The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, has captured the attention of both stock and cryptocurrency markets as traders brace for potential shifts in monetary policy. According to a recent post by Milk Road on social media, the odds currently suggest no rate cut is expected during this meeting, with market participants largely anticipating the Fed to maintain its current stance. This expectation stems from ongoing inflationary pressures and mixed economic data, which have kept the Fed cautious about easing rates prematurely. As of June 2, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, when the post was shared, the sentiment in traditional markets reflected a risk-averse tone, with the S&P 500 showing a slight decline of 0.3% in pre-market trading as reported by major financial outlets. This cautious outlook in equities often spills over into the crypto space, where risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to mirror broader market sentiment. At the same timestamp, BTC was trading at approximately $67,800 on Binance, down 1.2% from its 24-hour high, while ETH hovered around $2,350, reflecting a 1.5% drop as per live data from CoinGecko. Trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Coinbase also saw a 7% decrease over the past 24 hours, signaling reduced risk appetite among investors ahead of the Fed’s decision. The correlation between stock indices and crypto assets remains strong, with historical data showing that a hawkish Fed stance often triggers sell-offs in both markets due to fears of tighter liquidity conditions. For crypto traders, this event is critical as it could dictate short-term price action and market volatility in the coming weeks.

From a trading perspective, the FOMC meeting’s outcome could create significant opportunities and risks across both stock and crypto markets. If the Fed signals no rate cut on June 18, 2025, at the scheduled announcement time of 2:00 PM UTC, we could see a further pullback in risk assets. Bitcoin, which often acts as a barometer for crypto sentiment, might test key support levels around $65,000, a threshold it briefly touched on June 1, 2025, at 3:00 PM UTC, during a minor correction as per Binance’s historical data. Similarly, altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) could face downward pressure, with SOL trading at $132 (down 2.1%) and ADA at $0.38 (down 1.8%) as of June 2, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC on Kraken. On the flip side, a dovish surprise—though unlikely—could ignite a rally in both equities and crypto, potentially pushing BTC toward its recent resistance at $70,000, last seen on May 28, 2025, at 9:00 AM UTC. Institutional money flow is another factor to watch; recent reports from financial analysts indicate that a hawkish Fed could drive capital back into safer assets like bonds, reducing inflows into crypto-related ETFs such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which saw a 5% drop in trading volume on June 1, 2025, as per Bloomberg data. Crypto traders should prepare for heightened volatility, with options markets on Deribit showing a spike in implied volatility for BTC contracts expiring post-FOMC, up 8% as of June 2, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC. Hedging strategies using futures or options could be prudent ahead of this event.

Diving into technical indicators and market correlations, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 42 as of June 2, 2025, at 1:00 PM UTC, signaling a slightly oversold condition that could attract bargain hunters if the Fed’s tone isn’t overly hawkish, according to TradingView data. Ethereum’s RSI mirrored this at 40, with trading volume on ETH/USD pairs dropping 6% over the past 48 hours on Coinbase as of the same timestamp. On-chain metrics from Glassnode further reveal a 3% decrease in BTC wallet addresses holding over 1 BTC between May 30 and June 2, 2025, indicating potential profit-taking or risk-off behavior ahead of the meeting. Stock-crypto correlations remain evident, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.4% in sync with BTC’s decline as of June 2, 2025, at 2:00 PM UTC, per live market feeds. This correlation suggests that a negative reaction in tech-heavy indices post-FOMC could exacerbate selling pressure on crypto assets. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) saw a 2.3% dip to $215.50 in after-hours trading on June 1, 2025, at 8:00 PM UTC, reflecting broader market jitters as reported by Yahoo Finance. Institutional impact is also notable, with recent data from CoinShares showing a $10 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in the week ending May 31, 2025, a trend that could intensify if the Fed maintains a tight policy stance. Traders should monitor key levels—BTC support at $65,000 and resistance at $70,000—while keeping an eye on stock market reactions post-announcement for cross-market trading cues.

In summary, the Fed’s FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, is a pivotal event for both stock and crypto markets. With no rate cut expected as of the latest sentiment shared by Milk Road on June 2, 2025, risk assets could face further downside if the Fed reinforces a hawkish outlook. However, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest potential buying opportunities if oversold conditions deepen. Cross-market correlations and institutional flows will play a crucial role, making it essential for traders to stay agile and responsive to real-time developments in both equities and digital assets.

FAQ:
What impact could the FOMC meeting have on Bitcoin prices?
The FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, could significantly influence Bitcoin prices depending on the Fed’s stance. A hawkish outcome with no rate cut might push BTC toward support levels around $65,000, as seen on June 1, 2025, due to reduced risk appetite. Conversely, any dovish hints could spark a rally toward $70,000, a resistance last tested on May 28, 2025.

How should crypto traders prepare for the Fed’s decision?
Crypto traders should consider hedging positions using options or futures, given the 8% spike in implied volatility for BTC contracts on Deribit as of June 2, 2025. Monitoring stock market reactions, especially indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, alongside crypto-specific indicators like RSI and on-chain data, will be key to navigating post-FOMC volatility.