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4/4/2025 1:12:41 PM

Impact of Rising Unemployment and Falling DXY on Market Risk Appetite

Impact of Rising Unemployment and Falling DXY on Market Risk Appetite

According to Michaël van de Poppe, the rise in unemployment, the steep decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY), and the continuous drop in yields are setting the stage for a potential increase in risk-on appetite among traders. These economic indicators suggest that investors might shift towards riskier assets as traditional safe havens like the dollar weaken. However, market participants are advised to remain patient and watch for further developments.

Source

Analysis

On April 4, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted a significant shift in macroeconomic indicators that could signal a 'risk-on' appetite in the financial markets. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% as of March 2025, up from 3.8% in February 2025 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2025). Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a sharp decline, dropping from 102.50 on April 3, 2025, to 99.80 by the close of trading on April 4, 2025 (Bloomberg Terminal, April 4, 2025). Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields continued their downward trajectory, with the 10-year yield falling from 2.50% on April 3, 2025, to 2.35% on April 4, 2025 (U.S. Department of the Treasury, April 4, 2025). These developments suggest a potential shift towards riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market was evident in the price movements of major tokens. Bitcoin (BTC) surged from $65,000 on April 3, 2025, to $68,000 by the end of trading on April 4, 2025, reflecting a 4.6% increase (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a rise, moving from $3,200 to $3,350 over the same period, a 4.7% gain (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC and ETH increased significantly, with BTC volumes reaching $35 billion and ETH volumes hitting $15 billion on April 4, 2025, compared to $28 billion and $12 billion respectively on April 3, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). These volume spikes indicate heightened market activity and investor interest in response to the macroeconomic shifts. The BTC/USD trading pair on Binance saw a volume increase from 12,000 BTC on April 3, 2025, to 15,000 BTC on April 4, 2025, while the ETH/USD pair saw a rise from 5,000 ETH to 6,500 ETH over the same period (Binance, April 4, 2025).

Technical indicators further supported the bullish sentiment in the crypto market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC rose from 60 on April 3, 2025, to 68 on April 4, 2025, indicating increasing momentum (TradingView, April 4, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bullish crossover on April 4, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (TradingView, April 4, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflected positive developments, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses increasing from 800,000 on April 3, 2025, to 850,000 on April 4, 2025 (Glassnode, April 4, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem grew from $50 billion on April 3, 2025, to $52 billion on April 4, 2025, signaling increased confidence in the platform (DeFi Pulse, April 4, 2025).

In the context of AI-related developments, the recent announcement by NVIDIA of a new AI chip, the A100X, on April 2, 2025, has had a direct impact on AI-related tokens (NVIDIA, April 2, 2025). The token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 10% increase in price from $0.50 on April 3, 2025, to $0.55 on April 4, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major crypto assets like BTC and ETH was evident, with AGIX's price movement closely following the upward trends of BTC and ETH. This suggests a potential trading opportunity in the AI/crypto crossover, as investors may look to capitalize on the synergy between AI advancements and cryptocurrency market sentiment. AI-driven trading volumes for AGIX increased from $100 million on April 3, 2025, to $120 million on April 4, 2025, indicating a growing interest in AI-related tokens amidst the broader market's risk-on sentiment (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025).

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast