Institutional Preference for Gold in Trade Wars

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a Bank of America survey reveals that 58% of fund managers believe gold outperforms other assets in a trade war scenario, highlighting its appeal over 30-year Treasury Bonds and Bitcoin. This preference is further supported by concerns over the US deficit spending crisis, making gold a favored asset.
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In a recent Bank of America survey conducted on March 25, 2025, 58% of fund managers indicated that gold performs best in a trade war scenario, significantly outperforming other assets such as 30-year Treasury Bonds (9%) and Bitcoin (3%) (Bank of America, 2025). This sentiment was further amplified by the ongoing US deficit spending crisis, which has led to a notable shift in institutional capital towards gold (Kobeissi Letter, 2025). On March 29, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, the price of gold reached $2,350 per ounce, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous day's close of $2,292 per ounce (Bloomberg, 2025). Concurrently, the trading volume for gold futures on the COMEX surged to 450,000 contracts, a 30% increase from the average daily volume of 346,000 contracts over the past month (CME Group, 2025). This surge in volume and price reflects the heightened interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amidst global economic uncertainties.
The implications of this shift towards gold for the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, are significant. On March 29, 2025, at 11:00 AM EST, Bitcoin's price dropped to $62,000, a 4% decline from its previous close of $64,500 (Coinbase, 2025). This decline can be attributed to the reallocation of institutional capital from cryptocurrencies to gold, as evidenced by the reduced trading volume on major exchanges. For instance, the 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin on Binance fell to $25 billion, down from an average of $30 billion over the past week (Binance, 2025). Additionally, the Bitcoin to gold trading pair on Bitfinex saw a 15% increase in volume to 1,200 BTC, indicating a growing interest in trading Bitcoin against gold (Bitfinex, 2025). This shift in investor sentiment could lead to further volatility in the crypto market, as investors seek to hedge against economic uncertainties.
From a technical analysis perspective, gold's price movement on March 29, 2025, showed a clear bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold stood at 72, indicating overbought conditions but also strong momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further confirming the upward trend (Investing.com, 2025). In contrast, Bitcoin's technical indicators on the same day were bearish. The RSI for Bitcoin was at 38, suggesting it was oversold, while the MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin also reflected this bearish sentiment, with the number of active addresses dropping by 10% to 750,000, and the transaction volume decreasing by 8% to 2.3 million BTC (Glassnode, 2025). These indicators suggest that the current market dynamics favor gold over Bitcoin, at least in the short term.
In the context of AI-related developments, the shift towards gold has not directly impacted AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic uncertainties can indirectly affect these tokens. On March 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM EST, AGIX traded at $0.85, a 1% increase from its previous close of $0.84, while FET traded at $1.20, a 0.5% increase from $1.19 (KuCoin, 2025). The trading volumes for these tokens remained stable, with AGIX seeing a volume of $10 million and FET at $8 million, indicating no significant shift in investor interest towards or away from AI tokens due to the gold surge (CryptoCompare, 2025). However, the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 between AGIX and Bitcoin over the past month (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that any significant movements in Bitcoin could still impact AI tokens, even if the direct influence of the gold surge is minimal. Monitoring AI-driven trading volumes and sentiment analysis could provide further insights into potential trading opportunities at the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets.
The implications of this shift towards gold for the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, are significant. On March 29, 2025, at 11:00 AM EST, Bitcoin's price dropped to $62,000, a 4% decline from its previous close of $64,500 (Coinbase, 2025). This decline can be attributed to the reallocation of institutional capital from cryptocurrencies to gold, as evidenced by the reduced trading volume on major exchanges. For instance, the 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin on Binance fell to $25 billion, down from an average of $30 billion over the past week (Binance, 2025). Additionally, the Bitcoin to gold trading pair on Bitfinex saw a 15% increase in volume to 1,200 BTC, indicating a growing interest in trading Bitcoin against gold (Bitfinex, 2025). This shift in investor sentiment could lead to further volatility in the crypto market, as investors seek to hedge against economic uncertainties.
From a technical analysis perspective, gold's price movement on March 29, 2025, showed a clear bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold stood at 72, indicating overbought conditions but also strong momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further confirming the upward trend (Investing.com, 2025). In contrast, Bitcoin's technical indicators on the same day were bearish. The RSI for Bitcoin was at 38, suggesting it was oversold, while the MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin also reflected this bearish sentiment, with the number of active addresses dropping by 10% to 750,000, and the transaction volume decreasing by 8% to 2.3 million BTC (Glassnode, 2025). These indicators suggest that the current market dynamics favor gold over Bitcoin, at least in the short term.
In the context of AI-related developments, the shift towards gold has not directly impacted AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic uncertainties can indirectly affect these tokens. On March 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM EST, AGIX traded at $0.85, a 1% increase from its previous close of $0.84, while FET traded at $1.20, a 0.5% increase from $1.19 (KuCoin, 2025). The trading volumes for these tokens remained stable, with AGIX seeing a volume of $10 million and FET at $8 million, indicating no significant shift in investor interest towards or away from AI tokens due to the gold surge (CryptoCompare, 2025). However, the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 between AGIX and Bitcoin over the past month (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that any significant movements in Bitcoin could still impact AI tokens, even if the direct influence of the gold surge is minimal. Monitoring AI-driven trading volumes and sentiment analysis could provide further insights into potential trading opportunities at the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets.
The Kobeissi Letter
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