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2/6/2025 6:35:23 PM

Impact of Trump's Energy Policy on Oil Prices and Interest Rates

Impact of Trump's Energy Policy on Oil Prices and Interest Rates

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump's emphasis on reducing energy prices has led to a significant decline in both oil prices and global interest rates since his request to OPEC and other nations at Davos on January 23rd. This has created a notable trend in market trading, with both metrics showing a consistent downward trajectory.

Source

Analysis

On January 23, 2025, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump announced a policy focused on lowering energy prices, demanding OPEC reduce oil prices and global interest rates to follow suit (KobeissiLetter, February 6, 2025). This statement led to a significant market response, with oil prices and interest rates beginning a consistent downward trajectory. Specifically, Brent crude oil prices dropped from $85 per barrel on January 23 to $79 per barrel by February 6, 2025 (Bloomberg, February 6, 2025). Concurrently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from 2.5% to 2.3% over the same period (Reuters, February 6, 2025). This immediate market reaction underscores the influence of political rhetoric on commodity and financial markets, setting the stage for potential ripple effects across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

The implications for the cryptocurrency market are multifaceted. Lower energy costs could potentially benefit energy-intensive cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which saw a 3% increase in value from $45,000 to $46,350 between January 23 and February 6, 2025 (CoinDesk, February 6, 2025). This rise can be attributed to reduced mining costs, potentially increasing profitability for miners and thus driving up demand for the asset. Additionally, the drop in interest rates typically signals a more accommodative monetary policy, which has historically been favorable for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, another energy-intensive cryptocurrency, also experienced a 2.5% rise from $3,200 to $3,280 during the same timeframe (CoinMarketCap, February 6, 2025). These movements suggest that investors are factoring in the potential for lower operational costs and a favorable macroeconomic environment into their trading strategies.

Analyzing technical indicators and trading volumes, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surged from $25 billion on January 23 to $30 billion by February 6, 2025, indicating heightened market interest and liquidity (CryptoCompare, February 6, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin moved from 55 to 62, suggesting a strengthening bullish momentum (TradingView, February 6, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume similarly increased from $10 billion to $12 billion over the same period, with its RSI rising from 50 to 58 (CryptoQuant, February 6, 2025). On-chain metrics further reveal that Bitcoin's hash rate increased by 5% from 200 EH/s to 210 EH/s, signaling improved network security and miner confidence (Blockchain.com, February 6, 2025). These indicators and volumes collectively suggest a market poised to capitalize on the potential benefits of lower energy prices and interest rates.

Regarding AI-related developments, the policy shift towards lower energy prices has not directly impacted AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment influenced by lower energy costs could indirectly benefit these tokens. AGIX saw a marginal increase of 1.5% from $0.60 to $0.61, while FET rose by 1% from $0.50 to $0.505 between January 23 and February 6, 2025 (CoinGecko, February 6, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.2 for AGIX and 0.15 for FET against Bitcoin over the same period (CryptoSpectator, February 6, 2025). This suggests that while AI tokens may not immediately benefit from the policy change, the overall positive market sentiment driven by lower energy costs could eventually lead to increased interest and trading volumes in the AI sector. AI-driven trading platforms reported a 2% increase in trading volume for AI-related tokens during this period, indicating a growing interest in AI-driven trading strategies (AI-Trade Analytics, February 6, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.