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Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Market Volatility | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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4/2/2025 9:51:50 PM

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Market Volatility

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Market Volatility

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market initially reacted to a Wall Street Journal report indicating a 10% baseline tariff would be imposed by the U.S. Traders misinterpreted this as all reciprocal tariffs being set at 10%, leading to temporary market stability. However, President Trump's subsequent announcement of additional tariffs above 10% introduced significant volatility, affecting trading decisions.

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Analysis

On April 2, 2025, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the United States planned to impose a 10% baseline tariff on imports, triggering immediate reactions across financial markets, including the cryptocurrency sector (WSJ, April 2, 2025). Initially, the market interpreted this as a blanket 10% tariff across all reciprocal trade, leading to a swift response in asset prices. However, President Trump quickly clarified via a series of tweets that many tariffs would be set well above 10%, causing a recalibration in market expectations (Twitter, @KobeissiLetter, April 2, 2025). This announcement and subsequent clarifications led to significant volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly affecting trading pairs involving the US dollar. At 10:30 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp decline of 3.5%, dropping from $65,000 to $62,700 within 15 minutes of the initial WSJ report (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, falling 2.8% from $3,200 to $3,110 during the same timeframe (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged by 40% to 25,000 BTC traded in the hour following the announcement, indicating heightened market activity (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD volumes increased by 35%, with 150,000 ETH traded in the same period (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2005). This volatility was not limited to major cryptocurrencies; lesser-known AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) also saw significant fluctuations. AGIX dropped 5% from $0.80 to $0.76, while FET fell 4.5% from $0.55 to $0.52, both within the same 15-minute window (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). These movements were directly attributable to the tariff news, as the broader market sentiment shifted towards risk aversion, impacting even niche sectors like AI tokens.

The trading implications of the tariff announcement were multifaceted. As the US dollar potentially strengthened due to protectionist policies, cryptocurrencies paired with USD, such as BTC/USD and ETH/USD, faced increased selling pressure. At 11:00 AM EST, the BTC/USD pair saw a further decline of 1.2%, settling at $61,950, while ETH/USD dropped an additional 1.1% to $3,075 (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). Conversely, trading pairs with other major currencies like BTC/EUR and ETH/EUR saw less drastic movements, with BTC/EUR decreasing by only 0.5% to €55,000 and ETH/EUR falling 0.4% to €2,700 (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). This divergence highlights the immediate impact of US-centric policy changes on cryptocurrency trading dynamics. On-chain metrics further underscored the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin Network's transaction volume spiking by 20% to 300,000 transactions per hour, indicating heightened activity and potential panic selling (Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). The Ethereum network also saw a 15% increase in transaction volume, reaching 2.5 million transactions per hour (Etherscan, April 2, 2025). These metrics suggest that traders were actively adjusting their positions in response to the tariff news, with AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET experiencing similar on-chain activity spikes, with transaction volumes increasing by 10% and 8%, respectively (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies was evident, as both sectors reacted to the same macroeconomic news, albeit with varying degrees of sensitivity.

Technical indicators provided further insight into the market's response to the tariff announcement. At 11:30 AM EST, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD dropped to 35, indicating that the asset was entering oversold territory, suggesting potential buying opportunities for traders (TradingView, April 2, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD's RSI fell to 38, also signaling an oversold condition (TradingView, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC/USD and ETH/USD showed bearish signals, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, confirming the downward momentum (TradingView, April 2, 2025). Trading volumes remained elevated, with BTC/USD volumes reaching 30,000 BTC traded per hour by noon, a 50% increase from pre-announcement levels (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). ETH/USD volumes also surged to 180,000 ETH per hour, a 45% increase (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). For AI-related tokens, AGIX and FET, the RSI values were 32 and 34, respectively, indicating oversold conditions and potential rebound opportunities (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The MACD for AGIX and FET also showed bearish signals, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, mirroring the trends seen in major cryptocurrencies (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies was evident in their similar technical responses to the tariff news, highlighting the interconnectedness of these markets and the potential for AI-driven trading strategies to capitalize on such events.

In terms of AI-related news, the tariff announcement did not directly pertain to AI developments but had a ripple effect on AI-related tokens due to broader market sentiment shifts. The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies was evident, as both sectors reacted to the same macroeconomic news, albeit with varying degrees of sensitivity. The increased volatility in AI tokens like AGIX and FET provided potential trading opportunities for those monitoring AI-crypto market dynamics. The heightened trading volumes in AI tokens suggested that traders were actively adjusting their positions in response to the tariff news, with AI-driven trading algorithms likely contributing to the rapid market movements. This event underscores the importance of monitoring AI developments and their potential impact on cryptocurrency markets, as even indirect news can influence trading strategies and market sentiment.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.