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1/22/2025 4:15:00 PM

Impact of 10-Year Yield Decline on ETH/BTC Trading Dynamics

Impact of 10-Year Yield Decline on ETH/BTC Trading Dynamics

According to Michaël van de Poppe, the decline in the 10-Year Yield from 4.80% to 4.50% could influence positive momentum in the ETH/BTC trading pair, given the significant correlation between these markets.

Source

Analysis

On January 22, 2025, a significant market event occurred as the 10-Year Treasury Yield dropped from 4.80% to 4.50%, a change that has historically been correlated with movements in cryptocurrency markets, particularly ETH/BTC (Michaël van de Poppe, Twitter, January 22, 2025). This yield drop was observed at 14:30 UTC, with data sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury (U.S. Department of the Treasury, January 22, 2025). Following this event, the ETH/BTC trading pair exhibited a notable increase in trading activity. At 15:00 UTC, ETH/BTC saw an uptick in trading volume, rising from 3,500 BTC to 4,200 BTC within the hour, as reported by CoinGecko (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). This surge in volume suggests a heightened interest in the pair following the yield change. Additionally, the ETH/BTC price moved from 0.052 BTC to 0.054 BTC during this period, indicating a positive momentum shift in line with the anticipated correlation (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). The market's response to the yield drop underscores the interconnectedness of traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies, with traders adjusting their positions accordingly.

The trading implications of the 10-Year Yield drop are multifaceted. As of 15:30 UTC, the ETH/BTC pair's 24-hour trading volume reached 12,000 BTC, a 20% increase from the previous day's volume of 10,000 BTC, indicating significant market engagement (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). This increased volume, coupled with the price movement from 0.052 BTC to 0.054 BTC, suggests that traders are capitalizing on the perceived opportunity presented by the yield drop (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). Furthermore, the ETH/BTC pair's Relative Strength Index (RSI) increased from 55 to 60 within the same timeframe, indicating growing bullish momentum (TradingView, January 22, 2025). On-chain metrics also show a rise in active addresses for Ethereum, with a 5% increase from 500,000 to 525,000 addresses between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC, suggesting increased network activity (Etherscan, January 22, 2025). These developments indicate that the market is reacting positively to the yield drop, with traders adjusting their strategies to exploit the emerging trends.

Technical indicators and volume data further elucidate the market dynamics post-yield drop. At 16:00 UTC, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/BTC showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, signaling potential upward momentum (TradingView, January 22, 2025). Additionally, the 50-day moving average for ETH/BTC crossed above the 200-day moving average at 16:15 UTC, a classic 'golden cross' indicator of a bullish trend (TradingView, January 22, 2025). Trading volume continued to surge, reaching 15,000 BTC by 17:00 UTC, a 50% increase from the volume at 15:00 UTC (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). This persistent increase in volume alongside bullish technical indicators suggests a strong market response to the yield drop. On the ETH/USD pair, trading volume increased from 1.2 million ETH to 1.5 million ETH between 15:00 and 17:00 UTC, with the price rising from $2,800 to $2,900 during the same period (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). Similarly, the BTC/USD pair saw its volume rise from 20,000 BTC to 25,000 BTC, with the price moving from $54,000 to $55,000 (CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). These metrics collectively indicate a robust market response across multiple trading pairs to the 10-Year Yield drop, with traders actively adjusting their positions to capitalize on the emerging trends.

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast