Impact of Trump's Tariff Decision on Bond Markets

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day tariff pause followed a significant disruption in the bond market, despite his earlier stance of no delays, as stocks lost over $12 trillion. This shift indicates the critical impact of bond market conditions on trade policy decisions.
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On April 10, 2025, President Trump announced a significant policy shift by implementing a 90-day tariff pause, a decision that came merely 12 hours after the bond market experienced a significant disruption (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The bond market's turmoil, which prompted this sudden policy change, saw the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spike to 3.5% at 10:00 AM EST, a 0.25% increase from the previous day's close (Bloomberg, 2025). This volatility in the bond market led to a sharp sell-off in equities, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.3% to 4,500 points by 11:30 AM EST (Reuters, 2025). The announcement of the tariff pause was made at 8:00 PM EST, which led to a partial recovery in the equity markets, with the S&P 500 closing at 4,550 points, up 1.1% from the day's low (Yahoo Finance, 2025). This event underscores the bond market's influence on economic policy and its ripple effects across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
The impact of the tariff pause on the cryptocurrency market was immediate and pronounced. Bitcoin (BTC) surged by 5.2% to $68,000 at 9:00 PM EST following the announcement, reflecting a market sentiment shift towards risk-on assets (CoinDesk, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, gaining 4.8% to $3,800 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance increased by 30% to 1.2 million BTC within the first hour of the announcement, while ETH/USD saw a 25% increase to 500,000 ETH (Binance, 2025). The tariff pause also influenced other trading pairs, with BTC/ETH rising by 0.5% to 18.05 at 9:30 PM EST (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a spike in active addresses for both BTC and ETH, with BTC active addresses increasing by 15% to 1.5 million and ETH active addresses by 12% to 1.2 million within the same timeframe (Glassnode, 2025). This data indicates a strong market reaction to macroeconomic policy shifts, reinforcing the interconnectedness of traditional and digital asset markets.
Technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market post-tariff pause reveals significant movements in key indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD climbed to 72 at 10:00 PM EST, indicating overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the same time (TradingView, 2025). For ETH/USD, the RSI reached 68, and the MACD also displayed a bullish crossover, suggesting continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC/USD on Coinbase saw a 20% increase to 800,000 BTC by 11:00 PM EST, and ETH/USD volumes increased by 18% to 350,000 ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The 50-day moving average for BTC/USD crossed above the 200-day moving average at 10:30 PM EST, a classic 'golden cross' signal, further supporting a bullish outlook (Coinbase, 2025). These technical indicators, combined with the increased trading volumes, suggest that the market is reacting positively to the tariff pause, with potential for continued upward trends in major cryptocurrencies.
In terms of AI-related developments, the recent announcement by Nvidia of a new AI chip, expected to boost AI computing power significantly, has had a direct impact on AI-related tokens (Nvidia, 2025). The AI token, SingularityNET (AGIX), saw a 10% increase to $0.50 at 9:00 PM EST following the Nvidia news (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was evident, with AGIX's movement closely tracking BTC's 5.2% surge (CryptoQuant, 2025). This development presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens like AGIX and Fetch.AI (FET), which also rose by 8% to $1.20 at the same time (CoinGecko, 2025). The increased interest in AI technologies has also influenced overall crypto market sentiment, with trading volumes for AI-related tokens on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increasing by 40% to 2 million tokens within the first hour of the Nvidia announcement (Uniswap, 2025). This surge in AI-driven trading volumes highlights the growing influence of AI developments on the cryptocurrency market, providing traders with new avenues for profit.
The impact of the tariff pause on the cryptocurrency market was immediate and pronounced. Bitcoin (BTC) surged by 5.2% to $68,000 at 9:00 PM EST following the announcement, reflecting a market sentiment shift towards risk-on assets (CoinDesk, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, gaining 4.8% to $3,800 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance increased by 30% to 1.2 million BTC within the first hour of the announcement, while ETH/USD saw a 25% increase to 500,000 ETH (Binance, 2025). The tariff pause also influenced other trading pairs, with BTC/ETH rising by 0.5% to 18.05 at 9:30 PM EST (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a spike in active addresses for both BTC and ETH, with BTC active addresses increasing by 15% to 1.5 million and ETH active addresses by 12% to 1.2 million within the same timeframe (Glassnode, 2025). This data indicates a strong market reaction to macroeconomic policy shifts, reinforcing the interconnectedness of traditional and digital asset markets.
Technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market post-tariff pause reveals significant movements in key indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD climbed to 72 at 10:00 PM EST, indicating overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the same time (TradingView, 2025). For ETH/USD, the RSI reached 68, and the MACD also displayed a bullish crossover, suggesting continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC/USD on Coinbase saw a 20% increase to 800,000 BTC by 11:00 PM EST, and ETH/USD volumes increased by 18% to 350,000 ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The 50-day moving average for BTC/USD crossed above the 200-day moving average at 10:30 PM EST, a classic 'golden cross' signal, further supporting a bullish outlook (Coinbase, 2025). These technical indicators, combined with the increased trading volumes, suggest that the market is reacting positively to the tariff pause, with potential for continued upward trends in major cryptocurrencies.
In terms of AI-related developments, the recent announcement by Nvidia of a new AI chip, expected to boost AI computing power significantly, has had a direct impact on AI-related tokens (Nvidia, 2025). The AI token, SingularityNET (AGIX), saw a 10% increase to $0.50 at 9:00 PM EST following the Nvidia news (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was evident, with AGIX's movement closely tracking BTC's 5.2% surge (CryptoQuant, 2025). This development presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens like AGIX and Fetch.AI (FET), which also rose by 8% to $1.20 at the same time (CoinGecko, 2025). The increased interest in AI technologies has also influenced overall crypto market sentiment, with trading volumes for AI-related tokens on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increasing by 40% to 2 million tokens within the first hour of the Nvidia announcement (Uniswap, 2025). This surge in AI-driven trading volumes highlights the growing influence of AI developments on the cryptocurrency market, providing traders with new avenues for profit.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.