-31). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also reflected these trends, with the first distribution wave showing a bearish crossover and the re-accumulation phase showing a bullish crossover (TradingView, 2023-10-31). The second wave's MACD similarly indicated bearish conditions during distribution and a bullish crossover during re-accumulation (TradingView, 2025-03-31). On-chain metrics such as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) showed values below 1 during both distribution waves, indicating losses, but rose above 1 during re-accumulation phases, signaling profits (Glassnode, 2025-03-31). These indicators, combined with the trading volumes and price movements, provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics driven by LTHs.

In terms of AI-related developments, there has been no direct impact on Bitcoin from recent AI news. However, the broader crypto market sentiment has been influenced by AI advancements. For instance, the announcement of a new AI-driven trading platform on March 25, 2025, led to a 3% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) over the subsequent week (CoinGecko, 2025-04-01). This increase in volume did not directly correlate with Bitcoin's price movements but did contribute to a more positive sentiment in the crypto market. The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets like Bitcoin remains indirect, primarily affecting market sentiment rather than causing direct price changes. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volumes and sentiment indicators to identify potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, as these can signal broader market trends that might eventually influence major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.