According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, adjusted for gold, has decreased significantly from +3.9% to +0.2%. Despite the 'gold adjustment' that raises forecasts from -1.8% to +0.2%, the overall US GDP growth expectations have sharply declined. This suggests potential negative impacts on the market, as lower GDP growth can indicate weaker economic conditions.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this forecast has now decreased to a median of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also diminished.