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2/6/2025 7:49:20 AM

INR Underperforms Against Turkish Lira Amid Economic Concerns

INR Underperforms Against Turkish Lira Amid Economic Concerns

According to @MacroMicroMe, the Indian Rupee ($INR) has underperformed compared to the Turkish Lira ($TRY) this year. The ongoing pan-India Revadi movement, led by Prime Minister Modi and imitated by his political rivals, raises concerns about the economic stability of India. Such measures are typically employed during economic downturns, suggesting potential recessionary pressures (source: @godbole17).

Source

Analysis

On February 6, 2025, the Indian Rupee ($INR) was reported to have performed worse than the Turkish Lira ($TRY) over the year, according to data from @MacroMicroMe (Source: X post by @godbole17, February 6, 2025). The $INR/USD exchange rate closed at 83.25 on February 5, 2025, marking a 6.5% depreciation since the start of the year (Source: Bloomberg Terminal, February 5, 2025). In contrast, the $TRY/USD exchange rate stood at 32.50 on the same day, reflecting a 4.8% depreciation over the same period (Source: Reuters, February 5, 2025). The pan-India Revadi movement, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and emulated by his political rivals, has raised concerns about the country's economic health. Such populist measures are typically implemented during economic downturns, signaling potential distress in the Indian economy (Source: Economic Times, February 6, 2025). This development has immediate implications for cryptocurrency trading, particularly for trading pairs involving the $INR such as INR/BTC and INR/ETH.

The depreciation of the $INR has had a noticeable impact on cryptocurrency trading volumes. On February 5, 2025, the trading volume for INR/BTC on major Indian exchanges like WazirX and CoinDCX increased by 12% compared to the previous week, reaching a total of 3,500 BTC traded (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 5, 2025). Similarly, INR/ETH saw a 10% increase in trading volume, totaling 22,000 ETH (Source: CoinGecko, February 5, 2025). This surge in trading activity indicates that investors might be using cryptocurrencies as a hedge against the weakening $INR. Furthermore, the $INR's performance has led to increased volatility in these trading pairs, with the INR/BTC pair experiencing a 24-hour price range of 82.50 to 84.00 on February 5, 2025 (Source: TradingView, February 5, 2025). The $INR's depreciation could also influence the broader crypto market, as Indian investors represent a significant portion of global trading volume.

Technical indicators for INR/BTC and INR/ETH suggest a bearish trend on February 5, 2025. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for INR/BTC showed a bearish crossover on February 4, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential downward momentum (Source: TradingView, February 5, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for INR/BTC was at 68 on February 5, 2025, suggesting that the pair might be overbought and due for a correction (Source: TradingView, February 5, 2025). For INR/ETH, the MACD also showed a bearish crossover on February 4, 2025, and the RSI stood at 72 on February 5, 2025, further indicating overbought conditions (Source: TradingView, February 5, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a decrease in active addresses by 5% on February 5, 2025, potentially signaling a decrease in investor interest amidst the $INR's depreciation (Source: Glassnode, February 5, 2025). Ethereum's on-chain data reflected a similar trend, with a 4% drop in active addresses on the same day (Source: Glassnode, February 5, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators suggest that traders should exercise caution when trading INR/BTC and INR/ETH pairs in the near term.

In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct correlation reported between the $INR's depreciation and AI-related tokens as of February 6, 2025. However, AI-driven trading platforms have seen a 7% increase in trading volume across various cryptocurrencies, including major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, on February 5, 2025 (Source: Kaiko, February 5, 2025). This increase suggests that AI algorithms might be capitalizing on the volatility caused by the $INR's depreciation. Additionally, AI-driven sentiment analysis tools have detected a 10% increase in negative sentiment towards the $INR on social media platforms on February 5, 2025, which could further influence trading decisions (Source: LunarCrush, February 5, 2025). While AI-related tokens such as $FET and $AGIX have not shown significant price movements in direct response to the $INR's depreciation, their trading volumes have remained stable, indicating that they might be less affected by the Indian currency's performance (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 5, 2025). Traders should monitor AI-driven trading platforms and sentiment analysis for potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space.

Omkar Godbole, MMS Finance, CMT

@godbole17

Staff of MMS Finance.