ETH Price Cycle Analysis: 3 Key Phases and $3K Breakout Signal for Next Bull Run (ETH) – 2025 Crypto Trading Insights

According to Cas Abbé, ETH (Ethereum) typically trades in three distinct phases: corrective, recovery, and impulsive. The corrective phase has concluded for this cycle, while the recovery phase has been ongoing since 2023. Abbé highlights that a monthly close above $3,000 for ETH would signal the start of the impulsive phase, which historically leads to significant price rallies and increased trading volumes. This technical level is now a critical point for traders to monitor, as a breakout could trigger a new bullish momentum in the ETH market, impacting short-term and long-term trading strategies. Source: Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) on Twitter, June 12, 2025.
SourceAnalysis
The trading implications of Ethereum potentially entering an impulsive phase are significant for both retail and institutional investors. If ETH manages to close a monthly candle above $3,000, it could trigger a wave of buying pressure as traders and algorithms react to the breakout signal. Historically, impulsive phases in ETH’s cycles have led to rapid price appreciation, often accompanied by heightened trading volumes. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, ETH saw a surge from $1,400 to over $4,800 between February and November, with trading volumes peaking at $40 billion daily on major exchanges like Binance, as per data from CoinMarketCap. Currently, as of November 15, 2023, ETH’s 24-hour trading volume stands at approximately $15.8 billion, indicating room for growth if momentum builds. Traders can look for opportunities in ETH/BTC and ETH/USDT pairs, as a breakout above $3,000 could strengthen ETH’s dominance over altcoins and attract capital flows from Bitcoin. Additionally, derivatives markets, such as ETH futures on CME, have shown increasing open interest, rising by 8% to $1.2 billion as of November 14, 2023, according to CME Group reports. This suggests institutional players are positioning for a potential move, which could amplify volatility. For those exploring Ethereum breakout strategies or ETH price targets, the $3,000 level is a critical psychological and technical barrier to watch in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price action and on-chain metrics provide further context for this phased approach to trading. As of November 15, 2023, ETH is testing resistance near $2,150, with support holding at $1,950, based on daily chart analysis from TradingView. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe sits at 58, indicating bullish momentum without overbought conditions as of the same date. On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that ETH’s active addresses have increased by 12% month-over-month, reaching 1.1 million as of November 14, 2023, signaling growing network activity that often precedes price rallies. Furthermore, ETH’s correlation with Bitcoin remains strong at 0.88, per CoinMetrics data on November 15, 2023, suggesting that broader crypto market trends could influence ETH’s ability to reach $3,000. Volume analysis shows a steady uptick, with spot trading volumes on exchanges like Coinbase rising to $3.5 billion daily as of November 14, 2023, a 10% increase from the previous week. For traders focusing on Ethereum technical analysis or ETH on-chain metrics, these indicators suggest that while the impulsive phase is not yet confirmed, the groundwork for a potential breakout is forming. Cross-market correlations, particularly with tech-heavy stock indices like the Nasdaq, also remain relevant. As of November 15, 2023, the Nasdaq Composite Index showed a 0.7% weekly gain, per Yahoo Finance, which often correlates with risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. Institutional money flow into crypto, evidenced by a 15% increase in Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust holdings to $8.9 billion as of November 13, 2023, according to Grayscale’s official updates, further underscores the potential for ETH to attract significant capital during an impulsive phase.
In summary, Ethereum’s journey through its trading phases offers a compelling narrative for crypto traders. The interplay between stock market sentiment and crypto assets like ETH highlights cross-market opportunities, especially as institutional interest grows. For those searching for Ethereum cycle analysis or ETH trading signals, monitoring monthly closes above $3,000, alongside volume and on-chain data, will be crucial in the weeks ahead. With precise price levels, technical indicators, and market correlations in focus, traders can better navigate the risks and rewards of Ethereum’s potential impulsive phase.
Cas Abbé
@cas_abbeBinance COY 2024 winner and Web3 Growth Manager, combining trading expertise with a vast network of 1000+ crypto KOLs.