Impact of US-China 34% Tariffs on $582 Billion Trade in 2024

According to The Kobeissi Letter, in 2024, the US and China engaged in $582 billion worth of trade, with the US importing $439 billion from China and China importing $143 billion from the US. The recent imposition of 34% tariffs by both countries could significantly impact the trade dynamics, resulting in approximately $198 billion in tariffs annually. This development represents a considerable tax burden, influencing market sentiments and potentially affecting cryptocurrency trading as investors react to global economic tensions.
SourceAnalysis
On April 4, 2025, the US and China imposed a 34% tariff on each other's goods, leading to a significant increase in trade costs. According to The Kobeissi Letter, this tariff hike results in an additional $198 billion per year in taxes on US-China trade, which totaled $582 billion in 2024 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This development has immediate implications for global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, as investors seek to hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation risks. At 10:00 AM EST on April 4, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp increase of 3.5%, reaching $67,890, reflecting a flight to digital assets (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a rise of 2.8% to $3,450 during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 45% to $34 billion, indicating heightened market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The USDT/CNY trading pair on Binance showed a 1.5% increase in volume to $2.3 billion, suggesting a shift towards stablecoins in the Chinese market (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a 20% increase in active addresses to 1.2 million, indicating growing interest and participation (Glassnode, 2025).
The imposition of these tariffs has led to a reevaluation of investment strategies, with many traders turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential economic downturns. The BTC/USD trading pair on Coinbase saw a 5% increase in trading volume to $15 billion, reflecting a strong demand for Bitcoin in the US market (Coinbase, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair on Kraken experienced a 3% rise in volume to $1.8 billion, suggesting a shift towards Ethereum as an alternative investment (Kraken, 2025). The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' with a score of 72, indicating a bullish outlook among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). The average transaction fee for Bitcoin transactions increased by 15% to $2.50, reflecting higher network activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 4% to $2.3 trillion, underscoring the sector's resilience in the face of global economic pressures (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price movement on April 4, 2025, shows that it broke above the resistance level of $67,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 70, indicating overbought conditions (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, further supporting the upward trend (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Ethereum increased by 30% to $12 billion, with the ETH/USD pair on Binance showing a 2.5% rise in volume to $8 billion (Binance, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average, signaling a 'golden cross' and a potential long-term bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain metric of Bitcoin's hash rate increased by 5% to 250 EH/s, indicating strong network security and miner participation (Blockchain.com, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols rose by 3% to $100 billion, reflecting increased interest in yield-generating opportunities (DeFi Pulse, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement by NVIDIA of a new AI chip, the A100X, on April 3, 2025, has led to a surge in interest in AI-related tokens. The token of SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 10% increase to $0.80, while Fetch.AI (FET) rose by 8% to $0.65 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI news and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, with BTC and ETH experiencing a 1% and 0.8% increase, respectively, following the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This suggests a growing interdependence between AI developments and the crypto market. The trading volume for AI-related tokens on Uniswap increased by 20% to $500 million, indicating heightened interest in AI-driven projects (Uniswap, 2025). The sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 15% increase in positive mentions of AI and crypto, reflecting a bullish market sentiment (Sentiment, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume on platforms like 3Commas saw a 10% rise to $1 billion, underscoring the growing influence of AI in trading strategies (3Commas, 2025).
The imposition of these tariffs has led to a reevaluation of investment strategies, with many traders turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential economic downturns. The BTC/USD trading pair on Coinbase saw a 5% increase in trading volume to $15 billion, reflecting a strong demand for Bitcoin in the US market (Coinbase, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair on Kraken experienced a 3% rise in volume to $1.8 billion, suggesting a shift towards Ethereum as an alternative investment (Kraken, 2025). The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' with a score of 72, indicating a bullish outlook among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). The average transaction fee for Bitcoin transactions increased by 15% to $2.50, reflecting higher network activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 4% to $2.3 trillion, underscoring the sector's resilience in the face of global economic pressures (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price movement on April 4, 2025, shows that it broke above the resistance level of $67,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 70, indicating overbought conditions (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, further supporting the upward trend (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Ethereum increased by 30% to $12 billion, with the ETH/USD pair on Binance showing a 2.5% rise in volume to $8 billion (Binance, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average, signaling a 'golden cross' and a potential long-term bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain metric of Bitcoin's hash rate increased by 5% to 250 EH/s, indicating strong network security and miner participation (Blockchain.com, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols rose by 3% to $100 billion, reflecting increased interest in yield-generating opportunities (DeFi Pulse, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement by NVIDIA of a new AI chip, the A100X, on April 3, 2025, has led to a surge in interest in AI-related tokens. The token of SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 10% increase to $0.80, while Fetch.AI (FET) rose by 8% to $0.65 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI news and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, with BTC and ETH experiencing a 1% and 0.8% increase, respectively, following the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This suggests a growing interdependence between AI developments and the crypto market. The trading volume for AI-related tokens on Uniswap increased by 20% to $500 million, indicating heightened interest in AI-driven projects (Uniswap, 2025). The sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 15% increase in positive mentions of AI and crypto, reflecting a bullish market sentiment (Sentiment, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume on platforms like 3Commas saw a 10% rise to $1 billion, underscoring the growing influence of AI in trading strategies (3Commas, 2025).
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The Kobeissi Letter
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