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3/29/2025 4:26:00 PM

Inflation Metrics Surpass Federal Reserve Targets Significantly

Inflation Metrics Surpass Federal Reserve Targets Significantly

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline and Core PCE inflation rates are now all above 3.0%, with the 1-month Core PCE inflation rate hitting a substantial 4.5%. This positions inflation 250 basis points above the Federal Reserve's long-run target, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market conditions.

Source

Analysis

On March 29, 2025, the Kobeissi Letter reported that the 1-month annualized Core PCE inflation rate had surged to 4.5%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's long-term target by 250 basis points (Kobeissi Letter, March 29, 2025). This spike in inflation, alongside 1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline and Core PCE inflation rates all exceeding 3.0%, has significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. The Atlanta Fed's projection of a -0.5% GDP growth further complicates the economic landscape, potentially driving investors towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation (Atlanta Fed, March 29, 2025). Specifically, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable price increase, rising from $65,000 to $67,500 within the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a rise, moving from $3,200 to $3,350 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). These movements suggest a flight to digital assets amid rising inflation concerns.

The trading implications of this inflation surge are multifaceted. The increased inflation rates have led to heightened volatility in the crypto market, with trading volumes for BTC surging by 15% to 2.3 million BTC traded in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). Similarly, ETH trading volumes increased by 12%, reaching 1.8 million ETH over the same period (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair saw a significant increase in open interest, rising by 8% to $12 billion as of 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CryptoQuant, March 30, 2025). This indicates a growing interest in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Additionally, the ETH/BTC trading pair experienced a 5% increase in trading volume, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards Ethereum as an alternative store of value (CoinGecko, March 30, 2025). The on-chain metrics further support this trend, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses increasing by 10% to 1.2 million in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (Glassnode, March 30, 2025).

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market's reaction to the inflation news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC reached 72 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a short-term correction (TradingView, March 30, 2025). Conversely, ETH's RSI stood at 68, suggesting a slightly less overbought state (TradingView, March 30, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bullish crossover at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, signaling continued upward momentum (TradingView, March 30, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH widened significantly, with the upper band reaching $3,450 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating increased volatility (TradingView, March 30, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the Bitcoin hash rate increased by 3% to 350 EH/s in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, reflecting heightened network security and miner confidence (Blockchain.com, March 30, 2025). The Ethereum gas price also rose by 10% to 50 Gwei over the same period, indicating increased network activity (Etherscan, March 30, 2025).

In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement by NVIDIA of a new AI chip, the A100X, on March 28, 2025, has had a direct impact on AI-related tokens (NVIDIA, March 28, 2025). The token for the AI platform SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 7% increase in price, moving from $0.80 to $0.86 within the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). This surge in AGIX price is correlated with a 5% increase in trading volume, reaching 15 million AGIX traded over the same period (CoinMarketCap, March 30, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets is evident, as BTC and ETH also experienced price increases following the NVIDIA announcement. The AI-driven trading volume for BTC increased by 3% to 700,000 BTC traded in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating a growing interest in AI-driven trading strategies (CryptoQuant, March 30, 2025). This trend suggests potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens like AGIX, which are directly influenced by AI advancements. The overall market sentiment has been positively influenced by AI developments, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising from 65 to 70 in the last 24 hours ending at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (Alternative.me, March 30, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.