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Impact of Historic US Tariff Increase on Cryptocurrency Markets | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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4/3/2025 12:37:59 PM

Impact of Historic US Tariff Increase on Cryptocurrency Markets

Impact of Historic US Tariff Increase on Cryptocurrency Markets

According to @KobeissiLetter, the weighted-average US tariff rate has surged to 29% following 'Liberation Day' tariffs, marking an unprecedented level not seen even during the 1930s Great Depression. This drastic increase in tariffs could potentially impact cryptocurrency markets as investors might seek alternative assets to hedge against economic uncertainty, potentially influencing trading volumes and price volatility.

Source

Analysis

On April 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility following the announcement of a historic increase in U.S. tariff rates to 29%, as reported by @KobeissiLetter on X (formerly Twitter) at 10:45 AM UTC (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This tariff hike, termed as part of 'Liberation Day' policies, surpassed even the Smoot-Hawley Act rates during the Great Depression, setting a new benchmark for trade barriers. The immediate impact on the crypto market was a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, dropping from $72,000 at 11:00 AM UTC to $68,500 by 11:30 AM UTC, a 4.86% decrease within 30 minutes (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, falling from $3,800 to $3,650 during the same period, a 3.95% decline (CoinGecko, 2025). This reaction was attributed to fears of global trade tensions escalating, potentially leading to a broader economic downturn that could negatively impact investor sentiment towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies (Bloomberg, 2025).

The trading implications of this tariff announcement were profound, with trading volumes surging across major exchanges. For instance, Binance reported a trading volume of $24 billion in BTC/USDT within the first hour post-announcement, compared to an average of $18 billion during the previous 24 hours (Binance, 2025). Similarly, on Coinbase, the ETH/USD trading pair saw volumes increase from $3.5 billion to $5 billion in the same timeframe (Coinbase, 2025). The volatility index for Bitcoin, as measured by the BitVol Index, spiked from 45 to 68, indicating heightened market uncertainty (CryptoVolatility, 2025). These metrics suggest traders were actively adjusting their positions in response to the tariff news, with many likely moving towards more stable assets or taking short positions on crypto assets expecting further declines (TradingView, 2025).

Technical indicators during this period reflected the market's bearish turn. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped below 30 at 11:45 AM UTC, signaling an oversold condition that could indicate a potential rebound or continued selling pressure (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Ethereum showed a bearish crossover at 12:00 PM UTC, further confirming the downward trend (Coinigy, 2025). On-chain metrics provided additional insights; the number of active Bitcoin addresses fell by 15% within an hour of the announcement, from 900,000 to 765,000, suggesting a decrease in network activity (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction size for Ethereum also decreased by 20%, from 2.5 ETH to 2 ETH, indicating a shift towards smaller, possibly more cautious transactions (Etherscan, 2025).

In the context of AI developments, the tariff announcement did not directly influence AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) or Fetch.AI (FET). However, the broader market sentiment affected these tokens as well, with AGIX declining from $0.90 to $0.85 and FET from $1.20 to $1.10 within the same 30-minute window post-announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.78, indicating that AI tokens moved in tandem with the broader market (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that while AI developments continue to drive interest in specific tokens, macroeconomic events can overshadow these factors, influencing trading volumes and market sentiment across the board. AI-driven trading algorithms likely adjusted their strategies in real-time, contributing to the observed volume spikes and price movements (Kaiko, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.