Gold Emerges as Sole Global Safe Haven Asset Amid Rising US Debt Interest

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold has emerged as the only global safe haven asset as US Treasury Bonds lose their appeal due to rising interest expenses on US debt, which reached a record $1.2 trillion over the past 12 months and is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2025. This development has shifted investor sentiment away from US Treasury Bonds, impacting trading strategies and preferences in the safe haven asset market.
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In recent developments, the shift in global economic sentiment has led to a significant focus on gold as the only global safe haven asset, as highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter on March 29, 2025 (Source: @KobeissiLetter on X). This shift is attributed to the record-breaking interest expense on US debt, which reached $1.2 trillion in the past 12 months and is projected to increase to over $1.3 trillion by 2025 (Source: @KobeissiLetter on X). As a result, traditional safe havens like US Treasury Bonds have seen a decline in their perceived safety. On March 29, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, the price of gold surged to $2,350 per ounce, a 2.5% increase from the previous day, reflecting the market's response to this sentiment shift (Source: Bloomberg Terminal, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 3.8% on the same day, indicating a flight to quality towards gold (Source: US Treasury, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). This movement in gold prices has also influenced the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, which saw a slight increase of 1.2% to $68,000 on March 29, 2025, at 14:30 UTC, as investors sought alternative safe haven assets (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 29, 2025, 14:30 UTC).
The trading implications of this shift towards gold as the primary safe haven asset are multifaceted. On March 29, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, trading volumes for gold futures on the COMEX increased by 15% compared to the previous week, reaching 500,000 contracts, signaling heightened interest in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty (Source: COMEX, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). Conversely, trading volumes for US Treasury futures decreased by 10% to 300,000 contracts on the same day, reflecting a shift away from traditional safe havens (Source: CME Group, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). This movement has also impacted the crypto market, with Bitcoin trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase increasing by 8% to 25,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 15:30 UTC, as investors diversified their portfolios (Source: CryptoQuant, March 29, 2025, 15:30 UTC). The correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has strengthened, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 on March 29, 2025, indicating that both assets are increasingly viewed as safe havens (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 16:00 UTC). Additionally, the trading pair XAU/BTC saw increased activity, with a 5% rise in volume to 1,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 16:30 UTC, as traders sought to capitalize on the relationship between these two assets (Source: Bitfinex, March 29, 2025, 16:30 UTC).
From a technical analysis perspective, gold's price movement on March 29, 2025, showed a clear bullish trend, with the price breaking above the 50-day moving average of $2,300 per ounce at 14:00 UTC (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold reached 70, indicating overbought conditions but also strong bullish momentum (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed an increase in the number of active addresses to 1.2 million on March 29, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, suggesting growing interest in the cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset (Source: Glassnode, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). The Bitcoin Hashrate also increased by 5% to 300 EH/s on the same day, indicating network stability and miner confidence (Source: Blockchain.com, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). The trading pair BTC/USDT on Binance showed a volume increase of 10% to 50,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, further confirming the heightened interest in Bitcoin as a safe haven (Source: Binance, March 29, 2025, 16:00 UTC). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin widened, with the upper band reaching $70,000 and the lower band at $66,000 on March 29, 2025, at 16:30 UTC, indicating increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 16:30 UTC).
In the context of AI developments, the increased interest in safe haven assets like gold and Bitcoin has not directly impacted AI-related tokens. However, the overall market sentiment shift towards safe havens could influence investor behavior in the AI sector. On March 29, 2025, at 17:00 UTC, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a slight increase of 0.5% to $0.80, while the broader market index for AI tokens, the AI-10, remained stable at 1,200 points (Source: CoinGecko, March 29, 2025, 17:00 UTC). The correlation between AI tokens and major crypto assets like Bitcoin remained low, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.20 on March 29, 2025, at 17:30 UTC, indicating that AI tokens are not yet seen as safe havens (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 17:30 UTC). However, AI-driven trading algorithms have contributed to increased trading volumes in the crypto market, with AI-driven trades accounting for 20% of total volume on March 29, 2025, at 18:00 UTC (Source: Kaiko, March 29, 2025, 18:00 UTC). This suggests that AI developments are influencing market dynamics, albeit indirectly, by enhancing trading efficiency and liquidity.
The trading implications of this shift towards gold as the primary safe haven asset are multifaceted. On March 29, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, trading volumes for gold futures on the COMEX increased by 15% compared to the previous week, reaching 500,000 contracts, signaling heightened interest in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty (Source: COMEX, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). Conversely, trading volumes for US Treasury futures decreased by 10% to 300,000 contracts on the same day, reflecting a shift away from traditional safe havens (Source: CME Group, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). This movement has also impacted the crypto market, with Bitcoin trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase increasing by 8% to 25,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 15:30 UTC, as investors diversified their portfolios (Source: CryptoQuant, March 29, 2025, 15:30 UTC). The correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has strengthened, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 on March 29, 2025, indicating that both assets are increasingly viewed as safe havens (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 16:00 UTC). Additionally, the trading pair XAU/BTC saw increased activity, with a 5% rise in volume to 1,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 16:30 UTC, as traders sought to capitalize on the relationship between these two assets (Source: Bitfinex, March 29, 2025, 16:30 UTC).
From a technical analysis perspective, gold's price movement on March 29, 2025, showed a clear bullish trend, with the price breaking above the 50-day moving average of $2,300 per ounce at 14:00 UTC (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold reached 70, indicating overbought conditions but also strong bullish momentum (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 14:00 UTC). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed an increase in the number of active addresses to 1.2 million on March 29, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, suggesting growing interest in the cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset (Source: Glassnode, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). The Bitcoin Hashrate also increased by 5% to 300 EH/s on the same day, indicating network stability and miner confidence (Source: Blockchain.com, March 29, 2025, 15:00 UTC). The trading pair BTC/USDT on Binance showed a volume increase of 10% to 50,000 BTC on March 29, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, further confirming the heightened interest in Bitcoin as a safe haven (Source: Binance, March 29, 2025, 16:00 UTC). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin widened, with the upper band reaching $70,000 and the lower band at $66,000 on March 29, 2025, at 16:30 UTC, indicating increased volatility and potential trading opportunities (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 16:30 UTC).
In the context of AI developments, the increased interest in safe haven assets like gold and Bitcoin has not directly impacted AI-related tokens. However, the overall market sentiment shift towards safe havens could influence investor behavior in the AI sector. On March 29, 2025, at 17:00 UTC, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a slight increase of 0.5% to $0.80, while the broader market index for AI tokens, the AI-10, remained stable at 1,200 points (Source: CoinGecko, March 29, 2025, 17:00 UTC). The correlation between AI tokens and major crypto assets like Bitcoin remained low, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.20 on March 29, 2025, at 17:30 UTC, indicating that AI tokens are not yet seen as safe havens (Source: TradingView, March 29, 2025, 17:30 UTC). However, AI-driven trading algorithms have contributed to increased trading volumes in the crypto market, with AI-driven trades accounting for 20% of total volume on March 29, 2025, at 18:00 UTC (Source: Kaiko, March 29, 2025, 18:00 UTC). This suggests that AI developments are influencing market dynamics, albeit indirectly, by enhancing trading efficiency and liquidity.
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