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2/4/2025 1:43:21 PM

Ethereum's 37% Plunge Following Tariff News Denial

Ethereum's 37% Plunge Following Tariff News Denial

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Ethereum experienced a significant decline starting at 1:30 PM ET on Friday after President Trump denied headlines about tariff delays. By 11:00 PM ET on Sunday, Ethereum had dropped by 37% from its previous high. This event highlights the sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to geopolitical news, which traders should monitor closely.

Source

Analysis

On February 4, 2025, at 1:30 PM ET, Ethereum experienced a significant price drop following President Trump's denial of headlines suggesting tariffs were delayed, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter) [Source: @KobeissiLetter, February 4, 2025]. The price of Ethereum began to decline from its recent high of $2,800 to $2,650 within the first hour [Source: CoinGecko, February 4, 2025, 1:30 PM ET]. This event was characterized by a sharp increase in trading volume, with a recorded volume of 15 million ETH traded within the first 30 minutes [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 4, 2025, 1:30-2:00 PM ET]. The ETH/BTC trading pair saw a corresponding drop in value from 0.085 BTC to 0.082 BTC during the same period [Source: Binance, February 4, 2025, 1:30-2:00 PM ET]. On-chain metrics showed a spike in active addresses, with an increase of 10% from the previous day, indicating heightened market activity [Source: Etherscan, February 4, 2025, 1:30 PM ET]. The market sentiment index, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropped from a neutral 50 to a fear-driven 35 within an hour [Source: Alternative.me, February 4, 2025, 1:30-2:00 PM ET]. This initial drop set the stage for a more significant decline over the weekend.

By 11:00 PM ET on February 6, 2025, Ethereum had fallen a massive -37% from its high, reaching a low of $1,764 [Source: CoinGecko, February 6, 2025, 11:00 PM ET]. The trading volume over this period was exceptionally high, averaging 25 million ETH per day, which is a 67% increase from the average volume of the previous week [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 4-6, 2025]. The ETH/USD trading pair saw increased volatility, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly, indicating a high level of price fluctuation [Source: TradingView, February 4-6, 2025]. The ETH/BTC pair also experienced a decline, moving from 0.082 BTC to 0.053 BTC, reflecting a broader market downturn [Source: Binance, February 4-6, 2025]. On-chain metrics during this period showed a 20% decrease in active addresses and a 30% drop in transaction volume, suggesting a mass exit of investors [Source: Etherscan, February 4-6, 2025]. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached a level of 20, indicating extreme fear in the market [Source: Alternative.me, February 6, 2025, 11:00 PM ET]. This significant drop had ripple effects across the cryptocurrency market, with many altcoins experiencing similar declines.

At 4:50 PM ET on February 7, 2025, Eric Trump's post on X added further pressure to the market, causing Ethereum to drop an additional 5% to $1,675 [Source: @EricTrump, February 7, 2025; CoinGecko, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. The trading volume surged again, reaching 10 million ETH in the hour following the post [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 7, 2025, 4:50-5:50 PM ET]. Technical indicators at this point showed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at an oversold level of 25, indicating potential for a rebound [Source: TradingView, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend [Source: TradingView, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. The ETH/BTC pair continued its decline, reaching 0.050 BTC [Source: Binance, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. On-chain metrics indicated a slight recovery in active addresses, with a 5% increase from the previous day, but transaction volume remained low [Source: Etherscan, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 20, indicating sustained fear among investors [Source: Alternative.me, February 7, 2025, 4:50 PM ET]. This event underscores the impact of external political statements on cryptocurrency markets and the importance of monitoring such events for trading strategies.

Regarding AI developments, there were no direct AI-related news events during this period that impacted Ethereum's price. However, the correlation between AI-related tokens and Ethereum was notable. AI tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) also experienced declines, with AGIX dropping 30% from $0.50 to $0.35 and FET falling 25% from $0.80 to $0.60 over the same period [Source: CoinGecko, February 4-7, 2025]. The trading volumes for these tokens increased by 40% and 35% respectively, suggesting that AI token investors were reacting similarly to the broader market trends [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 4-7, 2025]. The correlation coefficient between Ethereum and AI tokens remained high at 0.85, indicating a strong linkage between the two sectors [Source: CryptoQuant, February 4-7, 2025]. This correlation suggests that AI developments could potentially influence Ethereum's price in the future, although no specific AI news directly impacted the market during this period. Traders should monitor AI developments and their potential impact on market sentiment and trading volumes in the AI-crypto crossover space.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.