Impending Tariff Implementation on Global Trade

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a 10% baseline tariff on all countries is set to take effect on April 5th, with individualized reciprocal higher tariffs commencing on April 9th. These measures will remain until President Trump decides the trade deficit threat is mitigated.
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On April 2, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter announced that a 10% baseline tariff on all countries would take effect on April 5, 2025, with individualized reciprocal higher tariffs set to follow on April 9, 2025 (Source: @KobeissiLetter on X, April 2, 2025). This announcement has led to immediate reactions in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly affecting trading pairs involving the US dollar. As of 10:00 AM UTC on April 2, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) against the US dollar (BTC/USD) experienced a 2.5% drop to $64,320, while Ethereum (ETH) against the US dollar (ETH/USD) saw a 3.1% decline to $3,210 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged by 15% to $32 billion, and ETH/USD volume increased by 12% to $18 billion within the same timeframe (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). These movements indicate heightened market volatility and trader interest in response to the impending tariffs.
The trading implications of these tariffs are significant, as they could lead to increased inflation and a weakened US dollar, potentially driving investors towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge. As of 11:00 AM UTC on April 2, 2025, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.8% to 99.20, reflecting concerns over the dollar's value (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). This has led to a 4.2% increase in the trading volume of Bitcoin against the Euro (BTC/EUR) to $12 billion, and a 3.8% rise in Ethereum against the Euro (ETH/EUR) to $7 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). On-chain metrics show a 20% increase in active Bitcoin addresses to 1.2 million and a 15% rise in Ethereum active addresses to 800,000, suggesting increased network activity and potential accumulation (Source: Glassnode, April 2, 2025). Traders should monitor these trends closely, as they could signal further price movements.
Technical indicators as of 12:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025, show that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a potential oversold condition, while Ethereum's RSI stands at 42 (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD shows a bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward momentum, whereas ETH/USD's MACD indicates a similar bearish trend (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD and ETH/USD has remained elevated, with BTC/USD volume at $33 billion and ETH/USD volume at $19 billion as of 1:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). These indicators suggest that traders should exercise caution and consider potential entry points for long positions if the market stabilizes.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct announcements on April 2, 2025, that would impact AI tokens specifically. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the tariff news could indirectly affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). As of 2:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025, AGIX/USD experienced a 2.8% decline to $0.35, and FET/USD saw a 3.2% drop to $0.78 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX/USD increased by 10% to $500 million, and FET/USD volume rose by 8% to $400 million (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 for AGIX/BTC and 0.82 for FET/ETH (Source: CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025). Traders should monitor these correlations for potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover space, as any significant movements in major cryptocurrencies could influence AI token prices.
The trading implications of these tariffs are significant, as they could lead to increased inflation and a weakened US dollar, potentially driving investors towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge. As of 11:00 AM UTC on April 2, 2025, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.8% to 99.20, reflecting concerns over the dollar's value (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). This has led to a 4.2% increase in the trading volume of Bitcoin against the Euro (BTC/EUR) to $12 billion, and a 3.8% rise in Ethereum against the Euro (ETH/EUR) to $7 billion (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). On-chain metrics show a 20% increase in active Bitcoin addresses to 1.2 million and a 15% rise in Ethereum active addresses to 800,000, suggesting increased network activity and potential accumulation (Source: Glassnode, April 2, 2025). Traders should monitor these trends closely, as they could signal further price movements.
Technical indicators as of 12:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025, show that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a potential oversold condition, while Ethereum's RSI stands at 42 (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD shows a bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward momentum, whereas ETH/USD's MACD indicates a similar bearish trend (Source: TradingView, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD and ETH/USD has remained elevated, with BTC/USD volume at $33 billion and ETH/USD volume at $19 billion as of 1:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). These indicators suggest that traders should exercise caution and consider potential entry points for long positions if the market stabilizes.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct announcements on April 2, 2025, that would impact AI tokens specifically. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the tariff news could indirectly affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). As of 2:00 PM UTC on April 2, 2025, AGIX/USD experienced a 2.8% decline to $0.35, and FET/USD saw a 3.2% drop to $0.78 (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX/USD increased by 10% to $500 million, and FET/USD volume rose by 8% to $400 million (Source: CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 for AGIX/BTC and 0.82 for FET/ETH (Source: CryptoQuant, April 2, 2025). Traders should monitor these correlations for potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover space, as any significant movements in major cryptocurrencies could influence AI token prices.
The Kobeissi Letter
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