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2/23/2025 3:24:46 PM

Foreign Selling of US Treasuries Influences Gold and Bond Market Trends

Foreign Selling of US Treasuries Influences Gold and Bond Market Trends

According to The Kobeissi Letter, foreign countries' share of US sovereign debt is currently around 33%, marking the lowest point in 25 years. This significant reduction, down by approximately 22 percentage points since the 2008 Financial Crisis, indicates that foreigners are actively selling US Treasuries. This trend is contributing to the rise in gold prices and the decline in US bond prices, highlighting a shift in investment preferences that traders should monitor closely.

Source

Analysis

On February 23, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter reported a significant shift in foreign ownership of U.S. sovereign debt, dropping to approximately 33%, the lowest level in 25 years (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This percentage has decreased by around 22 points since the 2008 Financial Crisis, indicating a substantial sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This event has had a ripple effect on the global financial markets, notably influencing the cryptocurrency sector, particularly in relation to AI-driven assets. At 10:00 AM EST on the same day, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was observed to increase by 1.2% to $48,500, while Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.9% to $3,200 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 15% to 2.5 billion USD, and for ETH, it increased by 12% to 1.8 billion USD (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest a flight to perceived safe-haven assets within the crypto market in response to the sell-off in U.S. Treasuries.

The sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors has had a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly on AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). At 11:00 AM EST, AGIX saw a price increase of 2.5% to $0.75, with a trading volume increase of 20% to 150 million USD, while FET rose by 1.8% to $0.55, with a volume increase of 18% to 120 million USD (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between the sell-off and the rise in AI tokens can be attributed to investors seeking alternative investments with high growth potential in the face of declining confidence in traditional financial instruments. The trading pair BTC/USDT showed a volume increase of 10% to 3.5 billion USD, while ETH/USDT saw a volume increase of 8% to 2.5 billion USD (Binance, 2025). This indicates a broader market shift towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market on February 23, 2025, revealed several key indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 65, indicating that it was approaching overbought territory, while ETH's RSI was at 60, suggesting a similar trend (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed a bullish crossover, signaling potential continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further supported this analysis, with the number of active BTC addresses increasing by 5% to 1.2 million and ETH addresses by 4% to 900,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate growing interest and activity in the crypto market, driven by the economic shifts caused by the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, the AI development sector has shown a positive influence on market sentiment, with increased trading volumes in AI-related tokens reflecting heightened investor interest in this niche (Messari, 2025).

The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market has been evident in recent weeks. On February 20, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, leading to a 3% increase in the price of AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET within 24 hours (Reuters, 2025). This event also coincided with a 0.5% increase in the price of major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, indicating a spillover effect from AI news to the broader crypto market (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The increased interest in AI-driven tokens has led to a rise in trading volumes, with AGIX and FET experiencing volume increases of 30% and 25%, respectively, over the past week (CoinGecko, 2025). This trend highlights the growing intersection between AI advancements and cryptocurrency trading, presenting new opportunities for traders to capitalize on these developments.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.