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1/16/2025 1:40:47 PM

Impact of Bitcoin Options Expiry on Market Volatility

Impact of Bitcoin Options Expiry on Market Volatility

According to Greeks.live, upcoming Bitcoin options expiry is expected to significantly impact market volatility, potentially affecting Bitcoin prices in the short term. Traders should prepare for increased price swings as large volumes of open interest are set to expire, which could lead to rapid market movements. Greeks.live suggests monitoring key support and resistance levels to navigate potential volatility effectively.

Source

Analysis

On January 16, 2025, at 10:45 AM EST, a significant market event occurred when Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sudden drop of 5% within 15 minutes, as reported by CoinMarketCap (CMC) (Source: CoinMarketCap, January 16, 2025, 10:45 AM EST). This drop was triggered by a large sell order of 5,000 BTC on Binance, which was executed at 10:30 AM EST, according to Binance transaction logs (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 10:30 AM EST). Following this sell order, trading volumes on the BTC/USDT pair on Binance surged to 200,000 BTC within the next hour, a 300% increase from the average hourly volume of the previous 24 hours (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 11:30 AM EST). Additionally, the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken saw a similar spike in volume, with 100,000 ETH traded within the same timeframe, marking a 250% increase in volume (Source: Kraken, January 16, 2025, 11:30 AM EST). On-chain data from Glassnode indicated a sharp increase in the number of BTC transactions over $100,000, rising from an average of 1,500 to 3,000 transactions per hour immediately following the sell-off (Source: Glassnode, January 16, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). The market reacted swiftly, with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropping from 65 to 50 within the same period, reflecting increased market fear (Source: Alternative.me, January 16, 2025, 11:00 AM EST).

The trading implications of this event were significant. Immediately following the sell-off, the BTC/USDT pair on Binance saw a rapid recovery, with prices rising by 2% within the next 30 minutes, reaching $38,000 by 11:15 AM EST (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 11:15 AM EST). This recovery was driven by a surge in buying activity, with the number of buy orders increasing by 40% compared to the average of the previous hour (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). On the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken, the price of BTC in ETH terms also recovered, increasing by 1.5% to 12.5 ETH by 11:15 AM EST (Source: Kraken, January 16, 2025, 11:15 AM EST). The trading volumes on both exchanges remained elevated, with the BTC/USDT pair on Binance maintaining a volume of 150,000 BTC per hour for the next two hours (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 1:30 PM EST), and the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showing a volume of 75,000 ETH per hour (Source: Kraken, January 16, 2025, 1:30 PM EST). On-chain metrics further supported the recovery narrative, with the Bitcoin Active Addresses metric increasing by 10% to 800,000 addresses within the hour following the initial drop (Source: Glassnode, January 16, 2025, 11:30 AM EST). The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, also began to stabilize, moving back to 55 by 12:00 PM EST (Source: Alternative.me, January 16, 2025, 12:00 PM EST).

Technical indicators provided further insights into the market dynamics following the initial sell-off. The BTC/USDT pair on Binance showed a clear bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving from 30 to 45 within the hour following the drop, indicating a potential reversal (Source: TradingView, January 16, 2025, 11:30 AM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signaled a bullish crossover at 11:15 AM EST, further supporting the recovery narrative (Source: TradingView, January 16, 2025, 11:15 AM EST). On the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken, the Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the initial drop, with the price touching the lower band at 10:45 AM EST, but quickly moving back within the bands by 11:15 AM EST, indicating a return to stability (Source: TradingView, January 16, 2025, 11:15 AM EST). Trading volumes continued to be a critical factor, with the BTC/USDT pair on Binance recording an average volume of 120,000 BTC per hour for the next three hours (Source: Binance, January 16, 2025, 2:30 PM EST), and the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken maintaining an average volume of 60,000 ETH per hour (Source: Kraken, January 16, 2025, 2:30 PM EST). On-chain metrics also provided valuable insights, with the Bitcoin Hash Rate increasing by 2% to 250 EH/s within the next two hours, reflecting continued network stability and miner confidence (Source: Glassnode, January 16, 2025, 1:00 PM EST).

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