Ether (ETH) is navigating a complex trading environment, characterized by a technical rebound from a sharp sell-off amid signs of wavering institutional confidence. The primary catalyst for recent bearish sentiment stems from the U.S. spot Ether ETF market. On Friday, these newly launched products recorded their largest single-day net outflow for June, totaling $11.3 million, according to detailed data from Farside Investors. This outflow suggests a cooling of institutional appetite following the initial excitement around the ETFs' approval. The price of ETH, trading around $2,534 on the ETHUSD pair, reflects this tension, showing a slight decline over the past 24 hours but holding above critical support levels established during the weekend recovery.

Institutional Jitters Rattle ETH ETFs

The institutional flow data reveals a divided market. The overall negative figure was driven almost entirely by a significant $19.7 million outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT fund, marking its first and only day of net selling this month. This move by a major player could signal profit-taking or a strategic de-risking from larger holders. However, the picture is not uniformly bearish. On the same day, Grayscale’s ETHE product, which has historically seen outflows, attracted a notable $6.6 million in new capital. Additionally, VanEck’s ETHV ETF saw a modest inflow of $1.8 million. This divergence indicates that while some large institutions may be reducing their exposure, others, possibly value-oriented or long-term investors, are using the price dip as a buying opportunity. This dynamic creates a push-and-pull effect on the market, contributing to the recent volatility and range-bound price action.

Technical Breakdown: ETH Price Defends Key Support

From a technical standpoint, Friday's price action was a classic case of a capitulation wick followed by a strong recovery. During the 17:00 UTC hour, Ether experienced a dramatic sell-off, with its price plunging to a session low of $2,372.85. This move was accompanied by an extraordinary spike in trading volume, which surged to nearly five times the daily average. Such high-volume sell-offs often mark a local bottom by flushing out weak hands. Immediately following this drop, buyers stepped in aggressively, establishing a robust support zone between $2,420 and $2,430. The validity of this support was confirmed by several subsequent retests on lower volume, a bullish sign indicating that selling pressure was exhausted and accumulation was underway. The 24-hour trading volume remained elevated, up nearly 19% from the 7-day average, underscoring the high level of interest at these price levels.

Charting the Recovery and Key Levels to Watch

Following the defense of its newfound support, ETH began to carve out a path to recovery. The price action formed a clear ascending trendline of higher lows, a short-term bullish structure. It successfully reclaimed 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement level measured from the peak of the sell-off, another positive technical signal. Bullish momentum was confirmed during the 08:00-09:00 UTC hours on Saturday, as another volume increase helped propel the price toward the $2,445 mark. Currently, ETH faces a significant band of resistance between $2,480 and $2,500. A decisive break above $2,500, especially on high volume, would be a strong confirmation of bullish continuation. Conversely, a failure to breach this resistance could see the price retest the $2,420 support. The ETH/BTC pair, trading around 0.02362, shows ETH holding its ground against Bitcoin, while the SOL/ETH pair at 0.068 indicates some relative strength in altcoins, suggesting a broader market recovery could support ETH's momentum. Traders should closely monitor the interplay between ETF flows and these critical technical levels to gauge the market's next directional move.