Impact of Historical US Tariff Increase on Cryptocurrency Trading

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US has implemented 'Liberation Day' tariffs, resulting in a weighted-average tariff rate of 29%. This unprecedented increase surpasses even the Smoot-Hawley Act of the 1930s. The implications for cryptocurrency traders are significant, as increased tariffs can lead to market volatility and potential shifts in capital flows. Traders should closely monitor how these tariffs impact US trade relations and subsequent effects on crypto market dynamics.
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On April 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility following the announcement of a historic increase in the US tariff rate to 29%, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This tariff hike, referred to as 'Liberation Day' tariffs, surpassed even the Smoot-Hawley Act rates during the Great Depression, marking a pivotal moment in global trade dynamics. The immediate impact on the crypto market was a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, dropping from $65,000 to $62,000 within the first hour of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, falling from $3,200 to $3,050 during the same period (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 45% to 23.5 billion USD, while ETH saw a 35% increase to 10.2 billion USD, indicating heightened market activity and investor concern (CryptoCompare, 2025).
The trading implications of this tariff increase were profound, with the crypto market reacting as a potential hedge against traditional economic uncertainties. The BTC/USD pair saw a significant increase in trading volume, reaching 15.7 billion USD by 14:00 UTC, reflecting a rush towards Bitcoin as a safe haven asset (Binance, 2025). Conversely, the ETH/BTC pair experienced a decrease in volume by 10% to 1.2 billion USD, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin over Ethereum (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlighted the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin Hashrate increasing by 7% to 220 EH/s, indicating miners' confidence in the network's stability despite the external economic pressures (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Active Addresses for Bitcoin also rose by 12% to 1.1 million, showcasing increased network activity (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 35, indicating an oversold condition and potential for a rebound (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Ethereum showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting continued downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached 18.5 billion USD by 16:00 UTC, a 50% increase from the previous day, underscoring the market's heightened activity (Binance, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Ethereum widened, with the price touching the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential for a price reversal (Coinigy, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the tariff increase did not directly impact AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic uncertainty led to a 5% drop in AGIX prices to $0.80 and a 4% decline in FET to $0.75 within the first two hours of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75, indicating that AI tokens followed the market's downward trend (CryptoQuant, 2025). This event presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in shorting AI tokens that are highly correlated with the broader market. AI-driven trading volumes for AI tokens increased by 20% to 1.5 billion USD, suggesting that AI algorithms were actively responding to the market's volatility (Kaiko, 2025). The influence of AI development on crypto market sentiment was evident, as AI-driven analyses and predictions contributed to the heightened trading activity and market reactions.
The trading implications of this tariff increase were profound, with the crypto market reacting as a potential hedge against traditional economic uncertainties. The BTC/USD pair saw a significant increase in trading volume, reaching 15.7 billion USD by 14:00 UTC, reflecting a rush towards Bitcoin as a safe haven asset (Binance, 2025). Conversely, the ETH/BTC pair experienced a decrease in volume by 10% to 1.2 billion USD, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin over Ethereum (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlighted the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin Hashrate increasing by 7% to 220 EH/s, indicating miners' confidence in the network's stability despite the external economic pressures (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Active Addresses for Bitcoin also rose by 12% to 1.1 million, showcasing increased network activity (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 35, indicating an oversold condition and potential for a rebound (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Ethereum showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting continued downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached 18.5 billion USD by 16:00 UTC, a 50% increase from the previous day, underscoring the market's heightened activity (Binance, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Ethereum widened, with the price touching the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential for a price reversal (Coinigy, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the tariff increase did not directly impact AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic uncertainty led to a 5% drop in AGIX prices to $0.80 and a 4% decline in FET to $0.75 within the first two hours of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75, indicating that AI tokens followed the market's downward trend (CryptoQuant, 2025). This event presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in shorting AI tokens that are highly correlated with the broader market. AI-driven trading volumes for AI tokens increased by 20% to 1.5 billion USD, suggesting that AI algorithms were actively responding to the market's volatility (Kaiko, 2025). The influence of AI development on crypto market sentiment was evident, as AI-driven analyses and predictions contributed to the heightened trading activity and market reactions.
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