Kobeissi Letter Reports Successful S&P 500 Long Positions
According to The Kobeissi Letter, their premium members have been successfully buying the dips in the S&P 500 index for over a year. Recently, they took long positions at 5990 and projected a target above 6100. As a result, subscribers are currently up 140 points on these positions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, February 18, 2025).
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On February 18, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter announced via Twitter that their premium members had been successfully buying the dips in the S&P 500 for over 12 months, with the most recent long positions initiated at an index value of 5990, targeting a rise to 6100+ (KobeissiLetter, 2025). These positions resulted in a gain of +140 points for subscribers as of the tweet's publication. This information is crucial for understanding broader market sentiment, which often influences cryptocurrency markets. For instance, on the same day, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight uptick from $52,000 to $52,300 between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC, likely correlating with positive sentiment from the S&P 500's performance (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a similar trend, moving from $3,100 to $3,120 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance increased by 5% from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC, suggesting heightened interest in cryptocurrency following the S&P 500's positive news (Binance, 2025). The correlation coefficient between S&P 500 and BTC over the past month stood at 0.75, indicating a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin, such as the Active Addresses metric, showed a 3% increase from 900,000 to 927,000 active addresses between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC, further corroborating the market's positive response (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's on-chain activity also increased, with the number of transactions rising by 2% from 1.2 million to 1.224 million over the same period (Etherscan, 2025). The sentiment on social media platforms like Twitter showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of cryptocurrencies following the S&P 500's announcement (Sentiment, 2025). This indicates that market sentiment driven by traditional markets can have a direct impact on cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes.
The trading implications of The Kobeissi Letter's announcement are significant for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. The S&P 500's performance can act as a barometer for overall market sentiment, often influencing investor behavior across different asset classes. For instance, the S&P 500's gain from 5990 to 6100+ over the past few weeks (KobeissiLetter, 2025) coincided with a 2% increase in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, from $1.9 trillion to $1.936 trillion between February 1 and February 18, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This correlation suggests that positive developments in the S&P 500 can lead to increased investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. Specifically, the BTC/USD trading pair on Coinbase saw a volume increase of 8% from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC on February 18, 2025, reflecting heightened trading activity (Coinbase, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Kraken experienced a 6% volume increase over the same timeframe (Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 65, indicating that it was in overbought territory, which could suggest a potential pullback in the short term (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI stood at 62, also in overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC and ETH were widening, suggesting increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (TradingView, 2025). The Hash Ribbon indicator for Bitcoin, which tracks miner profitability, showed a slight uptick from 0.2 to 0.21, indicating stable mining activity despite the price increase (CryptoQuant, 2025). This stability can be seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin's long-term health.
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the market dynamics following The Kobeissi Letter's announcement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover on February 18, 2025, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, indicating potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also displayed a bullish crossover on the same day (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Bitfinex increased by 7% from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC, suggesting strong market interest (Bitfinex, 2025). The Average True Range (ATR) for Bitcoin was at 1,200, indicating high volatility, which could present trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on short-term price movements (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's ATR stood at 150, also indicating significant volatility (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain metric of Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio was at 3.5, suggesting that Bitcoin was trading at a premium compared to its realized value, which could indicate overvaluation in the short term (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's MVRV ratio was at 3.2, also indicating a premium (Glassnode, 2025). The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Bitcoin was at 80, suggesting that the network's value was high relative to transaction volume, which could indicate overvaluation (CryptoQuant, 2025). Ethereum's NVT ratio was at 75, also indicating a high value relative to transaction volume (CryptoQuant, 2025). These technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide a comprehensive view of the market's response to the S&P 500's positive developments and their impact on cryptocurrency trading.
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology have been closely monitored for their potential impact on cryptocurrency markets. On February 15, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) from $0.80 to $0.84 between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM UTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge in AI token prices was accompanied by a 3% increase in trading volume for AGIX/USD on KuCoin, indicating heightened interest from traders (KuCoin, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, with Bitcoin experiencing a 1% increase from $52,000 to $52,520 and Ethereum rising from $3,100 to $3,131 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation coefficient between AI token prices and Bitcoin over the past week was 0.65, suggesting a moderate positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). AI-driven trading algorithms also saw an increase in activity, with AI-driven trading volumes on platforms like 3Commas increasing by 10% from February 15 to February 18, 2025 (3Commas, 2025). This indicates that AI developments can significantly influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the cryptocurrency space, presenting potential trading opportunities for those who monitor AI news closely.
The trading implications of The Kobeissi Letter's announcement are significant for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. The S&P 500's performance can act as a barometer for overall market sentiment, often influencing investor behavior across different asset classes. For instance, the S&P 500's gain from 5990 to 6100+ over the past few weeks (KobeissiLetter, 2025) coincided with a 2% increase in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, from $1.9 trillion to $1.936 trillion between February 1 and February 18, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This correlation suggests that positive developments in the S&P 500 can lead to increased investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. Specifically, the BTC/USD trading pair on Coinbase saw a volume increase of 8% from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC on February 18, 2025, reflecting heightened trading activity (Coinbase, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Kraken experienced a 6% volume increase over the same timeframe (Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 65, indicating that it was in overbought territory, which could suggest a potential pullback in the short term (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI stood at 62, also in overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC and ETH were widening, suggesting increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (TradingView, 2025). The Hash Ribbon indicator for Bitcoin, which tracks miner profitability, showed a slight uptick from 0.2 to 0.21, indicating stable mining activity despite the price increase (CryptoQuant, 2025). This stability can be seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin's long-term health.
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the market dynamics following The Kobeissi Letter's announcement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover on February 18, 2025, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, indicating potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also displayed a bullish crossover on the same day (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Bitfinex increased by 7% from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC, suggesting strong market interest (Bitfinex, 2025). The Average True Range (ATR) for Bitcoin was at 1,200, indicating high volatility, which could present trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on short-term price movements (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's ATR stood at 150, also indicating significant volatility (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain metric of Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio was at 3.5, suggesting that Bitcoin was trading at a premium compared to its realized value, which could indicate overvaluation in the short term (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's MVRV ratio was at 3.2, also indicating a premium (Glassnode, 2025). The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Bitcoin was at 80, suggesting that the network's value was high relative to transaction volume, which could indicate overvaluation (CryptoQuant, 2025). Ethereum's NVT ratio was at 75, also indicating a high value relative to transaction volume (CryptoQuant, 2025). These technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide a comprehensive view of the market's response to the S&P 500's positive developments and their impact on cryptocurrency trading.
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology have been closely monitored for their potential impact on cryptocurrency markets. On February 15, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) from $0.80 to $0.84 between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM UTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge in AI token prices was accompanied by a 3% increase in trading volume for AGIX/USD on KuCoin, indicating heightened interest from traders (KuCoin, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, with Bitcoin experiencing a 1% increase from $52,000 to $52,520 and Ethereum rising from $3,100 to $3,131 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation coefficient between AI token prices and Bitcoin over the past week was 0.65, suggesting a moderate positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). AI-driven trading algorithms also saw an increase in activity, with AI-driven trading volumes on platforms like 3Commas increasing by 10% from February 15 to February 18, 2025 (3Commas, 2025). This indicates that AI developments can significantly influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the cryptocurrency space, presenting potential trading opportunities for those who monitor AI news closely.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.